Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 2369 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 154, 155, 156, 157, 158  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:08 am 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Nov 6, 2006
Posts: 8357
Location: Australia
https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/the-r ... ty-housing

Quote:
Total increase in capital city housing
between 2011 and 2016 Census


Image

Quote:
The data highlights that over the five years between Census there has been a shift towards denser housing stock being added to the capital cities. Interestingly, while driving around inner city areas you would be led to believe that it is higher density units which have been most abundant in new supply, the data points to medium density supply having ramped up the most. In Sydney (17.9%), Melbourne (61.0%), Brisbane (29.6%), Adelaide (46.5%), Perth (49.4%) and Canberra (36.9%) it was medium density housing types which recorded the greatest increase in stock over the five years. In each of these cities, except for Adelaide and Perth, separate house stock saw the smallest increase of the three housing types over the five years


Population 2016: 23,401,892
http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census ... endocument

Population 2011: 21,507,717
http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census ... navpos=220

9% growth in population, 11% increase in housing stock, the average persons per dwelling stays unchanged at 2.6 (despite the divorce & separation rates both rising which is an indicator for a rise in demand for single occupancy dwellings). Unless dwellings are being held vacant for capital appreciation then we would expect a small decrease in the average persons per dwelling rate.


Quote:
The Australian housing shortage is a gospel truth for everyone from Treasury and Reserve Bank policymakers down to your average Joe chatting with mates at a weekend barbeque.

It is one of the rare areas where analysts with vested interests (such as those employed by property developers, real estate agents and banks) can agree with most independent analysts (such as academics) free from such interests.

However, despite this overwhelming consensus I have a nagging doubt that it is true, and I am not alone.

On Monday night's The Business, one-time business analyst and author of Australia Boom to Bust Lindsay David said Australia had built plenty of homes - about one for every 1.9 people that had been added to the population.

The same segment featured a graph from this story that I published late last year, which showed that Australia had actually built more homes than England over the past decade, even though England has twice the population and also had a bigger numerical increase in population.

Admittedly, all that shows is that England has a bigger recent housing shortage than Australia. It doesn't answer the question of whether Australia has a housing shortage in the first place.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-15/h ... nk/6395326
^ From 2015 - construction picked up since (seems to be beginning to taper off now)

Quote:
Victoria 'the Ireland of the south'

Quote:
However, the census period covers only the very start of a record building boom that is likely to see at least 200,000 new homes completed this year alone.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-27/h ... us/8654534
Quote:
"Hence, we are 'calling the top', but stick to our forecasts for [dwelling construction] commencements to 'correct but not collapse' to 200,000 in 2017 and 180,000 in 2018."
Currently, there are around 220,000 dwellings under construction across Australia, with building approvals over the year to February holding at 228,000, not far off recent peaks.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-24/h ... bs/8466198


Building 220,000 houses in Australia a year is like building 40,000 in Ireland in 2007 instead of what, 87,000? or was it 90,000?
Nevertheless things are going to get a bit crazy


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Tue Jul 11, 2017 9:45 am 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Nov 6, 2006
Posts: 8357
Location: Australia
Quote:
it says the typical up-front commission of 0.61 per cent, or $3100 on a $500,000 loan, gives brokers an incentive to recommend customers take out larger mortgages. It says this link to loan size should be removed "at a minimum", but pushes for stronger action.


http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking- ... x8qki.html


Quote:
Investor loans fall to lowest level in 12 months as banks react to tighter APRA regulations

Figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday show home loans to investors as a proportion of all loans dropped to 46 per cent, down from a high of over half of all home loans in January.

House prices went into reverse across the country for the first time in 18 months in May, falling by 1.1 per cent. The latest figures from CoreLogic show capital city prices were still up 10.6 per cent on the same time last year.

The result comes after Treasurer Scott Morrison ordered the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority to slam the brakes on investor lending by restricting interest-only loans to less than 30 per cent of new home loan approvals while also tightening access to high-risk loans.

