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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:06 pm 
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Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
Quote:
The number of new property listings fell 17.5% across the country, year-on-year – with only 8729 new listings registered during August, latest data from realestate.co.nz showed.

Only the West Coast and Hawke's Bay had more listings than last year, according to a Fairfax article.

The regions of the North Island registered the most dramatic falls in new listings compared to the same period last year, with Auckland down 22.7%, Waikato 23.2%, Northland 24% and Coromandel 37.6%.


http://www.nzadviseronline.co.nz/news/n ... 40917.aspx

I wonder what rental volumes and prices are doing?

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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:15 pm 
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catbear wrote:
I wonder what rental volumes and prices are doing?


This from a couple of months back

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/9313287 ... ge-worsens

Didn't the same thing happen in Dublin 07/08? Market started drying up, units for sale collapsed but so did the units for rent leading to a spike in rent prices? I seem to recall discussion of it at the time.

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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2017 1:52 pm 
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Grim reading, and Ireland gets a mention!

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/home ... t.96755666

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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:31 pm 
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Sidewinder wrote:
Grim reading, and Ireland gets a mention!

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/home ... t.96755666


It sounds like it might work the opposite to the way I expected; with Oz sneezes, & NZ catches a cold.

Instead it might be, NZ gets a veruca, & Oz loses a leg.

Contagion is the name of the game; & the more links in your financial system, to other sources of infection, the more inevitable the final collapse

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"Mr Kelly said Ireland’s “reputational capital” had been damaged by “chancers” such as ex-Anglo Irish Bank chairman Seán FitzPatrick, who had been abetted by “buffoons” such as former financial regulator Patrick Neary, Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan and the Taoiseach." - Irish Times 13th Jan 2009

"If you can't be a good example, then you'll just have to be a horrible warning." (Catherine Aird)


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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2017 4:15 am 
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Is that documentary viewable online ?


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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:05 pm 
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Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
Is that documentary viewable online ?


A Friend of mine told me its available on a certain well known, but blocked website, but I'm sure there are proxies out there ... buccaneers cove or something ? :x

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"Mr Kelly said Ireland’s “reputational capital” had been damaged by “chancers” such as ex-Anglo Irish Bank chairman Seán FitzPatrick, who had been abetted by “buffoons” such as former financial regulator Patrick Neary, Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan and the Taoiseach." - Irish Times 13th Jan 2009

"If you can't be a good example, then you'll just have to be a horrible warning." (Catherine Aird)


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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:07 am 
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Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
Is that documentary viewable online ?


Yeah just google "Who owns New Zealand now?"

http://hdgo.to/movie/GWlk8lld-who-owns- ... nload.html

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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:09 am 
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fishfoodie wrote:
It sounds like it might work the opposite to the way I expected; with Oz sneezes, & NZ catches a cold.

Instead it might be, NZ gets a veruca, & Oz loses a leg.

Contagion is the name of the game; & the more links in your financial system, to other sources of infection, the more inevitable the final collapse


Yup, all the main NZ banks are owned by Oz banks. A major crash here could make the entire Oz banking system collapse. Gonna be....interesting :P

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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:15 am 
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And the Aussie government has guaranteed the banks, fun times! Imagine the Aussie government paying for the New Zealand mess (pretending Australia had no bubble of its own)


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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:58 am 
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Australian Banks Sitting on A$500 Billion of 'Liar Loans,'

Quote:
The country’s lenders could be sitting on A$500 billion ($402 billion) of “liar loans,” or mortgages obtained on inaccurate financial information, according to an estimate from UBS Group AG.

A survey by the firm of 907 Australians who took out a mortgage in the last 12 months found only 67 percent stated their application was “completely factual and accurate,” down from 72 percent the previous year. The most common inaccuracies were overstating income and understating living expenses, the survey found.

These findings “suggest mortgagors are more stretched than the banks believe, implying losses in a downturn could be larger than the banks anticipate,” analysts including Jonathan Mott wrote in a note to clients dated Sept. 11.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-11/aussie-banks-sitting-on-a-500-billion-of-liar-loans-ubs-says


It's fascinating how, after watching the practical implosion of the USA-EU banking system, the Ozzies allow themselves commit the very same crimes.
I'm beginning to think financial courses in university should devote an entire semester on 'Past Mistakes'.


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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:07 am 
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Human nature cannot be overruled.
Simply too much money on the tabke and people can't say no.
Its not one person it just builds up overtime with millions of individual actions.


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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:35 am 
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taipeir wrote:
Human nature cannot be overruled.
Simply too much money on the tabke and people can't say no.
Its not one person it just builds up overtime with millions of individual actions.


Indeed.
I also think that banks look upon their 'product' in the same way as someone selling a consumable (like shoes).
But they are very different.

A banks product needs to be repaid over 20-30 years.
It's not a once-off sale, but the start of a long relationship.

Selling shoes is a one-night stand.
A loan is a marriage.

But the marketing graduates just see 'sales' figures and neglect the nature of the animal they are pimping.

They need to view giving loans, not as 'sales figures', but 'profit figures'.
Then they'd realise that the money isn't made the instant a contract is signed, but 20 years down the line.


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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:04 am 
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Quote:
BNZ chief economist Tony Alexander said the house price cycle "petering out", with help from the banks tightening their lending criteria, meant opportunities were opening up.

Prices have started to stagnate, particularly in Auckland, and turnover has dropped by as much as a third, year-on-year, in parts of the country.

Reserve Bank statistics show that the amount of lending being done per month to investors fell by about $1 billion between July 2015 and July 2017.

Across the country, seasonally adjusted sales were down 19.1 per cent compared to 2016. The biggest drops were in Southland, down 3.57 per cent, Northland, down 28.4 per cent, Taranaki, down 24.6 per cent and Waikato, down 23.4 per cent


https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/proper ... pportunity


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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:09 am 
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^^^ That guy should be hung.


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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:37 pm 
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The UK have a prudential limit that says no more than 15% of new mortgages written can be at >4.5 times borrower income. For comparison, NZ banking industry is consistently well over 40% for the same measure. Auckland area is much, much worse still. Having plenty of exposure to Australian banking I thought that country was nuts, but New Zealand puts even that in the shade.


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