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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:30 pm 
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Old Time Landlord

Joined: Oct 23, 2011
Posts: 397
dipole wrote:
Eschatologist wrote:
I/O tracker

another "performing" mortgage along with the hundreds of thousands of other "performing" mortgages.
The Irish banking system is rock solid.


indeed. surely the next big problem is these mortgages expiring - i.e I/O ten year tracker mortgages handed out in 06/07. They were relatively common in the jumbo mortgage market.

i know of a few characters who borrowed €2m+ I/O expiring this year. No chance of making capital repayments, houses still in deep negative equity.

any ideas how the banks are likely to handle these?


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 7:23 am 
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Nationalised
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Joined: Nov 6, 2006
Posts: 7916
Location: Australia
viewtopic.php?f=19&t=38320&p=506454&hilit=japan#p506454

Just to remind people about how it played out in Japan - they had their bubble burst in the early 90s followed by a build up of arrears that caused a second crisis years and years after the bubble burst

viewtopic.php?f=19&t=2281&p=374552&hilit=japan#p374552


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:23 am 
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Holiday Home Owner

Joined: Aug 21, 2007
Posts: 337
I think it's more likely that we'd see another outright crash here, given how prices have risen in the past 3-4 years.


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 7:20 pm 
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Old Time Landlord

Joined: Apr 27, 2014
Posts: 366
Barmiest Loon wrote:
dipole wrote:
Eschatologist wrote:
I/O tracker

another "performing" mortgage along with the hundreds of thousands of other "performing" mortgages.
The Irish banking system is rock solid.


indeed. surely the next big problem is these mortgages expiring - i.e I/O ten year tracker mortgages handed out in 06/07. They were relatively common in the jumbo mortgage market.

i know of a few characters who borrowed €2m+ I/O expiring this year. No chance of making capital repayments, houses still in deep negative equity.

any ideas how the banks are likely to handle these?


Under IFRS 9, they Banks will have to take the full loss in their P&L from 2018 onwards.

So:

Option 1 - Banks sell loans to third-parties who pursue debtors aggressively to get a return on their assets

Cue:

Howls of protests from the media on vulture funds benefitting from buying assets cheaply and then treating the poor Irish people like some bewhiskered Victorian villain landlord

Defaulters squatting outside their repossessed houses in Lidl tents

Gerry Beades and the rest of the New Land League occupying these bog-standard houses


Option 2 - Banks extend debt forgiveness to debtors

Cue:

Howls of protest that the Banks are supporting the rich


Option 3 - Banks try to repossess the properties using the Irish legal process

Cue:

Idiotic public comments from Ed Honahan

Numerous court hearings and delays and associated costs

Protests about Banks repossessing properties and sympathetic media profiles of the poor property owners


So lose/lose/lose.

One of the many reasons for the current state of the residential property market is the failure to repossess and force the hand of the strategic defaulters. This lack of liquidity and associated moral hazard is affecting all of us.


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 9:31 pm 
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Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Apr 29, 2009
Posts: 1391
Location: South County Dublin
Barmiest Loon wrote:
dipole wrote:
Eschatologist wrote:
I/O tracker

another "performing" mortgage along with the hundreds of thousands of other "performing" mortgages.
The Irish banking system is rock solid.


indeed. surely the next big problem is these mortgages expiring - i.e I/O ten year tracker mortgages handed out in 06/07. They were relatively common in the jumbo mortgage market.

i know of a few characters who borrowed €2m+ I/O expiring this year. No chance of making capital repayments, houses still in deep negative equity.

any ideas how the banks are likely to handle these?


asking for a friend?


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:11 pm 
Offline
Old Time Landlord

Joined: Oct 23, 2011
Posts: 397
AWAAF wrote:
Barmiest Loon wrote:
dipole wrote:
Eschatologist wrote:
I/O tracker

another "performing" mortgage along with the hundreds of thousands of other "performing" mortgages.
The Irish banking system is rock solid.


indeed. surely the next big problem is these mortgages expiring - i.e I/O ten year tracker mortgages handed out in 06/07. They were relatively common in the jumbo mortgage market.

i know of a few characters who borrowed €2m+ I/O expiring this year. No chance of making capital repayments, houses still in deep negative equity.

any ideas how the banks are likely to handle these?


asking for a friend?


Far from it. I have my eye on the house.


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