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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:53 am 
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The major banks' main domestic rivals are calling for an overhaul of the prudential regulator's caps on property investor and interest-only mortgages, claiming the curbs are stifling competition.

Proposals from the second-tier lenders include clamping down on mortgages only in the hottest property markets such as Melbourne and Sydney, or putting tighter speed limits on the big four than the rest of the industry.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking- ... ymogp.html

these guys are very late to the party, people are already hungover


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 6:12 am 
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http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busines ... fe22b422f3

Quote:
Apartments bought off the plan at the start of Brisbane’s unprecedented unit-construction wave are selling at losses of up to 36 per cent, underscoring concerns from the Reserve Bank about the city’s concentrated inner-city market.

Property searches of high-rise apartment towers in Hamilton, Bowen Hills and Fortitude Valley built about five years ago show most sales this year had been at a loss.

The heaviest falls were a $152,000 plunge from an original price of $522,000 for a Hamilton two-bedroom unit with river views; a $150,000 decline on a smaller two-bedroom unit in the same complex; and a $145,000 loss on a $400,000, 60sq m unit in Bowen Hills.


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Fri Sep 29, 2017 12:52 pm 
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The borrower expenses benchmark used by most of the banks in their loan affordability assessments has recently been revised upward. Had been significantly under estimating borrowers spending in a lot of cases. Having a negative impact on the max amount that people can borrow.


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Fri Sep 29, 2017 9:17 pm 
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Rutgers wrote:
The borrower expenses benchmark used by most of the banks in their loan affordability assessments has recently been revised upward. Had been significantly under estimating borrowers spending in a lot of cases. Having a negative impact on the max amount that people can borrow.



ANZ tightens apartment lending rules in Brisbane, Perth inner city markets

The ANZ has told its brokers to tighten lending restrictions in 11 postcodes in Brisbane and Perth, where buyers will now need a 20 per cent deposit before they can borrow.

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-2 ... th/8987698

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Irving Fisher, economist, October 17, 1929 - "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau"
Gold and Economic Freedom by Alan Greenspan - 1966
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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:58 pm 
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Financial Hell: 57% in Australia Cannot Afford An Extra $100 if Interest Rates Rise, Stress in Wealthiest Areas - -> https://mishtalk.com/2017/09/30/tipping ... est-areas/

Quote:
A new study shows 57% of Australia mortgage holders could not handle a $100 increase in their loan repayment.
Stress has turned up in even the wealthiest cities.
But who is truly wealthy? Paper profits on homes with enormous mortgages does not constitute wealth.

there is more


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:23 am 
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An absolute ticking timebomb waiting to explode:

Quote:
A third of customers with interest-only mortgages may not properly understand the type of loan they have taken out, which could put many in "substantial" stress when the time comes to pay their debt, UBS analysts warn

Their finding is based on a recent survey conducted by the investment bank, which found only 23.9 per cent of 907 respondents had an interest-only loan, compared with economy-wide figures that show 35.3 per cent of loans are interest-only.

Mr Mott said he initially suspected the survey sample had an error, but now believed a "more plausible" reason was that interest-only customers did not properly understand their loan.

"We are concerned that it is likely that approximately one third of borrowers who have taken out an interest-only mortgage have little understanding of the product or that their repayments will jump by between 30 and 60 per cent at the end of the interest-only period (depending on the residual term)," he said.


http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking- ... yu2r5.html

Quote:
e pain from Toyota’s long-awaited Australian exit is forecast to stretch far beyond the car manufacturer’s 2,600 out-of-work employees.

After the last Camry rolled off the Altona North production line on Tuesday, a sprawling network of supply chain workers also prepared to embrace joblessness.

“All up today, there are about 6,000 Victorians going to lose their jobs because Toyota is shutting down,” the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union’s Dave Smith told reporters.
The union says only about half of Ford’s workers – who lost their jobs when the manufacturer left Victoria a year ago – had moved into permanent, full-time work.


https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... ut-of-work

Who needs manufacturing when we have the digital economy:

Quote:
Australia has slower internet than Kenya
The $49 billion National Broadband Network was meant to spearhead a digital revolution. Instead, the botched project risks becoming a poster child for government mismanagement.
Australia's biggest-ever infrastructure investment has turned into a political football, plagued by cost overruns and construction delays.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/innovati ... ytril.html


All while the sharemarket hit a 6 month low today
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busines ... 1c9a9cebbb


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 10:34 pm 
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Quote:
only 45 per cent of 25-to-34 year-olds own their own home, down 16 percentage points from the 1980s, with almost half the decline coming in the past decade. At the same time, hefty mortgages have pushed household debt to a record, acting as a drag on the economy's 26 years of unbroken growth.

