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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Fri Nov 03, 2017 3:49 am 
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the number of households currently in mortgage distress has risen by 20 percent in the last six months to 910,000.


Quote:
"Another worrying statistic is that there are now 52,000 households that this organisation has identified that are now 30 days behind on their mortgage repayments, that means technically banks could walk in and close them up."


https://finance.nine.com.au/2017/11/03/ ... ss-in-2018


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Fri Nov 03, 2017 3:56 am 
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Nearly 22,000 households, of which 11,000 are professionals or young affluent, are facing severe distress, which means they are unable to meet mortgage repayments from current income and are having to manage by cutting back spending, putting more on credit cards, refinance, or sell their home.

About 52,000 households risk 30-day default in the next 12 months, up 3000 from the previous month. A lender, or creditor, can issue a default notice to a borrower behind on debt.



Read more: http://www.afr.com/real-estate/mortgage ... z4xKyml5oG
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Quote:
"Most debt is held by higher income households and Reserve Bank research shows that relatively few households have high loans-to-total-assets ratios.

"Stagnating house prices — still the most likely scenario over the next couple of years — wouldn't be enough to significantly trouble the banks."

Rather than a banking crisis, higher debts could cause a rapid fall in household spending in the event of a downturn, he said.

"Household consumption accounts for well over half of gross domestic product. Recent Reserve Bank of Australia research shows that households with higher debts are more likely to reduce spending if their incomes fall," he said.




Read more: http://www.afr.com/real-estate/mortgage ... z4xKz7M6e1
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Australia’s heavily indebted households are pulling down the shutters on consumption as retail sales suffered the weakest three-month stretch in seven years.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... in-7-years


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Fri Nov 03, 2017 5:54 am 
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Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
Quote:
"Most debt is held by higher income households and Reserve Bank research shows that relatively few households have high loans-to-total-assets ratios.

"Stagnating house prices — still the most likely scenario over the next couple of years — wouldn't be enough to significantly trouble the banks."

Rather than a banking crisis, higher debts could cause a rapid fall in household spending in the event of a downturn, he said.


Apologies in advance if this sounds ignorant since I've never been to Australia, but this sounds suspiciously like a prediction of a "soft landing".


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Fri Nov 03, 2017 6:45 am 
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yeah it is, plenty predicting it`ll be like the circa 2013 price falls which followed by a bigger bubble.
I think the stock market is pricing in government interference. Well there is a guarantee here just like Ireland.

That is a think tank persons interpretation.("Brendan Coates, a fellow at the Grattan Institute, a public policy think tank")
I would argue with him that the risk is actually far higher when its concentrated among just a few people. Each % drop is leveraged across multiple interest only loans etc.


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 Post subject: Ominous Signs in Australia
PostPosted: Sun Nov 05, 2017 12:53 am 
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Like Britain, Productivity Is Stagnant - Meaning Wages Can't Increase

Quote:
Australia needs to focus on getting better, not just bigger

When growth is measured in volume terms, a fast growing population undoubtedly helps. More people means more demand, helping to underpin real GDP growth.

Perhaps a more reliable indicator on true economic performance is real GDP growth per capita, or growth in output per person.

As seen in this next chart, also from ANZ, on that measure of economic success Australia’s growth record doesn’t look anywhere near as stellar.

Indeed, as the chart reveals, had it not been for population growth, Australia’s economy would have fallen into recession during the global financial crisis.

Image


https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australia-economy-comparison-productivity-reforms-2017-10

Quote:
No wages pick-up without productivity: business leaders

Wage growth is unlikely to pick up from record lows without a lift in productivity, some of the country's most senior business leaders warned amid a fresh round of corporate job-shedding.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/no-wages-pickup-without-productivity-business-leaders-20171102-gzdgnn.html


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Sun Nov 05, 2017 8:42 am 
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The NSW government claimed a "historic", "first time" collaboration between its planning and infrastructure auspices as it released two 40-year strategies to transform Sydney into a tripartite metropolis with eastern, central, and western cities by 2056.

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/lucy-turnbull ... z5un4.html

Quote:
For more than a year, the NSW government has championed its delivery of record housing approvals and completions. But the question of density – and how much is too much – is fast shaping up to be a key issue ahead of the 2019 election.
........................

expected to see Sydney's population swell by 100,000 people every year for the next 20 years
...........................

Midway through a council bureaucrat's slideshow presentation, a heckler disrupted proceedings.

"Six storeys max for all of Marrickville," he yelled.

The hall erupted in raucous applause.


http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-econ ... zdc9t.html


Quote:
When Australians are asked what worries them most, things such as healthcare, the cost of living, unemployment and crime are always near the top of the list.

But during the past two years a new source of anxiety has registered in the polls: housing.

http://www.smh.com.au/comment/from-boom ... zeh8r.html


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Mon Nov 06, 2017 3:11 am 
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Quote:
Genworth Mortgage Insurance has continued to feel the pressure of regulatory intervention in the home loan market with a 31.3 per cent fall in third-quarter profit

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017 ... age-market

Quote:
Real estate company McGrath took a beating on the share market after declaring its financial performance fell "short of expectations".

McGrath was by far the worst performing stock on the ASX, plunging by as much as 25 per cent in early trade on Monday.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-06/m ... es/9121864


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Mon Nov 06, 2017 9:53 am 
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The McGrath story is interesting, they seem to be the only ASX listed real estate agency. Fairfax and Rea Group still riding high by the looks of it...
https://finance.google.com/finance?q=ASX:MEA
https://finance.google.co.uk/finance?q=ASX:REA
https://finance.google.com/finance?q=ASX:FXJ


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:07 am 
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https://www.businessinsider.com.au/aust ... on-2017-11


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:25 am 
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https://www.businessinsider.com.au/aust ... ne-2017-11


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 1:27 am 
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Home loans -2.3% m/m, MISS
•expected 2.0%, prior was 1.0%

Investment lending -6.2% m/m,
•prior was 4.3%

Owner-occupied loan value -2.1% m/m,
•prior was 0.9%


http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf ... enDocument


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:49 am 
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The weakness in Sydney's housing market is spreading across Australia

www.businessinsider.com.au/sydney-house ... ct-2017-11

Australian house prices went backwards last week, driven lower by continued weakness in Sydney, Australia’s most expensive and largest property market.

According to CoreLogic, prices in Sydney fell by 0.2% last week, seeing the decline over the past month accelerate to 0.6%.

_________________
Jean-Claude Juncker - “We all know what to do, we just don’t know how to get re-elected after we’ve done it.”
Irving Fisher, economist, October 17, 1929 - "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau"
Gold and Economic Freedom by Alan Greenspan - 1966
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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:43 am 
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very good article here, dont know if it opens for non linkedin people
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/australi ... tt-barrie/


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:15 pm 
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Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
very good article here, dont know if it opens for non linkedin people
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/australi ... tt-barrie/


That's a serious read. I'm about a quarter of the way through and will return to it later.

Here's a standout example from it.

Crane watch

Los Angeles (40),
Washington DC (29),
New York (28),
Chicago (26),
San Francisco (24),
Portland (22),
Denver (21),
Boston (14)

Sydney (350)


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 2:20 pm 
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Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
very good article here, dont know if it opens for non linkedin people
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/australi ... tt-barrie/

It seems to have been published here also:
http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/ ... 96e38db882


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