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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:23 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Mon May 01, 2017 8:27 am 
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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Fri May 12, 2017 6:10 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:49 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Sun Jun 11, 2017 11:39 pm 
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Of note: the median rental price of a Dublin 1-bed apartment on daft.ie hit €1,500 for the first time. The decline in all arrears categories for PDHs has levelled out. Arrears of 90 days or less have increased for the second quarter in a row. We could be down to the difficult (and large) rump of mortgages that will never be rehabilitated.

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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 6:58 am 
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ps200306 wrote:
Arrears of 90 days orless have increased for the second quarter in a row. We could be down to the difficult (and large) rump of mortgages that will never be rehabilitated.


I think we've been there since about 2012!!!

In other news the jump in very early arrears shouldn't be a huge surprise given the very strong growth in new mortgages in recent years. Underwriting standards are no doubt higher since the boom and the economy is doing very well too. But still, some of these are going to get into arrears at some point, and the absolute increase is quite low.


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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Thu Jun 15, 2017 3:51 am 
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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Sat Jul 01, 2017 6:19 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Sat Jul 01, 2017 8:26 pm 
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Thanks for the updates PS. I always appreciate them. It's a great way of trending the madness of past couple of years. And there's a few more years of gas to be pumped into this explosion yet!


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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 02, 2017 1:13 am 
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FTBer wrote:
And there's a few more years of gas to be pumped into this explosion yet!

Tragic, but undoubtedly true. :(

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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Tue Jul 11, 2017 5:23 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 16, 2017 7:58 pm 
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Advertised rentals which are multiples of 1.04 have started to appear on daft in recent months (viewtopic.php?f=4&t=66983)

This seems to be a feature of new laws which prevent new rentals from being more than 4% of the previous one.

Maybe someone with a database and coding skills could mine it to discover when this trend began, and if it is on the rise.


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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:27 am 
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Skippy 3 wrote:
Advertised rentals which are multiples of 1.04 have started to appear on daft in recent months (viewtopic.php?f=4&t=66983)

This seems to be a feature of new laws which prevent new rentals from being more than 4% of the previous one.

Maybe someone with a database and coding skills could mine it to discover when this trend began, and if it is on the rise.

Interesting idea. We have to decide what multiple of 1.04 is 'suspicious'. Is 1300 suspicious, for example, being 1.04 x 1250 ? It might well not be. On the other hand, if we insist on 'odd' numbers like 1352 = 1.04 x 1300, we are probably discriminating too much. Integer multiples of 10 such as 1560 = 1.04 x 1500 are probably worthy of note, whereas we might treat integer multiples of 100 such as 1300 as 'accidents'.

Bearing that in mind, I went back to the Daft rentals for the last two years. There is a background low level of suspicious numbers from well before the rent caps were introduced -- numbers such as 1560 = 1.04 x 1500 and 3640 = 1.04 x 3500 crop up here and there. This could entirely by chance, or could be from when Baldy Noonan brought in PRSI on unearned income for PAYE workers in 2014. Maybe some accidental landlords will have passed this on to their tenants, but the frequency is too low to say anything for sure and my data only goes back to late 2015. The PRSI rate was 4%, unfortunately identical to the rent increase limit.

However, as you anticipated, we still get an interesting result when we graph the frequency of suspicious numbers post-rent-cap. As with my other graphs of rent levels, I've only included Dublin rentals with monthly asking prices. Expressed as percentages of total volume available to rent, the numbers are lowish but the trend is unmistakable:

Image
'Suspicious' rent price frequency

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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 5:55 am 
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Fascinating - many thanks!


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