As more people retire still owing a mortgage, or renting, they are more likely to qualify for government welfare, undermining the $2.3 trillion pension savings system.


Adding to demand pressures, Australia's migration program has helped swell the population by almost 4 million since 2006, with most settling in the major cities. Supply has been unable to keep up, with dwelling completions running below underlying demand for more than a decade. Much of the new housing is small apartments aimed at investors, rather than families

There is also a social cost to sky-high house prices. Workers such as teachers, nurses and other low-to-middle income earners can't afford to live in the communities they serve, while young people who stay at home longer while saving a deposit might delay marriage and childbirth.

"It's a very different atmosphere in Australia,'' said Professor Richard Ronald of the University of Amsterdam's Centre for Urban Studies.

"I haven't come across this kind of resistance elsewhere to the understanding of 'Generation Rent' as a fundamental shift in history."


http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-econ ... yujbr.html


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:33 am 
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Posts: 858
Good value in Perth at the moment and jobs are picking up. Rental vacancy rates & for sales are coming down.

http://m.miningweekly.com/article/weste ... ep_id:3861

_________________
Jean-Claude Juncker - “We all know what to do, we just don’t know how to get re-elected after we’ve done it.”
Irving Fisher, economist, October 17, 1929 - "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau"
Gold and Economic Freedom by Alan Greenspan - 1966
Milton Friedman best moments


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:07 pm 
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conork wrote:
Good value in Perth at the moment and jobs are picking up. Rental vacancy rates & for sales are coming down.

http://m.miningweekly.com/article/weste ... ep_id:3861


Don't know about that, just checked my old rental near the CBD in Perth and it's currently advertised at two thirds of what we were paying in 2014 before we left and there's certainly more supply than when we vacated.

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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:10 am 
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Quote:
Shane Oliver
@ShaneOliverAMP
Head of Inv Strategy & Chief Economist at AMP Capital

https://twitter.com/ShaneOliverAMP

Quote:
A slump in Australian retail sales in July and August is no cause for immediate alarm, but a response through interest rates could be warranted if consumption across the economy loses momentum entirely, according to Reserve Bank board member Ian Harper.

While Professor Harper also pointed to positive economic data out recently, including employment and investment figures, his comments suggest the Reserve Bank of Australia will likely remain cautious for longer than expected, with the possibility of another rate cut not completely ruled out.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busines ... 38dbd25991


Quote:
"I told you so." That would be the reaction from a handful of economists who saw today's incredibly weak retail sales result coming.

Economists had generally expected sales to rise 0.3 per cent, after a flat result in July.

Instead they got what Commonwealth Bank senior economist Gareth Aird labelled "a shocker" — the 0.6 per cent slump in retail turnover during August was the worst in almost four-and-a-half years.

Adding to the negative surprise was a downward revision to July's number, now a 0.2 per cent fall.

Worse still, the weakness was spread across the country, with sales in every state falling.

Even worse, sales fell in almost every type of retailing — among the biggest declines were a 1.8 per cent slump in the previously booming restaurants and cafes sector and a 1 per cent drop in household goods sales, including a dive in electronics.

A handful of people saw the fall coming, but even they didn't quite predict the magnitude of the drop

Quote:
the regulator's efforts earlier this year prompted most banks to lift investor and interest-only home loans rates by an average 0.5-0.75 percentage points — Sydney prices fell (slightly) in September for the first time in 17 months.

Wages growth has continued to flatline — at 1.9 per cent it's the lowest since the last recession.

Not only that, from July 1, thousands of retail and hospitality workers started losing part of their penalty rates.

On top of all that, households have just been whacked with a 15-20 per cent rise in utility prices from July 1 on.


Quote:
Retail weakness over the past two months more closely matches conditions early this year, with a flat month in February and small sales decline in March, while big retail turnover gains in April and May are increasingly looking like the outliers.

Household consumption is 60 per cent of the economy — if spending growth dries up, generally economic growth does too.

Already, many economists are scaling back their GDP forecasts for the September quarter, with some expecting little to no growth at all.

Few expect economic growth to match Reserve Bank forecasts centring on 3.25 per cent next year and 3.5 per cent the year after.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-05/r ... -e/9019732

Quote:
The ugliest and most concerning chart in Australia.

