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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:22 pm 
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What's that graph supposed to tell me? How many dwellings per person do they think Australians need? The way the graphs are scaled it looks like about 1.5 persons per dwelling?


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:39 pm 
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DSE3Br wrote:
What's that graph supposed to tell me? How many dwellings per person do they think Australians need? The way the graphs are scaled it looks like about 1.5 persons per dwelling?


Just that population growth has totally outstripped house building in the recent past. Up until very recently.
Some are claiming an overhang now. FYI 2.6 ppl per household is the average http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census ... ckstat/036

Quote:
Australia faces housing hangover twice the size of the GFC subprime era

The party is finally winding down for our housing market. How severe the hangover is will determine the economy's fate for years to come.

After five years of surging prices, the market value of the nation's homes has ballooned to $7.3 trillion - or more than four times gross domestic product. Not even the US and UK markets achieved such heights at their peaks a decade ago before prices spiralled lower and dragged their economies with them.

Australia's obsession with property is firmly entrenched in our economy and psyche, fuelled by record-low interest rates, generous tax breaks, banks hooked on home lending, and prime-time TV shows such as The Block where home renovators are lauded like sporting heroes.

For many, homes morphed into cash machines to finance loans for boats, cars and investment properties. The upshot: households are now twice as indebted as China's.



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http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-econ ... zrwn4.html


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Fri Dec 01, 2017 1:32 am 
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Quote:
Sydney's house prices continue its subtle downward slide falling another 0.7 per cent in November, the latest Corelogic data shows.

In the three months to November, Sydney house prices posted a 1.3 per cent fall

Melbourne was more resilient, thanks in part to strong population growth, rose 0.5 per cent growth in November.

But Perth stole the show. House prices in the western capital rose 0.2 per cent in November indicating a clear "bottoming out", Corelogic head of research Tim Lawless said

"If this is indeed the start of a recovery phase in the Perth housing market, it comes after dwelling values have fallen 10.8 per cent since peaking in mid 2014," he said.

Read more: http://www.afr.com/real-estate/sydney-h ... z4zxso6vdG
Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook



10% isn't really all that much considering the prices


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Fri Dec 01, 2017 1:32 am 
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Quote:
A typical Sydney home now costs $904,914 — roughly $6000, or 1.3 per cent, cheaper than it was at the start of September.


http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-est ... fe4c3dfcc9

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https://www.businessinsider.com.au/aust ... 17-2017-12


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Fri Dec 01, 2017 3:12 am 
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I see Turnbull has ordered a royal commission to inquire into the Australian banks. Sounds like they were doing all the same nasty things as banks everywhere else -- money laundering, rate fixing, etc. etc. The Aussie banks have always claimed they were in good shape because the subprime crisis didn't reach them. Interesting to see if they're wearing any shorts when the tide goes out on them.

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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Fri Dec 01, 2017 6:53 am 
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Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
DSE3Br wrote:
What's that graph supposed to tell me? How many dwellings per person do they think Australians need? The way the graphs are scaled it looks like about 1.5 persons per dwelling?


Just that population growth has totally outstripped house building in the recent past. Up until very recently.
Some are claiming an overhang now. FYI 2.6 ppl per household is the average http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census ... ckstat/036

My point is that the graph doesn't show that, unless you think each 1.5 persons need their own home.

Edit: I get it now.


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:26 am 
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ps200306 wrote:
I see Turnbull has ordered a royal commission to inquire into the Australian banks. Sounds like they were doing all the same nasty things as banks everywhere else -- money laundering, rate fixing, etc. etc. The Aussie banks have always claimed they were in good shape because the subprime crisis didn't reach them. Interesting to see if they're wearing any shorts when the tide goes out on them.


According to the news the opposition were looking for a royal commission, (monarchs version of public inquiry :roll: ), for several years now. Apparently the inquiry finally got enough votes from members of parliament and to preempt that the BANKS THEMSELVES wrote to Turnbull basically saying go ahead with the inquiry so that you ............i.e we the banks............have control over the terms.

Poor form in my opinion. Really shows who is in control here.


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 7:04 am 
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conork wrote:
13000 according to real estate.com
I reckon Perth is Ireland 2009-2010.

Could be a good buying opportunity in 2 years

June 2016

conork wrote:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-21/renters-win-perth-city-office-space-rentals/8043182
Mining boom deflated, now the construction boom is deflating, a lot of pain in Perth at the moment.
TBH I'm considering buying there in 2017, specially if Trump goes full fiscal spending. Looks as though commodity prices are on a ripper lately and rentals in Perth are starting to decrease.


November 2016


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:37 am 
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http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-02/a ... rn/9297998
Quote:
Property consultant CoreLogic's monthly figures revealed national property prices fell 0.3 per cent in December, setting the scene for a weaker housing market this year.

"Although credit policies are likely to remain tight, we expect mortgage rates to remain low in 2018, providing a positive lending environment for those who are able to secure credit," CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless said.

