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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 12:27 am 
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The reason why many people feel that they haven't benefitted from the Australia's long stretch of economic expansion, is quite simply because they haven't.

Their pay packets haven't gotten bigger while the cost of essential goods like shelter have risen.

High migration makes it nearly impossible for Australia to fall into recession.

The economy keeps getting bigger just because there are more people operating in it.

It's great for business, because it keeps wages low and there's more people to buy stuff from them.

It's great for governments because it means economic growth looks better than it otherwise would.

But it isn't necessarily good for ordinary workers.

As new Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has noted, the role of good economic policy should be to "raise living standards" - not just make the population, and therefore economy, bigger.


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Australia has ridden 25 years of economic growth without a recession.

A huge increase in migration has fuelled headline GDP growth, keeping Australia technically out of recession. But, it's also masked a dirty secret, individuals haven't felt the benefit of this record run.



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http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-19/h ... ne/8193628


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2017 3:00 am 
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http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/ ... 3de9efe52d

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Seven Signs Australians Are Facing Economic Armageddon

Sign 1: Record Australian Household Debt


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Quote:
Sign 2: Record Australian Net Foreign Debt
Australia’s net foreign debt now stands at more than $1 trillion and as a proportion of Gross Domestic Product was at a record high of 63.3% in June 2016.


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Quote:
Sign 3: Record Low Interest rates
Sign 4: Australian Housing Bubble
Sign 5: Significant Increases in Global Debt


Sign 6: Major International Asset Bubbles

the Shiller PE Index in the United States which measures the price of a company’s stock relative to average earnings over the past 10 years is now at 28.85. This is the third highest recorded behind the Tech Bubble in 1999 and “Black Tuesday” in 1929

Sign 7: Global Derivatives Bubble

According to the Bank for International Settlements, the value of the over the counter derivatives market (notional amounts outstanding) stood at US$544 trillion.

Much of these derivatives contracts are concentrated on the balance sheets of leading global financial and banking institutions such as Deutsche Bank. The concentration of complex derivative contracts on bank balance sheets poses significant risks to both individual institutions and the global financial system.

Veteran Investor Warren Buffet has repeatedly warned that derivatives are “financial weapons of mass destruction” and could pose as a “potential time bomb”.

And to top it all off, Mr Adams believes the current policies being pursued by Treasurer Scott Morrison are “negligent in addressing the big economic elephants in the room”.

So there you have it. Pay off your mortgages, stock up on canned goods, and don’t say you weren’t warned.


http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/ ... 3de9efe52d


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Mon Feb 20, 2017 12:17 am 
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There has been no stopping the red-hot Sydney weekend home auction market so far this year and it recorded another boom-time result at the weekend.

Sydney recorded its second consecutive boom-time result at the weekend with a clearance rate of 83.1 per cent, which was just below the previous weekend’s 84.2 per cent and well ahead of the 76.8 per cent over the same weekend last year.

Higher auction numbers failed to dampen the Sydney market. About 675 home were listed on Saturday, which was well ahead of the 546 auctioned the previous Saturday and the 558 offered over the same weekend last year.
A total of $460.9 million of property was reported sold at auction in Sydney at the weekend.

The most expensive property reported sold at auction was a five-bedroom home at 47 Stanley Street, Chatswood, which was sold for $4.955 million by LJ Hooker Willoughby and Artarmon.


https://www.domain.com.au/news/sydney-p ... 19-gug7zc/


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Mon Feb 20, 2017 4:21 am 
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In 2016, Chinese developers acquired almost 40 percent of the Australian residential sites that were offered to the marketplace. All these properties are offered exclusively to Asia and these properties are not available for local buyers.


WTF is Australia doing?

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http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/robe ... imeon.html
Quote:
Unfortunately, it appears the great Australian dream is coming to an end.

Future generations increasingly will only be able to afford real estate through inheritance — creating class divisions — unless there is a major overhaul of the tax system, or a collapse in prices.

In the meantime, don't believe anyone who claims they have an easy and painless way to make housing affordable.

It just doesn't exist.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-20/h ... re/8284646

This is quite different to Ireland in the sense that there are loads of commentators saying this is going to destroy the economy


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Tue Feb 21, 2017 2:11 am 
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Enter the debt/bubble economy at the expense of the real economy

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Business numbers up 2.4% from June 2015

Nationwide, the Construction industry accounted for the largest growth in business counts, increasing by 3.5 per cent (11,967 businesses) from June 2015 to June 2016. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing had the largest total decrease in the number of businesses (2,737 businesses).

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%40.n ... enDocument

Quote:
DECEMBER KEY POINTS


FINAL DEMAND (EXCL. EXPORTS)
◾rose 0.5% in the December quarter 2016.
◾mainly due to rises in the prices received for Building construction (+0.7%), Petroleum refining and petroleum fuel manufacturing (+12.5%) and Accommodation (+5.3%).
◾partly offset by falls in the prices received for Electronic equipment manufacturing (-1.5%), Professional and scientific equipment manufacturing (-2.1%) and Other machinery and equipment manufacturing (-1.8%).


http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf ... enDocument


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Wed Feb 22, 2017 12:40 pm 
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Construction work failed to bounce back in the December quarter so it's unlikely to have boosted economic growth, economists say,.

The amount of construction work done fell 0.2 per cent in quarter and 7.8 per cent on an annual basis, the Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed on Wednesday.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/la ... 38f6688595

Quote:
Total building work done on homes and non-residential buildings such as offices and shops rose 1.3 per cent in the quarter.

Engineering work done, which includes mines, roads and bridges, was down 2.2 per cent in the December quarter.
- See more at: http://www.skynews.com.au/business/busi ... MgOGi.dpuf

http://www.skynews.com.au/business/busi ... falls.html

Quote:
Private-sector wage growth has slid to a record low of just 1.8 per cent, throwing into doubt budget projections and confounding the Reserve Bank, which would prefer not to have to cut interest rates again and run the risk of reigniting house prices.

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe identified house prices as a block on further interest-rate cuts on Wednesday, telling a business gathering that he hoped current rates would "generate stronger growth and we can avoid a further upward pressure on housing prices".


The Bureau of Statistics report shows mining industry wages growing by a record low 1 per cent. Wages in the rental, hiring and real estate industries grew just 1.2 per cent

The fastest growth was in the healthcare and social assistance and education industries, where wages climbed 2.4 per cent.

"Across all industries, annual growth was in a tight 1 to 2 per cent range, underscoring a pattern of compression," Mr Peters said.

Public-sector wages continued to grow more rapidly at 2.3 per cent, leaving combined public and private-wage growth unchanged at a record low 1.9 per cent. The figure is well below the 2.5 per cent forecast for the year to June in last year's May budget and also below the lower forecast of 2.25 per cent in the December budget update.

Wage growth typically delivers around $1.9 billion per year to the government in co-called bracket creep as more of each wage is pushed into a higher tax bracket.


http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/ ... uifjc.html


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Wed Feb 22, 2017 9:34 pm 
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Dick Smith blames “ridiculous immigration” for the lack of affordable housing, saying young couples are being robbed of the right to the great Australian dream.

The entrepreneur told Sky News that all the country’s problems, including Sydney’s congested roads, are due to an immigration increase that he says sees about 200,000 migrants arrive in Australia each year.

“We’re told, and you think, that each generation is going to be better off, and yeah, you can buy more LCD TV sets and you can fly to Bali cheaper but the most fundamental right is to get a house with a backyard and young couples can’t do that anymore,” Smith says.

“It’s purely driven in 95 percent of the cases by the enormous population increase, [which is] mainly driven by ridiculous immigration.”


https://startsat60.com/trending/news/bu ... affordable

Quote:
“The main point that’s driving our unaffordable housing is about 200,000 immigrants come in a year. That’s five jumbo loads a week that go out empty,” he told Sky News.

“All of our problems are from this unbelievable population increase. You can’t drive in Sydney at the moment. The housing prices are enormous.

“The most fundamental right is to get a house with a backyard. Young couples can’t do that anymore, purely driven in 95% of cases by the enormous population increase, mainly driven by ridiculous immigration.”


http://www.businessinsider.com.au/dick- ... lia-2017-2


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2017 11:03 am 
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I find Dick Smith's comment ridiculous and downright offensive. Australia needs and can support massive immigration. There are a lot more obvious factors: cheap credit, negative gearing, etc. than immigration. Even if he were intent on going the xenophobic route it would be better to focus on hot money coming out of China than genuine immigration.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... sters.html


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2017 11:59 am 
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When things start to go downhill immigration is a quick and easy target despite the obvious low interest rates and many other things you mentioned.
He did say he was against the high RATE and not against immigration and believes it should be at a lower rate.

I`ve often thought that Australia is a bit of a sham when it comes to this kind of thing. People like me get imported en masses because regular aussies arent high enough trained/educated. At the same time their third level education is bringing in huge money educating people from abroad. Why arent people like me brought in specifically as trainers/educators to deal with the "skills shortage" that way??