AUSTRALIAN RETAIL SALES TANK

David ScuttVerified account
@Scutty
Markets and economics reporter, Business Insider Australia (@BIAUS). Ex markets guy at @arabbankgroup and @commbank.

Image
https://twitter.com/Scutty/status/91574 ... 92/photo/1


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 5:33 am 
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Joined: Jul 9, 2008
Posts: 1010
Location: In the Sandpit.
Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
Image

Quote:
Shane Oliver
@ShaneOliverAMP
Head of Inv Strategy & Chief Economist at AMP Capital

https://twitter.com/ShaneOliverAMP

Quote:
A slump in Australian retail sales in July and August is no cause for immediate alarm, but a response through interest rates could be warranted if consumption across the economy loses momentum entirely, according to Reserve Bank board member Ian Harper.

While Professor Harper also pointed to positive economic data out recently, including employment and investment figures, his comments suggest the Reserve Bank of Australia will likely remain cautious for longer than expected, with the possibility of another rate cut not completely ruled out.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busines ... 38dbd25991


Quote:
"I told you so." That would be the reaction from a handful of economists who saw today's incredibly weak retail sales result coming.

Economists had generally expected sales to rise 0.3 per cent, after a flat result in July.

Instead they got what Commonwealth Bank senior economist Gareth Aird labelled "a shocker" — the 0.6 per cent slump in retail turnover during August was the worst in almost four-and-a-half years.

Adding to the negative surprise was a downward revision to July's number, now a 0.2 per cent fall.

Worse still, the weakness was spread across the country, with sales in every state falling.

Even worse, sales fell in almost every type of retailing — among the biggest declines were a 1.8 per cent slump in the previously booming restaurants and cafes sector and a 1 per cent drop in household goods sales, including a dive in electronics.

A handful of people saw the fall coming, but even they didn't quite predict the magnitude of the drop

Quote:
the regulator's efforts earlier this year prompted most banks to lift investor and interest-only home loans rates by an average 0.5-0.75 percentage points — Sydney prices fell (slightly) in September for the first time in 17 months.

Wages growth has continued to flatline — at 1.9 per cent it's the lowest since the last recession.

Not only that, from July 1, thousands of retail and hospitality workers started losing part of their penalty rates.

On top of all that, households have just been whacked with a 15-20 per cent rise in utility prices from July 1 on.


Quote:
Retail weakness over the past two months more closely matches conditions early this year, with a flat month in February and small sales decline in March, while big retail turnover gains in April and May are increasingly looking like the outliers.

Household consumption is 60 per cent of the economy — if spending growth dries up, generally economic growth does too.

Already, many economists are scaling back their GDP forecasts for the September quarter, with some expecting little to no growth at all.

Few expect economic growth to match Reserve Bank forecasts centring on 3.25 per cent next year and 3.5 per cent the year after.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-05/r ... -e/9019732

Quote:
The ugliest and most concerning chart in Australia.

AUSTRALIAN RETAIL SALES TANK

David ScuttVerified account
@Scutty
Markets and economics reporter, Business Insider Australia (@BIAUS). Ex markets guy at @arabbankgroup and @commbank.

Image
https://twitter.com/Scutty/status/91574 ... 92/photo/1


Australia needs to print more money to grease the gears.
Considering the US and Euro experience, they should know when intervention is needed.


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:56 pm 
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http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/ ... 69c820b080

Quote:
Many young Australians will never be able to pay off their mortgages, warn housing experts
IF YOU aren’t on the property ladder by 35 then you could be paying off your mortage with your superannuation, a property expert has warned.


Image


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 6:29 am 
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Location: Australia
http://www.abc.net.au/news/business/kohler-report/

Watch the video at 1:25
if anyone is on twitter it would be great to ask the guy if he can do it in real terms if it isnt inflation adjusted already (doesnt seem to be clear)


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:33 pm 
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Joined: Jun 10, 2010
Posts: 858
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_________________
Jean-Claude Juncker - “We all know what to do, we just don’t know how to get re-elected after we’ve done it.”
Irving Fisher, economist, October 17, 1929 - "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau"
Gold and Economic Freedom by Alan Greenspan - 1966
Milton Friedman best moments


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:52 pm 
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Quote:
Mortgage Choice chief executive officer, John Flavell said interest only loans accounted for 13.89 per cent of all home loans written in South Australia throughout the month of September — down from 39.71 per cent in April.


http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-est ... 2ceaba15a2


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