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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:30 pm 
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dipole wrote:
Eschatologist wrote:
I/O tracker

another "performing" mortgage along with the hundreds of thousands of other "performing" mortgages.
The Irish banking system is rock solid.


indeed. surely the next big problem is these mortgages expiring - i.e I/O ten year tracker mortgages handed out in 06/07. They were relatively common in the jumbo mortgage market.

i know of a few characters who borrowed €2m+ I/O expiring this year. No chance of making capital repayments, houses still in deep negative equity.

any ideas how the banks are likely to handle these?


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 8:23 am 
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viewtopic.php?f=19&t=38320&p=506454&hilit=japan#p506454

Just to remind people about how it played out in Japan - they had their bubble burst in the early 90s followed by a build up of arrears that caused a second crisis years and years after the bubble burst

viewtopic.php?f=19&t=2281&p=374552&hilit=japan#p374552


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:23 pm 
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I think it's more likely that we'd see another outright crash here, given how prices have risen in the past 3-4 years.


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 8:20 pm 
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Barmiest Loon wrote:
dipole wrote:
Eschatologist wrote:
I/O tracker

another "performing" mortgage along with the hundreds of thousands of other "performing" mortgages.
The Irish banking system is rock solid.


indeed. surely the next big problem is these mortgages expiring - i.e I/O ten year tracker mortgages handed out in 06/07. They were relatively common in the jumbo mortgage market.

i know of a few characters who borrowed €2m+ I/O expiring this year. No chance of making capital repayments, houses still in deep negative equity.

any ideas how the banks are likely to handle these?


Under IFRS 9, they Banks will have to take the full loss in their P&L from 2018 onwards.

So:

Option 1 - Banks sell loans to third-parties who pursue debtors aggressively to get a return on their assets

Cue:

Howls of protests from the media on vulture funds benefitting from buying assets cheaply and then treating the poor Irish people like some bewhiskered Victorian villain landlord

Defaulters squatting outside their repossessed houses in Lidl tents

Gerry Beades and the rest of the New Land League occupying these bog-standard houses


Option 2 - Banks extend debt forgiveness to debtors

Cue:

Howls of protest that the Banks are supporting the rich


Option 3 - Banks try to repossess the properties using the Irish legal process

Cue:

Idiotic public comments from Ed Honahan

Numerous court hearings and delays and associated costs

Protests about Banks repossessing properties and sympathetic media profiles of the poor property owners


So lose/lose/lose.

One of the many reasons for the current state of the residential property market is the failure to repossess and force the hand of the strategic defaulters. This lack of liquidity and associated moral hazard is affecting all of us.


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:31 pm 
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Posts: 1467
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Barmiest Loon wrote:
dipole wrote:
Eschatologist wrote:
I/O tracker

another "performing" mortgage along with the hundreds of thousands of other "performing" mortgages.
The Irish banking system is rock solid.


indeed. surely the next big problem is these mortgages expiring - i.e I/O ten year tracker mortgages handed out in 06/07. They were relatively common in the jumbo mortgage market.

i know of a few characters who borrowed €2m+ I/O expiring this year. No chance of making capital repayments, houses still in deep negative equity.

any ideas how the banks are likely to handle these?


asking for a friend?


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:11 pm 
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Joined: Oct 23, 2011
Posts: 454
AWAAF wrote:
Barmiest Loon wrote:
dipole wrote:
Eschatologist wrote:
I/O tracker

another "performing" mortgage along with the hundreds of thousands of other "performing" mortgages.
The Irish banking system is rock solid.


indeed. surely the next big problem is these mortgages expiring - i.e I/O ten year tracker mortgages handed out in 06/07. They were relatively common in the jumbo mortgage market.

i know of a few characters who borrowed €2m+ I/O expiring this year. No chance of making capital repayments, houses still in deep negative equity.

any ideas how the banks are likely to handle these?


asking for a friend?


Far from it. I have my eye on the house.


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu Feb 02, 2017 11:20 am 
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From Bloomberg:

Quote:
Soros’s Foundation Fights Irish Bankers Over Home Foreclosures

The billionaire investor’s Open Society Foundations is opening a new front in the fight against evictions as the legacy of one of the worst real-estate market crashes in history continues to haunt Ireland. About one in 10 Irish mortgages is in arrears, or 4.5 billion euros ($4.9 billion) of missed payments, and foreclosures tripled over the last five years.

