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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 3:15 am 
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Sidewinder wrote:
The music scene is good, the beer is good, the wimmins are smokin' hot,

Be careful out there :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 9:59 am 
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catbear wrote:
Be careful out there :lol:


:lol: That was great, NZ ads are brilliant, on a completely different theme there's this one:


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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 9:44 pm 
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Location: Local bubble zone
Bidding wars

Quote:
A four-month battle through Auckland's real estate auction rooms stretched Gareth Berry's budget from $400,000 to $880,000 before he finally landed his first family home.

Mr Berry, a 35-year-old technology entrepreneur, was spurred by the birth of his second child to visit more than 200 open homes and bid on dozens of houses, wading through a crazy housing market that has surged to record highs.

"It's nuts out there, and it's not going to change anytime soon," Mr Berry said. "I lost my rag a little bit. Didn't 'lose it' lose it - but at two of the auctions I missed out on, I stormed out in frustration."

He first began looking to move out of his two-bedroom Newmarket apartment last year - but the rentals he was interested in were $700 to $900 a week.

He thought it was only because of the World Cup, but then the tournament ended and he realised he would be better off buying.

Mr Berry started looking around the $400,000 mark but could find nothing in central suburbs such as Mt Albert or Onehunga.

"I thought, Eh? Have I missed something here?"

He wanted to be close to his parents, who lived centrally, and prioritised school zones and being close to kindergartens.

So he went to his parents for a $200,000 loan and had no problem getting finance with banks offering 5.1 per cent fixed interest for three years.

Armed with that cash he had a new top limit of $900,000 - but the search did not get any easier.

One of the first houses Mr Berry attempted to buy was in Onehunga with a CV of $520,000. It had been renovated and a builder gave him some advice: "Keep like a school boy and keep your hand up. It's the best house I've seen."

It was his first auction and he bid up to $680,000 - already $160,000 above the valuation - before he finally gave up.

"But a month later it would have sold for more than $700,000 ... If we knew back then what we know now ..."

He battled for four months, looking around the central suburbs and even the North Shore. A hundred people could turn up on some auction nights.

A house that did not even have a kitchen went for $785,000 while a Mt Albert home with a CV of $760,000 went for $1.34 million, he said.

"The auction was packed with so many people thinking they had a chance in the $900,000s."

Mr Berry visited nine open homes every Saturday and Sunday with his 3-year-old daughter, spending more than $200 a weekend on petrol in the process. Of the almost 20 possibilities a week, he picked about five for a shortlist and bid on two.

One week, when, incidentally, he had had his gall bladder removed and was "high on codeine", he bid against a 90-year-old man up to $880,000.

He lost, but an agent saw him at the auction and learned his budget. The agent later contacted him about a Mt Albert house about to come on to the market with a valuation of $630,000.

Mr Berry put in a conditional offer before the first open home. After a builder's report, he put in an unconditional offer, one of five offers on the first day of open homes. "They came back to me and said, if you can pay this much, you can have it."

And finally after paying $880,000 he had his weekends back.

"Forget the valuations. Just find the property you want and know how much money you have to spend and just spend it," Mr Berry said.

BIDDING WARS

Some of Mr Berry's losing auctions:

* Onehunga 4 bedrooms
Valuation $520,000
Winning bid: $681,000

* Onehunga 4 bedrooms
Valuation $650,000
Winning bid: $735,000

* Mt Albert 4 bedrooms
Valuation: $760,000
Winning bid: $1,340,000

His winning bid:

* Mt Albert 3 bedrooms
Valuation: $630,000
Bid: $880,000


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news ... d=10799360

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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 10:05 pm 
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Flipping hell :shock:

Quote:
the rentals he was interested in were $700 to $900 a week.

Quote:
And finally after paying $880,000


According to here https://apps.anz.co.nz/calculators/repayments/ 880k @ 5.74% over 30 years is 1,183 a week... I don't suppose it was a 100% mortgage, but even so.

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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 10:06 pm 
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It's all so depressingly familiar. What is it about property bubbles and humans anyway?

Take that JAFA now (Just Another F***ing Aucklander, see I'm picking up the local slang already :-) )

To start with (if he even exists and wasn't just invented for the purposes of a morkesh-shilling article, oh the cynicism, and I was such a cheerful child) he's "Mr Berry, a 35-year-old technology entrepreneur" and unless I've just gone senile don't the old metrics of around 90% of tech start-ups failing within the first 4-5 years still hold true? And he's signing up for a Bob-knows-how-many-decades mortgage? And then there's all the usual Laddermania nonsense and the McCreevy-esque "Just find the property you want and know how much money you have to spend and just spend it" but what made me LOL was him a-cribbin' and a-moanin' about the rent but happily signing up to pay a mortgage that, including the interest payments, would pay his rent for about the next 40 years.

Seriously, at this stage I consider anyone who buys into property bubbles to be dangerously stupid and not someone you want within a million miles of you and your day-to-day business. Idiots like this will be nothing but trouble, all the time. If this means I have to keep 80% of humanity at arm's length, then so be it - it's probably worth it just to not have to put up with listening to all the BS and attempts at picking my pocket or pleading for my cash to dig them out of their latest get-rich-quick scam-gone-wrong. My new policy - the minute I hear anyone talking Ladderology they become an unfriend to be avoided. We'll see how I get on with that, twill be an interesting little Pin social experiment :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 10:11 pm 
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Sidewinder wrote:
he's "Mr Berry, a 35-year-old technology entrepreneur" and unless I've just gone senile don't the old metrics of around 90% of tech start-ups failing within the first 4-5 years still hold true?

Ah, I'd assumed it was you gone to the dark side... :D

Seriously, though, you do know what a tech entrepreneur is, don't you? It's what you are and I were, er, was - self-employed in the IT industry on rolling contracts for as long as the particular bit we are plugged into is hot. Er, that's it.

He's probably a Cobol programmer at a bank and so set for life :D

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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 10:25 pm 
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LOL, yeah a contractor on short-term contracts and piecework, feck when the crash happens that guy is so screwed :lol: I don't think this violates the no-glee policy cos I'm fairly sure the guy doesn't even exist and some bubble-head journalist just invented him...it'll be interesting watching the crash here from a more disinterested neutral position. I'll probably find the whole thing hilarious, but it will be interesting seeing on a scale of 0 to Fianna Fail just how incompetent and corrupt the local pols are.

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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 10:30 pm 
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Sidewinder wrote:
LOL, yeah a contractor on short-term contracts and piecework, feck when the crash happens that guy is so screwed :lol: I don't think this violates the no-glee policy cos I'm fairly sure the guy doesn't even exist and some bubble-head journalist just invented him...it'll be interesting watching the crash here from a more disinterested neutral position. I'll probably find the whole thing hilarious, but it will be interesting seeing on a scale of 0 to Fianna Fail just how incompetent and corrupt the local pols are.

:lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2012 12:39 am 
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Quote:
One week, when, incidentally, he had had his gall bladder removed and was "high on codeine", he bid against a 90-year-old man up to $880,000.

He lost, but an agent saw him at the auction and learned his budget. The agent later contacted him about a Mt Albert house about to come on to the market with a valuation of $630,000.

Mr Berry put in a conditional offer before the first open home. After a builder's report, he put in an unconditional offer, one of five offers on the first day of open homes. "They came back to me and said, if you can pay this much, you can have it."

And finally after paying $880,000 he had his weekends back.

If those details are true then this guy deserves to have his capital allocation privileges revoked. XX


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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2012 10:00 am 
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Sidewinder wrote:
catbear wrote:
Be careful out there :lol:


:lol: That was great, NZ ads are brilliant, on a completely different theme there's this one:




Flight of the Conchords is genius if you havent seen it before


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House prices are cyclical, no nation has ever lived through a perpetual house price expansion or contraction.
Money is a public good; as such, it lends itself to private exploitation - CP Kindleberger


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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Sat Apr 21, 2012 10:19 pm 
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China allowed to buy New Zealand farmland -> http://www.aljazeera.com/video/asia-pac ... 56740.html

Quote:
After a year-long legal battle, China will be allowed to buy farmland in New Zealand.
China says the deal, allowing foreign countries to own parts of New Zealand's biggest industry, makes sense for both countries.
The sale has worried many people in New Zealand who feel the country may be selling off its most vital industry in pursuit of quick profits.
Some experts say such purchases are less about business and more about rich countries securing their own food supply at the expense of less well-off nations.

there is more

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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2012 8:07 pm 
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28-story hotel for Dunedin (population 120,000) ?

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/secret-dun ... -ch-118663


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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Sun May 27, 2012 7:07 am 
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Fingallian wrote:
28-story hotel for Dunedin (population 120,000) ?

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/secret-dun ... -ch-118663


Nice find. Now if we use this as a timeline calibration device and benchmark it to the Dunnester's Ballsbridge fiasco then that would make it around July 2005 here, so maybe another 18 months of lunacy to go yet :D

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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Sun May 27, 2012 9:26 am 
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Sidewinder wrote:
Fingallian wrote:
28-story hotel for Dunedin (population 120,000) ?

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/secret-dun ... -ch-118663


Nice find. Now if we use this as a timeline calibration device and benchmark it to the Dunnester's Ballsbridge fiasco then that would make it around July 2005 here, so maybe another 18 months of lunacy to go yet :D


Andrew Lawrence developed a theory of tall buildings and business cycles.

http://mises.org/daily/3038

The theoretical baisis is the effects of increases in the money supply on interest rates, relative price levels and time preferences. These are known as "Cantillon Effects" as they were first described by Irish economist Richard Cantillon (c1680-1734).

http://mises.org/page/1472/Biography-of ... n-16801734

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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 12:28 am 
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Central Bank Governor warns house prices overvalued

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/7426164 ... B-governor

Prices (and rents) in Welly at least are still in loonytunes territory. A good 30% to come off both in the next few years I'd say.

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