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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Fri May 19, 2017 9:26 am 
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Location: Australia
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-econ ... w8fva.html


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Sun May 21, 2017 6:47 pm 
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Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Jul 31, 2011
Posts: 1350
>What is a normal figure for building houses per 1,000 people?

I was shocked when I started to read about my home Poland. 147k in 2015 and 162k in 2016 of properties vs irish 120k at the peak. Poland is around 38milion people and it looks like one big construction site now.


What happened in Ireland 10 years ago was so bonkers...

_________________
Why is it so windy here?

This is my best finding this year:
06/2007: Central Bank predicts soft landing for housing
http://www.independent.ie/business/iris ... 96858.html
It's all grand


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Sun May 21, 2017 7:07 pm 
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Speculator

Joined: Apr 27, 2014
Posts: 420
mightyz wrote:
>What is a normal figure for building houses per 1,000 people?

I was shocked when I started to read about my home Poland. 147k in 2015 and 162k in 2016 of properties vs irish 120k at the peak. Poland is around 38milion people and it looks like one big construction site now.


What happened in Ireland 10 years ago was so bonkers...


This is some analysis I did over two and half years ago on the rate of property purchase for the property-buying cohort in Ireland and how it has collaped. I could bring this analysis up to date if I was bothered and if anyone would actually care.

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=63205&p=791369#p791369

A normal rate of property purchase would be around 40-45 per 1,000 of people in the property cohort of 25-50. You can easily work out the difference between the total number of properties that should be bought based on the population size in this group and estimate the proportion that should be new and calculate the difference between what the number should be and what it is.

Just one I-told-you-so quote for a small amount of smug self-satisfaction that I feel I am entitled to:

Quote:
Without property supply, some of the latent demand will remain latent. The latent demand that becomes actual will cause short-term price increases as demand chases supply.


And Simpleton Simon actually thinks he deserved to lead Fine Gael.


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Mon May 22, 2017 9:03 am 
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http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking- ... wa6pd.html



Quote:
"The risk of a sharp correction in property prices has increased," S&P said in a statement on Monday.

S&P Global Ratings downgraded the credit scores of more than 20 smaller financial institutions as it warned the risks of a property market downturn are increasing, although expectations of government support saw the very largest banks spared.

About 23 issuers had their ratings lowered, including Bank of Queensland, Bendigo & Adelaide Bank and AMP Bank.

The credit assessor exempted the Big Four banks - Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Westpac Banking Corp and National Australia Bank - on the assumption that the government would step in to provide support if needed.


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 4:17 am 
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http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017 ... tal-cities

Quote:
Home prices across Australia's capital cities have again edged lower, in a sign the property boom has likely past its peak, but auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne have rebounded.

However, the value of homes across Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth fell by a collective 0.5 per cent for the week and 1.1 per cent for the month.


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 12:18 pm 
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Joined: Jul 9, 2008
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Location: In the Sandpit.
Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/sp-cites-risk-of-sharp-correction-in-property-prices-as-it-cuts-23-banks-ratings-20170522-gwa6pd.html



Quote:
"The risk of a sharp correction in property prices has increased," S&P said in a statement on Monday.

S&P Global Ratings downgraded the credit scores of more than 20 smaller financial institutions as it warned the risks of a property market downturn are increasing, although expectations of government support saw the very largest banks spared.

About 23 issuers had their ratings lowered, including Bank of Queensland, Bendigo & Adelaide Bank and AMP Bank.

The credit assessor exempted the Big Four banks - Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Westpac Banking Corp and National Australia Bank - on the assumption that the government would step in to provide support if needed.


Assuming a correction to say, 25% of current prices, how much would the government need to stump up? Has anyone published any scenarios?


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 4:55 am 
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Location: Australia
Quote:
“Interest-only could be Australia’s sub-prime,” they said, referring to the poor quality loans written in the US prior to 2007 that led to cascading defaults and the global financial crisis.

“Interest-only loans proliferate throughout the mortgage book, across cohorts and circumstances,” they said.

“Only one trend emerges; interest-only households tend to have lower incomes and higher amounts of credit outstanding and tend to use interest-only to borrow more.”

Bank defenders say borrower “buffers” where the house value is in excess of loans offset the risks, but JCP analysts maintain most of the buffers reside with the least risky borrowers.

http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western ... 9f5da0d928


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