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Public Emotional response to the house market
Poll ended at Tue Jan 17, 2017 5:30 am
Optimism 20%  20%  [ 8 ]
Excitement 18%  18%  [ 7 ]
Thrill 5%  5%  [ 2 ]
Euphoria 8%  8%  [ 3 ]
Anxiety 10%  10%  [ 4 ]
Denial 3%  3%  [ 1 ]
Fear 3%  3%  [ 1 ]
Desperation 5%  5%  [ 2 ]
Panic 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Capitulation 3%  3%  [ 1 ]
Despondency 3%  3%  [ 1 ]
Depression 3%  3%  [ 1 ]
Hope 10%  10%  [ 4 ]
Relief 13%  13%  [ 5 ]
Total votes : 40
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 Post subject: Q1 2017: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Mon Jan 02, 2017 5:30 am 
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Property Magnate

Joined: Jan 4, 2012
Posts: 547
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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2017: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:54 am 
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Real Estate Developer

Joined: Jul 9, 2008
Posts: 978
Location: In the Sandpit.
Back at home for Xmas - from talking to people I kept hearing words "the boom is back". I think it has half-sarcastic sometimes, but there was a lot of references to increasing traffic on the roads etc.
In short, a cautious sort of optimism was around. That said, my dad reckoned I should stay away another year or two, to understand how Brexit will impact Ireland.


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2017: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Mon Jan 02, 2017 12:09 pm 
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Neo Landlord

Joined: Nov 30, 2011
Posts: 271
If you are seriously thinking of moving back , do it in the next 6 months.


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2017: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:40 am 
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Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Apr 15, 2008
Posts: 1032
Definitely at Optimism in my opinion, based on how I hear people talking about housing. People tell us we bought at the right time - but not in terms of minimizing what we paid, rather in terms of speculation about what it 'must' be worth now.


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2017: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:53 am 
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Neo Landlord

Joined: Nov 30, 2011
Posts: 271
jammyBastard wrote:
Definitely at Optimism in my opinion, based on how I hear people talking about housing. People tell us we bought at the right time - but not in terms of minimizing what we paid, rather in terms of speculation about what it 'must' be worth now.



Would have to agree , all the indications point to a year of price growth , particularly below the 500k mark.


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2017: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2017 12:00 pm 
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Single Home Owner

Joined: Sep 27, 2013
Posts: 189
I selected relief just because I am glad to be out of the market. To me it doesnt matter what way property market goes from here. Down would be my preference because it would make the gaps between any future upgrade less than what it currently is now.


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2017: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2017 12:03 pm 
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Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Jan 28, 2013
Posts: 1336
Everyone is bullish and the papers are stuffed with forever-upwards projections. I fully understand the supply dynamics driving the market but all this is presented against a backdrop of severe global problems, any one of which can spill over into a fully blown deflationary 2008-style crisis at any moment, what can possibly go wrong??


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2017: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2017 12:09 pm 
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Too Big to Fail

Joined: Sep 13, 2012
Posts: 4705
Scratcher wrote:
Everyone is bullish and the papers are stuffed with forever-upwards projections. I fully understand the supply dynamics driving the market but all this is presented against a backdrop of severe global problems, any one of which can spill over into a fully blown deflationary 2008-style crisis at any moment, what can possibly go wrong??

Sure, but it's worth remembering that outside Ireland, things looks genuinely rosy in the mid-2000s and then the GFC happened. So how things look is not a useful indicator. And you're a permabear so everything always looks awful. :D

What is necessary is a brake on leverage to ensure that when crises do happen, people aren't overexposed. We have that with the recently weakened LTI/LTV rules. They are the last remaining defence against a proper credit-driven bubble.

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"It's easy to confuse what is with what ought to be, especially when what is has worked out in your favour"
Tyrion Lannister


Last edited by Eschatologist on Tue Jan 03, 2017 12:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2017: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2017 12:37 pm 
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Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Jan 28, 2013
Posts: 1336
Eschatologist wrote:
Scratcher wrote:
Everyone is bullish and the papers are stuffed with forever-upwards projections. I fully understand the supply dynamics driving the market but all this is presented against a backdrop of severe global problems, any one of which can spill over into a fully blown deflationary 2008-style crisis at any moment, what can possibly go wrong??

Sure, but it's worth remembering that outside Ireland, things looks genuinely rosy in the mid-2000s and then the GFC happened. So how things look is not a useful indicator. And you're a permabull so everything always looks awful. :D

What is necessary is a brake on leverage to ensure that when crises do happen, people aren't overexposed. We have that with the recently weakened LTI/LTV rules. They are the last remaining defence against a proper credit-driven bubble.