Sydney and Darwin were the weakest housing markets that month, slipping 0.9 per cent since November — while Hobart recorded the strongest growth in the country.

The nation's biggest capital city also saw its prices fall by 2.4 per cent since in the last quarter.

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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:46 pm 
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Got a job ad in the inbox for a job in sydney this morning.
Quote:
so, if you are interested in living in what is probably the best city on the planet, with its fine outdoor lifestyle and amazing beaches, then email your resume.

Reminds of that radio contest I heard in Queensland before where you had to finish the caption "Holiday in Australia because............." and the winner they picked was "...............because everywhere else is shít!"

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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:46 am 
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Falls in apartment prices are accelerating in Sydney’s construction hot spots
Apartment prices have been falling so rapidly across Sydney’s residential construction hot spots that units are losing more in value each week than their owners earn in wages.
http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-est ... 5f09e2f01d

Harry Triguboffs loss is another man's gain

_________________
Jean-Claude Juncker - “We all know what to do, we just don’t know how to get re-elected after we’ve done it.”
Irving Fisher, economist, October 17, 1929 - "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau"
Gold and Economic Freedom by Alan Greenspan - 1966
Milton Friedman best moments


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:22 am 
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Location: Australia
Personal finance up
Quote:
The number of loans to first home buyers has recorded strong growth in recent months. The increase has been driven mainly by changes to first home buyer incentives made in July by the New South Wales and Victorian governments.


http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf ... enDocument


Employment growth, hours and participation rates doing better
Quote:
Employment and hours

Monthly trend full-time employment increased for the 14th straight month in December 2017. Full-time employment grew by a further 17,000 persons in December, while part-time employment increased by 8,000 persons, underpinning a total increase in employment of 25,000 persons.

"Full-time employment has now increased by around 322,000 persons since December 2016, and makes up the majority of the 393,000 net increase in employment over the period," the Chief Economist for the ABS, Bruce Hockman, said.

Over the past year, trend employment increased by 3.3 per cent, which is above the average year-on-year growth over the past 20 years (1.9 per cent). The last time it was 3.3 per cent or higher was in September 2005.

The trend monthly hours worked increased by 4.0 million hours (0.2 per cent), with the annual figure also reflecting strong growth over the year (3.6 per cent).

The labour force participation rate remained at 65.5 per cent after the November 2017 number was revised up, the highest it has been since March 2011. The female labour force participation rate also increased to a further historical high of 60.4 per cent, having increased steadily over the past year.

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf ... enDocument

Housing finance up

Quote:
◾In seasonally adjusted terms, the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 2.3%.
◾In original terms, the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments rose to 18.0% in November 2017 from 17.6% in October 2017.

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf ... enDocument


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:08 am 
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Location: Australia
Quote:
Home prices in Sydney are still falling, continuing the trend that began in late 2017.

According to CoreLogic, prices in Australia’s most largest and most expensive housing market fell by 0.4%, leaving the decline over the past month at 0.6%


According to CoreLogic, there were 90,514 properties listed last week, up 4.6% from a year earlier.

By specific market, the number of properties up for sale in Sydney currently stands at 19,034, up 29% from a year earlier. Available stock in Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra is also up 3.2%, 2.6%, 2.1% and 7% respectively from mid-January 2017


https://www.businessinsider.com.au/sydn ... all-2018-1


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:30 am 
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http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-econ ... 4yyup.html
Quote:
Australia is attracting more high net worth individuals (HNWI) as migrants than any other country, according to analysis by consultancy New World Wealth in its 2018 Global Wealth Migration Review

In 2017, Australia topped the world with a net inflow of 10,000 HNWIs, those with net assets of $US1 million ($1.25 million) or more. Second was the US with 9000.



Quote:
“During our analysis we noticed that countries with low population densities such as Canada and Australia are some of richest countries in the world on a wealth per capita (wealth per person) basis, whereas densely populated countries such as Nigeria, Ethiopia, Bangladesh and Pakistan are some of the poorest,” the report says.

The report says a lower population density means less dependence on other countries for trade and resources, less competition for land and resources within country, less waste and pollution, and allows for more wild spaces which improves quality of life for locals.


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Tue Jan 30, 2018 4:23 am 
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Location: Australia
http://www.afr.com/real-estate/house-pr ... 129-h0qb1f

Quote:
House prices have stopped falling according to a closer analysis by Macquarie analysts. "It is now looking very likely that housing prices at the national level are again rising modestly,"


backed by other analysts too:

Quote:
Australian home prices have been falling in recent months, according to CoreLogic, led by its largest and most expensive market, Sydney. ... “It is now looking very likely that housing prices at the national level are again rising modestly,”


https://www.businessinsider.com.au/aust ... nts-2018-1


Image

The catch is that its seasonally adjusted on low volumes....

Quote:
The CoreLogic measure — shown in blue — suggests that price growth has rebounded solidly in the early parts of January.

“Utilising CoreLogic’s data to mid-January shows a clear improvement in seasonally adjusted dwelling price growth, with the caveat that sales volumes in January are very low,” they say.


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