Australia is a great place and has enough resources to feed double its population. But should it? And should it expand so quickly? I`d rather more cities were built and it was at a slower pace and that it didnt expand the population out to X number of people just because.

Unfortunately people like Pauline Hanson are going to ride this coming wave. Just like Trump has. I can see why lower class US and Australian citizens are unhappy with the system.
less than a handful of people have more wealth than half of Australia*. Harry Triguboff owns half of Sydney*. All of this in the backdrop of ever increasing house prices, stagnant to decreasing real wage growth, less full time work, increasing debt, higher population density, and now the ever growing part time services sector is losing so of its extra pay for working saturday/sunday hours.

** exaggerations but close to the truth but it is easy to see how people get annoyed with this perception


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2017 4:01 am 
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Mod deleted off topic


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2017 10:00 pm 
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very interesting graph , thanks, now i`m back to square one trying to figure it out :D


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2017 10:02 pm 
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The mining bust is still impacting the economy


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Sat Feb 25, 2017 1:10 am 
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Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
very interesting graph , thanks, now i`m back to square one trying to figure it out :D


I thought it was obvious when I was there. "We need more of your kind, too many blicks".

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Those who don't study history are doomed to repeat it. Those who do study history are doomed to watch everyone else repeating it.


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Sat Feb 25, 2017 3:39 am 
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Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
This is quite different to Ireland in the sense that there are loads of commentators saying this is going to destroy the economy


Ah, but is anyone listening to them?

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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 3:55 am 
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ps200306 wrote:
Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
This is quite different to Ireland in the sense that there are loads of commentators saying this is going to destroy the economy


Ah, but is anyone listening to them?


Not really, its at the point now where intervention by the government would bring the house of cards down and they would be blamed.


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Market is still red hot
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/sydne ... ing-2017-2

Quote:
Property auctions hit record levels in Sydney and Melbourne last week, driving up the national tally as clearance rates improved as well

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017 ... -corelogic


Quote:
Sydney cleared 81.5 per cent — the third consecutive weekend above 80 — after 80.6 last week, while the Victorian capital had a clearance rate of 80.1 per cent, up from 75.7 per cent last week, CoreLogic figures showed.

“It was unf..king-believable,” Melbourne auctioneer Phillip Kingston from Gary Peer Real Estate said, describing the weekend’s action.

“The market is super strong. We had 23 auctions this weekend, and sold 21 out of 23. Last week we had 17 and sold 17. The previous week we sold six out of six. It’s as good as we could possibly ask for.”

Sydney had 1169 auctions last week, up from 856 the previous week, and 640 the week before that. This week last year there had been 919.

In Melbourne, auction numbers leapt up from 1347 for the week last year to 1613 this week.

A positive economic outlook and heartened buyers has led to the surge, CoreLogic’s Kevin ­Brogan said.

“We’ve seen the normal trend to higher volumes that occurs after the summer break, but this week we’ve seen the volumes take off over the normal seasonal trend,” he said.

“We’ve been reporting high clearance rates in end of 2016, and again in the 2017 auction season. That is something people have been aware of.”

Melbourne had its strongest month since October, according to Andrew Wilson from Australian Property Monitors.

“Maybe buyers who were sitting on their hands last year have decided to take the plunge,” he said.

Canberra and Adelaide also recorded positive results. There were 100 auctions in the nation’s capital, which recorded a clearance rate of 77.3 per cent, while Adelaide had a rate of 76.3 per cent from 121 listed properties.

In Brisbane, Australia’s third largest market, 63.6 per cent of homes sold from 174 auctions. Perth had a clearance rate of 21.4 per cent from 46 properties, while Tasmania had 50 per cent from nine.


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busines ... 81ad501c22

Quote:
In Melbourne' upmarket eastern suburb of Malvern, real estate agency RT Edgar employed traffic control to manage cars and the crowd at the auction of a newly built three-level, four-bedroom townhouse.

"The intention was to slow them, but the crowd was so big – I thought about 350 people - that the guys said there were so many people and so much traffic they closed the road when I started the auction," agent Mark Wridgway said.

http://www.afr.com/real-estate/resident ... 225-gulg3j

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Read more: http://www.afr.com/real-estate/resident ... z4ZqolBQAL
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Australia is the world's top destination for millionaires, beating the United States for the second straight year, according to New World Wealth.

An estimated 11,000 millionaires moved to Australia in 2016, compared with the 10,000 who moved to the United States.

Canada ranked third, with 8,000, followed by the United Arab Emirates and New Zealand.

As for countries that millionaires are fleeing, France tops the list, with 12,000 moving out during 2016.


Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/world/australia ... z4Zqo8AKRf
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