I think you meant 'permabear' and no things did not look rosy, I was one of the many voices warning that the unprecedented amounts of credit sloshing around the world was going to cause major problems. I have also being pointing out that policy responses to the fall-out of that credit bubble are also causing major distortions and will end badly. I appreciate your argument that we don't have a credit driven bubble in Irish property and I agree. However we are a boom-bust economy heavily exposed to external shocks and 600K+ for badly built Dublin semi-Ds is plain stupid and unsustainable. The paddies can think what they want, they have a property bubble in big cities, like it or not.


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2017: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:30 pm 
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Real Estate Developer

Joined: Mar 17, 2008
Posts: 875
Please note my comments all relate to Dublin. To be honest if I was looking to buy I would be in the place called 'Hope'. But I think we're in denial in a second cycle since 2007. I think the current prices are pushing the ceiling of affordability for buyers with mortgages. Its looking like there will be roughly the same number of sales in Dublin as last year and prices are higher suggesting we still have a shortfall in supply.

Its quite obvious that the Government (if you could call it that) is going to keep answering to it's cronies (and it's own members vested interests) by keeping prices high. Thing is I think they've drained every source of property finance available. Yields for the big guys are probably pretty much peaking - they know its a long game and that you have to full out before the peak while there is still a greater fool available. They can probably see better opportunities elsewhere - these guys don't look for 20% profits - they look for 50-100% and a quick turnaround (in property thats 3 to 5 years).

The other thing with high prices is that if you reduce the risk appetite of the banks then salaries have to increase to meet the new prices, either that or you need inflation to erode the debt, or interest rates have to rise to meet the risk. My guess is that salaries are going to increase in Europe as the ECB realises that trying to stimulate the economy by feeding money to the rich doesn't work (it inflates asset prices) and is going to encourage wage rises for the working poor (they will spend more of their money). This will cause inflation and allow them to raise interest rates and stifle any potential credit-fuelled boom.

The government is also losing credibility on housing as the children of the middle class post-baby-boomers look to buy houses and find they can't. Their parents are mainly in negative equity (either on their own home or a rental) so can't top up their kids mortgage. They will have to act but they will do so as slowly as possible.

So how do I think this will work out? I think that the only effects that we can rely on will be the external ones - principal amongst these will be interest rates. Trumps presidency, Brexit and a likely increase in oil prices will all fuel inflation and therefore make interest rate rises likely. Domestically there will be wage inflation (both public and private sector) - there will also be an increase in housing supply but this will come later in the year and may be restricted if interests rates rise and prices start to fall.

Since we've continued to concentrate wealth then higher end prices will continue to rise but the higher end will slip higher as the concentration of wealth increases. I can see places like Ranelagh (with small terraced houses and on-street parking) slipping out of that higher end (which will probably concentrate on refurbished pre-63s in the likes of Rathmines and Rathgar).

All in all I'd say at most 5% increases on stuff under 500k, 5% decreases on stuff from 500k to 1.5m, 10% increases over 1.5m (Dublin only). These changes will be front-loaded on the year, and prices will start to decline towards the end of the year. Overall maybe 1-2% increase in Dublin on the year but this time next year we will definitely be looking at a declining market. I will, of course, be totally wrong!


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2017: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 7:30 am 
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Real Estate Developer

Joined: Jul 9, 2008
Posts: 978
Location: In the Sandpit.
Belview wrote:
If you are seriously thinking of moving back , do it in the next 6 months.


:D 2006 all over again...
Unless you are serious? If so I'd like to know why.


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2017: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:05 am 
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Too Big to Fail

Joined: Sep 13, 2012
Posts: 4705
Scratcher wrote:
I think you meant 'permabear' and no things did not look rosy, I was one of the many voices warning that the unprecedented amounts of credit sloshing around the world was going to cause major problems.

Sorry, my typo (fixed). You were right then and you may be right now, but a general warning falls short of a useful prediction for someone deciding on how to satisfy their housing need.

_________________
"It's easy to confuse what is with what ought to be, especially when what is has worked out in your favour"
Tyrion Lannister


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2017: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 3:34 pm 
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Private Tenant

Joined: Mar 14, 2015
Posts: 49
We bought in 2015 and did 3 months of renovation work.. a week after moving in we had an EA tell us that he could make us 125K profit it we put it back on the market.

He came back just before christmas to see if we were interested, he said we could now make 175K if not more.. as the "market is going to explode in 2017"


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2017: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 3:51 pm 
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Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Oct 19, 2010
Posts: 2478
Location: Dublin SE
Gone are the days when we seemed perpetually stuck in the Fear / Denial phase!

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