"What we don't want is a hard landing," Mr Morrison told Sky News last week. "We have seen some heat come out of the investor top end of the market. That is what the measures were designed to do."


http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-econ ... x8rlv.html

Investors being 46% of all new mortgages is still absolutely bonkers


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Tue Jul 11, 2017 1:00 pm 
Offline
Homeless

Joined: Oct 1, 2016
Posts: 15
Quote:
Investors being 46% of all new mortgages is still absolutely bonkers


Probably also worth noting that investor percentage is also most likely understated. Since the banks started charging higher interest rates on investor loans borrowers became incentivised to claim they are owner occupiers at application. Particularly if they can pass a serveceability assessment without needing rental income. Plenty of dodgy brokers out there who know how to get these things over the line. The APRA 10% growth limit is a joke really.

The quote about the Treasurer ordering APRA actions is ridiculous as well. He doesn't have that power and we know the liberals have been shameless cheerleaders of the conditions that led APRA to belatedly act.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Tue Jul 11, 2017 1:20 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Nov 6, 2006
Posts: 8357
Location: Australia
yep! and the whole 'rentvesting' crap that is being pushed - people could then claim owner occupier
https://www.domain.com.au/news/rentvest ... 09-gu7skx/


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Tue Jul 11, 2017 5:11 pm 
Offline
Real Estate Developer

Joined: Jul 9, 2008
Posts: 930
Location: In the Sandpit.
So quick impressions from my latest visit here: Sydney is bonkers and is a lost cause in my opinion, Melbourne is just very expensive maybe on the edge and maybe not, Brisbane seems to be peaking and going down, and I know nothing new about Perth.

It almost feels like the Sydney hinterland has reached as far as Shellharbour - no ideas about the north. West Sydney sprawls out as much as ever.

I'd love to live in Australia; the winter in the states of NSW & VIC has been cold and sunny which I love, and I've done the ME heat and humidity so no surprises there. But Sydney is a non-runner. Anyone who now buys there is a victim of circumstance or personal conviction, not a real choice. I wish them luck. There is value elsewhere.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Wed Jul 12, 2017 4:22 am 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Nov 6, 2006
Posts: 8357
Location: Australia
Quote:
“When the housing cycle does turn and many of the speculators who have entered the market try to run for the doors, we think the impact on house prices, consumer spending and the banking system could be brutal,” the firm said in a half-review of its Investigator Trust.

https://thewest.com.au/business/economy ... b88529313z


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Wed Jul 12, 2017 4:24 am 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Nov 6, 2006
Posts: 8357
Location: Australia
Quote:
There are more homes for sale in Melbourne and Sydney than at any time over the past two years, with many owners trying to sell ahead of an expected slowdown in price growth.

Over the first six months of the year, Sydney had 16,370 auction listings, a 29 per cent increase on the 12,708 over the same period last year and a 5.7 per cent gain on the 15,486 of the first six months of 2015, Domain Group figures show.

Melbourne showed a similar pattern, with 18,175 auction listings in the first half, a 13 per cent gain on last year's 16,083 and 10.2 per cent higher than the 16486 in the first half of 2015.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets-live/markets-live-trump-jr-rattles-wall-street-20170711-gx9fbe.html


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 4:09 am 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Nov 6, 2006
Posts: 8357
Location: Australia
Quote:
The RBA's super-stimulatory monetary policy settings have bequeathed Australian families with an unprecedented 190.4 per cent household debt-to-income ratio; the most expensive house prices in history (the median Sydney house price is now $1,050,000); and an off-the-charts leap in the nation's house price-to-income ratio to 6.5 times, which according to UBS is uncharted territory.

For years the RBA's financial (in)stability department has erroneously alleged that there was nothing to worry about here while we repeatedly warned them of these outcomes. The unanticipated consequences of this policy failing are sundry.

For now let's focus on superannuation and the possibility it could be woefully inadequate for many savers' retirement income needs given an unexpected increase in their future living costs.



When former Treasurer Paul Keating introduced compulsory superannuation in 1992 the household debt-to-income ratio was just 73 per cent, the median Sydney house price was $161,000, and UBS's house price-to-income ratio was merely three times. All these metrics have sadly multiplied in the years since.

Crucially, about eight in 10 of the retirees Keating was targeting in 1992 owned their homes outright with no outstanding mortgage debt.