“Essentially, we are aiming to apply a human rights approach in repossession cases,” said Marguerite Angelari, senior attorney at Soros’s organization. “It looks pretty easy to get a repossession order in Ireland. Based on European Union law, it shouldn’t be.”
...
While Angelari is based in Budapest, she’s spent the last nine months focusing on courtrooms 1,200 miles away in Dublin. Open Society is spending about 100,000 euros working with Irish lawyers and helping finance seminars across the country highlighting what it says is a failure of Irish courts to apply European law in eviction cases.

More...

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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu Feb 02, 2017 11:29 am 
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Of Systemic Importance

Joined: Nov 4, 2011
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It looks easy to get a repossession in Ireland!!!
And Bloomberg just let her say that without any kick back.

F-off and keep your nose out of internal Irish affairs.


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu Feb 02, 2017 11:47 am 
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It does _look_ relatively easy. It isn't at all easy, of course, but in principle there's a procedure to be followed and so on.


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu Feb 02, 2017 12:56 pm 
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Posts: 145
Location: D14
had to google a bit to get some sensible details:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-a ... -1.2918096
Might be that the courts are/were missing a step, but shouldn't change the outcomes (just delay for now).
Unless, of course, the mortgage contracts were flawed...

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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu Feb 02, 2017 1:03 pm 
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And we need a foreign Billionaire to tell our learned legal eagles that the contracts were flawed?

This is just another delaying tactic no doubt inspired by the army of well paid Social Studies graduates that Soros/Feeney have working for them here in Dublin


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2017 5:56 pm 
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Private Tenant

Joined: May 31, 2016
Posts: 49
marcexec wrote:
had to google a bit to get some sensible details:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-a ... -1.2918096
Might be that the courts are/were missing a step, but shouldn't change the outcomes (just delay for now).
Unless, of course, the mortgage contracts were flawed...


Those proceedings were not for repossession though, they were summary proceedings for a large loan debt.

The law and procedure to be followed is very much different for summary proceedings (for unsecured debts) than for possession proceedings (for secured debts whether it be for a family home or BTL).

The arguments being put forward by many mortgage debtors at the moment is that they have "cancelled their contracts" pursuant to (inapplicable and in any event, repealed) EU legislation. It is very much another delay tactic and misconstrued argument which unfortunately is only prolonging the inevitable and increasing the extent of their liabilities


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Mon Feb 06, 2017 9:29 pm 
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Are we looking at the start of the bonfire of the non-performing loans and strategic defaulters? Or just some smouldering damp paper?

The NPL statistics for various European countries are:

Code:
Country        Total      Households        NFC        SME        CRE
Greece             47%            44%        47%        66%        61%
Cyprus             45%            55%        55%        63%        44%
Ireland            19%            18%        26%        38%        44%
Slovenia           16%             6%        30%        43%        47%
Portugal           15%             8%        23%        31%        41%
Italy              12%            12%        16%        30%        36%
Spain               5%             4%         9%        18%        27%
Germany             2%             2%         4%         8%         5%


NFC = non-financial corporations
CRE = commercial real estate

Quote:
Remarks by Deputy Governor Sharon Donnery at Bruegel

Speaking at Bruegel on 3 February, Sharon Donnery discussed the resolution of Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) in the euro area. Sharon Donnery is Chair of the ECB’s High Level Group on Non-Performing Loans.

1. Introduction

Good morning, it is a pleasure to be here today at Bruegel to discuss the resolution of Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) in the euro area.

Different factors have contributed to the formation of non-performing loans across individual Member States. In Ireland and Spain, for example, NPLs were mainly driven by idiosyncratic shocks, namely the collapse of real-estate bubbles. Conversely, the roots of Italian NPLs can be found in the prolonged deterioration of the economy more generally and in the persistent reduction of its competitiveness.

Regardless, the deliberate and determined reduction in non-performing loans is essential for the viability of the European banking sector. It therefore constitutes a necessary condition for the recovery of the euro area economy.

The diverse causes underlying NPL formation, the multiple channels by which they can affect macroeconomic performance, as well as the high degree of heterogeneity across the European banking sector, call for a flexible approach in addressing Europe’s NPL problem. However, saying that an appropriate response should take into account the different context in which euro area banks operate, does not mean that we cannot adopt a consistent approach to the supervision of non-performing loans. This includes applying a common framework for NPL resolution across the Banking Union.

The most effective response should turn best practices into common standards for NPL management across the banking sector, while at the same time recognising the need for a granular approach. In this context, the ECB Guidance ‘sets the standard’ for NPL management going forward.

Today, in my brief introductory remarks, I will focus on how the Guidance provides a common standard for NPL management across the euro area, yet allows for the differing position of individual banks and takes into account the varying contexts in which they operate. I will highlight the necessity for experience and ownership at board level, the capacity gaps that exist in terms of implementation, and explain how we expect these to be addressed. Finally, I will briefly discuss a number of national practices that still pose a considerable challenge to the timely reduction in non-performing loans in some Member States. In this context, concerted action from all relevant stakeholders is needed to tackle this important issue.

2. The framework going forward

Following the Comprehensive Assessment in 2014, ECB Banking Supervision continued to focus on issues relating to asset quality through its ongoing supervisory engagement. Through the work of the SSM it became evident that different banks had been subjected to different intensities in the supervision of non-performing loans and that different Member States had implemented varying guidance in how banks should deal with workout and resolution. Therefore, the High Level Group on Non-Performing Loans – which I have the honour to chair - was mandated to develop a consistent supervisory approach to the treatment of NPLs. The Guidance – which represents ECB Banking Supervision’s expectations going forward - is an important step towards NPL reduction across the euro area.

The publication of the Guidance on NPLs was accompanied by an extensive consultation process which ended on 15 November 2016. We received nearly 700 comments on all chapters of the Guidance, all of which will be published. Since then, we have been reviewing both the comments submitted in written form and those provided during the public hearing, and we are now aiming to publish the final Guidance in Spring 2017.

Through the work of the High Level Group we identified a number of best practices relating to NPL management. These have been incorporated into the Guidance as the standard for NPL management going forward. A central principle of the Guidance is ‘tone from the top’. The resolution of non-performing loans rests firmly with the institutions themselves.

Management bodies must take full ownership of this problem. This includes the development, and approval of a strategy and operational plan to deliver the progress required. Furthermore, frequent and regular reporting to the board is necessary to ensure progress versus agreed targets is achieved.

However, in order to develop ambitious, yet realistic strategies to reduce NPLs, boards first need to gain a clear understanding of the full context in which they operate. It is clear, at present, many boards have not yet established this. From the bottom up, banks also need to examine the drivers and scale of non-performing loans. In doing so, they are expected to adopt an extremely granular approach. A careful assessment of the external environment, the resources available to debtors, as well as the internal operational capacities, will contribute to the identification of the most appropriate strategy to reduce non-performing loans.

To ensure effective implementation, we also expect banks to review their governance structures and operational arrangements against the benchmark laid down in the Guidance. Drawing from international best practice, the Guidance prescribes that banks should establish dedicated NPL workout units, separated from the loan granting functions.

The main rationale for this important separation is the elimination of potential conflicts of interest and to ensure the presence of staff with dedicated expertise and experience in NPL management. This separation of duties should encompass not only client relationship activities (e.g. negotiation of forbearance solutions with clients), but also the decision-making process. In this context, dedicated NPL committees should also be established.

Given the existing heterogeneity across the European banking sector, setting generic quantitative targets for NPL reduction in the strategies would have inevitably resulted in unrealistic targets for a number of banks. By contrast, if adapted to suit all situations, targets would have not been very ambitious. Therefore, we explicitly decided not to set a single threshold for NPL reduction.

Rather, taking into account the specificities in which banks operate, targets are required to be set using a portfolio-by-portfolio approach. The standard – outlined in the Guidance - prescribes that banks must articulate their NPL targets along three dimensions – (i) across time, (ii) by portfolio and, (iii) by implementation option chosen to drive the projected reduction.

Clearly defined quantitative targets in their NPL strategy, approved by the management body, will ensure ‘extend and pretend’ situations will not persist. The targets will require banks to segment non-performing loans and effectively manage them towards likely resolution outcomes (depending on borrower cooperation and business viability). Retail NPLs can remain stubbornly high, and commercial debt resolution strategies are likely to be complex and take significantly more time to devise and implement. Therefore, a case-by-case assessment is required to develop and agree bespoke sustainable solutions with distressed borrowers.

Allowing for bank-specific quantitative targets for NPL reduction does not mean that ECB Banking Supervision will not implement consistent supervisory standards.

The Joint Supervisory Teams (JSTs) will treat all banks in the same way when assessing both the degree of implementation and the ambitiousness of banks’ strategies. Furthermore, using peer analysis tools and techniques:

(i) we will analyse all banks strategies in a comparative context,

(ii) we will compare granular sets of indicators, allowing for a single and relative view on progress, and

(iii) we will benchmark by portfolio, by peer group and by Member State, to assess progress.

Our intrusiveness will depend on the scale and severity of the NPL challenges different banks face. With the JSTs, we will also organise regular onsite inspections of banks with high levels of NPLs to gauge progress. However, we will also take a proportionate approach where necessary. For example, banks with a high NPL concentration in certain parts of the business will be asked to put in place portfolio-specific non-performing loan reduction strategies, despite having an overall NPL level not considerably above the EU average.

Should supervisors find that the NPL strategies are either not appropriately implemented nor sufficiently ambitious, additional supervisory measures can be triggered on a case-by-case basis. Although the Guidance at present is non-binding in nature, any deviations from it will need to be explained. Supervisory expectations can be turned into binding requirements by implementing them as part of the Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process.

We expect the Guidance to become embedded in the ECB supervisory manual, thereby becoming business as usual supervision. We also expect markets to exert pressure on banks to take action, resulting from greater disclosure.

3. Capacity gaps

Looking at the operational capacity of banks, it is clear that many deficiencies exist. Turning first to the important issue of ‘tone from the top’, in some cases, the skills to deal with this issue at board level are significantly lacking. Board members will either need to upskill, or people with the appropriate skill-set will need to be appointed.

This is essential to ensure NPL strategies get sufficient attention and drive, and become fully embedded in the overarching objectives of banks.

Similarly, at an operational level, some institutions simply do not have enough people with effective arrears management experience to deal with this problem. Centralised specialist resources are needed. Therefore, realistically, some banks will have to bring in outside expertise. We saw this previously in some programme countries.

In terms of management and decision-making, full consideration of all available long-term options is necessary. However, this requires segmentation aligned to NPL workout. It also demands accessible documentation and considerable financial analysis, as well as frequent site visits to verify business and collateral. Complete and up-to-date data to assess performance and track KPIs is also essential to monitor workout progress and is critical to the effective implementation of the NPL strategies more generally.

However, it is clear considerable gaps in IT infrastructures also exist in some banks. In many cases data is simply not reliable or granular enough. For example, a key issue reported between the bid/ask price is data. Loan tapes need to include all the necessary information relating to the collateral and legal process to allow for cross-section and segmentation analysis.

The standard we have set in the Guidance, prescribes that all non-performing loan related data are securely stored in central IT systems. Where systems are not ‘fit for purpose’, banks will have to quickly put in place remediation plans to address these capacity gaps. As you know IT infrastructure plans can take some time to implement and require investment. Those plans will therefore also be subject to scrutiny by our Joint Supervisory Teams.

4. Coordinated response

Tackling Europe’s non-performing loan problem, however goes beyond the supervisory domain. Some reductions in non-performing loans have been noted across the euro area and a number of countries have taken proactive and coordinated prudential, judicial and other measures to tackle the issue. However, as shown by the Stocktake report, in some Member States a number of national practices and legal and judicial aspects still pose a considerable challenge to timely NPL reduction.

The inefficiencies of judicial systems are considered by the majority of the countries surveyed, as an obstacle to the speedy resolution of non-performing loans, due to capacity constraints of the courts. Other aspects that need to be addressed include (i) the lack of a modern legal framework for enabling timely out-of-court settlement, (ii) challenges related to both the corporate and the household insolvency system, and (iii) factors – such as the taxation regime or the accounting framework – that can also discourage NPL resolution.

The focus of the Guidance is on workout. And working out NPLs can create a pipeline for future sales, where possible. However, the underdevelopment of secondary debt markets also impedes non-performing loan resolution in most of the countries surveyed. Specific obstacles in the legal and regulatory framework appear to be the cause of such a market stagnation. This despite the fact that the majority of jurisdictions surveyed appear to have a framework favourable to transfer non-performing loans to third parties.

Joint action from all relevant stakeholders – including Member States, the Commission and EU fora - is therefore critical. In this context, we welcome initiatives – such as this - to connect the market, policy, and supervisory discussions on this topic and promote a dialogue between respective professional communities to define a shared agenda for NPL workout and resolution.

5. Conclusion

To conclude, we were given a clear mandate to deliver a consistent supervisory approach to the treatment of non-performing loans across the euro area. The Guidance delivers on this objective, by setting the standard for NPL management going forward. It ensures supervisors have the necessary tools available to them, and banks have the necessary capacity to tackle NPL problems.

However, publishing the Guidance is only the first step. Implementation is our next challenge and this will not happen overnight. We also need strong and clear support from Member States to tackle legal and related issues.

Boards will play a crucial role in developing, owning, and implementing bank specific strategies, and we expect pro-active engagement going forward.

As Madame Nouy has repeatedly emphasised, this will be reinforced by tough but fair supervision.

Thank you for your attention, I look forward to the discussion.



The Draft Guidance to banks on non-performing loans is available from:

https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.e ... nce.en.pdf

The ECB Stocktake of national supervisory practices and legal frameworks related to NPLs can be found is available from:

https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.e ... ing.en.pdf


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 1:11 pm 
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Posts: 5326
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Another announcement/launch by Coveney yesterday and he spent the day on every media outlet possible
The Mortgage to rent scheme that has flopped to date is getting a revamp ("217 transactions have been completed to date with a further 635 reaching conclusion")


Groups to buy struggling owners' homes and rent them back
http://www.independent.ie/business/pers ... 36362.html
Quote:
Two groups are set to buy distressed mortgages from banks and rent them back to those no longer able to make home-loan repayments.
Those who qualify and agree to the scheme could see their mortgage debts wiped out.
The homes would be leased to local authorities, with the owners becoming renters.
It comes after changes to the State's mortgage-to-rent scheme that now allows bulk-buying of mortgages to be rented back to those in deep arrears.
Some 34,000 mortgages are more than two years in arrears, with a serious risk of these houses being repossessed.
A group of businessmen with international financial backing, called Arizun, said they had up to €500m and could buy thousands of distressed mortgages.
Mortgage campaigner David Hall's ICare group is also preparing to buy up mortgages that are in arrears.
The funds are lining up to buy mortgages that are in long-term arrears from banks following changes to the State's mortgage-to-rent scheme...
...Arizun's chief executive Cathal O'Leary said the homeowners in arrears would have their outstanding mortgage debt cancelled. They would have the option to buy back the property at a later date, and would have a 40pc share in any rise in the property's valuation.
Asked if Arizun was not just another vulture fund, Mr O'Leary said: "We are writing off the entire mortgage debt. I don't know any fund prepared to do that, and we are providing a 20-year solution."
He said his fund could buy up to 5,000 distressed mortgages. A private lease arrangement could be arrived at for those who do not qualify for social housing.

The property could be bought back at current market value.

http://www.merrionstreet.ie/en/News-Roo ... tting.html
Quote:
The key changes to the scheme identified in the review are:
• Lenders will be required to formally communicate with borrowers as to why they are not suitable for the scheme.
• Flexibility will be provided in relation to the size of properties which qualify for the scheme. In practical terms, this means that an assessment of the property size suitable to a particular household will allow for a maximum of two additional bedrooms in the property above the actual needs of the household, with the property still being considered eligible.
• The property price thresholds for eligibility under the scheme will be increased in line with the acquisition thresholds for social housing generally. The threshold for a house in Cork, Dublin, Galway, Kildare, Louth, Meath and Wicklow is being increased to €365,000 while the threshold for an apartment / townhouse in these areas is being increased to €310,000. For the rest of the country, the threshold for a house is being increased to €280,000 and for an apartment / townhouse to €210,000. The most significant increases are in the more rural locations which is consistent with market findings. These thresholds will be subject to regular reviews taking account of the market at the time and will continue remain in line with the acquisition thresholds for social housing generally.


The likes of David Hall and the Phoenix Project welcomed this move yesterday (no surprise there from David Hall as he's looking to get involved in buying some of these mortgages).
But the Phoenix Project said they'd like the €365k threshold in Dublin raised higher as well as a higher cap on incomes which they feel are set to low currently (I think I heard 40k mentioned yesterday).

This was discussed on The Last Word last night. BB from AAM was on and said he couldn't get his head around this....if your 1 of the 35,000 in long term arrears and paying very little, how would having a new owner of your debt change things? Unless the write down 'encouraged' you to start paying again if you were indeed int he position to do so.
The guy from Arizun said they'd be renting the houses at current rental rates. And given where rents are at, how can people afford to pay that either!

We're getting to the stage where they might as well just throw the houses to them for free and be done with it. It's heading in that direction


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 1:17 pm 
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I must say that I find it heartwarming that David Hall has once again found a way to monetize his concern for his fellow man.


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