Fast forward to 2017 and affordability problems have pushed the home ownership rate down with many Australians suffering from "financial repression". This refers to the process by which artificially cheap money transfers wealth from savers to borrowers (and hence renters to owner-occupiers). More than 30 per cent of all families now rent with many left with little choice but to do so for the remainder of their lives.

Australian families are also entering their twilight years with more mortgage debt than ever before. RBA data shows that whereas households aged 55 years and over had debt-to-income ratios less than 50 per cent as recently as 2002, today this number is converging on 100 per cent.

Many retirees will arrive in their late 60s and 70s with debt-servicing obligations for years to come. Those who rent will grapple with a similar fate insofar as their monthly living costs will be heftier than the debt-free owner-occupied dream they once envisioned.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets- ... xb1gs.html
http://www.afr.com/opinion/why-high-hou ... 713-gxb25p


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 9:20 am 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Nov 6, 2006
Posts: 8357
Location: Australia
Flashback to Sydney 2006

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/hou ... 14995.html
Quote:
A THREE-BEDROOM brick-veneer house in St Clair sold for just $260,000 at the weekend - down about 42 per cent from its last sale at $450,000 in 2003 in a further sign of the depressed state of the Sydney property market.

Only one person bid on the house in the city's west. The mortgagee sale was forced after the owners could not meet the interest payments on the $405,000 they borrowed to buy the house at the peak of the market.

Auction clearance rates are hovering around 48 per cent since the recent interest rate rise, but plummeting property prices have meant many vendors are confronting negative equity, where they owe more on the property than it is worth.


Quote:
"There was a wave of people punting on the expectation of constant price rises until well into 2004, even after the three interest rate rises of late 2003. There has been significant price deflation and many now have negative equity in their homes.

"There are some sad stories. But we have to show the sellers the comparable sales and say honestly this is where the market is realistically at."


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2017 10:34 am 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Nov 6, 2006
Posts: 8357
Location: Australia
Quote:
it is likely APRA will give the banks plenty of time to respond to any increased capital ratios.

ANZ, with a capital ratio of 9.9 per cent, is the highest of the big four, followed by BT at 9.48 per cent, NAB at 9.31 and CBA at 9.2 per cent.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busines ... 7be0b382e9

Anyone know what the ratios were in Ireland in the year before the crash?


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:53 am 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Apr 1, 2010
Posts: 9440
Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
Flashback to Sydney 2006

Didn't realise the last bust in Oz was as recent as our own. How long/deep/widespread was it?

_________________
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" – Niels Bohr


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2017 12:34 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Nov 6, 2006
Posts: 8357
Location: Australia
Not long really, there was a drop in prices as recently as 2013 also


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2017 7:42 pm 
Offline
Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Jul 31, 2011
Posts: 1380
Location: 0-71
Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:


Building 220,000 houses in Australia a year is like building 40,000 in Ireland in 2007 instead of what, 87,000? or was it 90,000?
Nevertheless things are going to get a bit crazy


In my home Poland we have a peak of around 97000 for 38mln population... However our demographic forecasts are not so bright.

_________________
Why it was so windy there?... I am out.

For future reference, a 'soft landing' theorem:
06/2007: Central Bank predicts soft landing for housing
http://www.independent.ie/business/iris ... 96858.html
It's all grand


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2017 9:16 pm 
Offline
Real Estate Developer

Joined: Jun 10, 2010
Posts: 830
Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
Not long really, there was a drop in prices as recently as 2013 also


Perths been correcting for 4 years now... it had a recent uptick but let's see if that's sustainable

_________________
Jean-Claude Juncker - “We all know what to do, we just don’t know how to get re-elected after we’ve done it.”
Irving Fisher, economist, October 17, 1929 - "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau"
Gold and Economic Freedom by Alan Greenspan - 1966
Milton Friedman best moments


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Wed Jul 19, 2017 4:27 am 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Nov 6, 2006
Posts: 8357
Location: Australia
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/ ... xcpiw.html

Quote:
Census snapshot: One million homes left empty across Australia

In the space of two decades Australia has added 2.1 million homes to its property portfolio but an extra 360,000 are being left vacant



:shock:


Image


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 2369 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 154, 155, 156, 157, 158  Next


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Jump to: