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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:59 am 
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Quote:
Nationally, the number of properties sold during September fell 26.2% from 7352 to 5428 — the lowest number of properties sold in September for six years.

The median residential property price from sales across New Zealand rose by 1.2% to $525,000; Otago rose 6% to $397,500.Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said the house price index had risen for the second month in a row, with price stabilisation due to interest rates not rising and the sharp drop in listings, which alleviated the downward pressure on house prices.

"Property owners don’t sell into a falling market if they don’t have to," he said.

Regions with the largest reduction in volumes were Tasman, down 37%, Southland, down 34%, and Auckland, down 31.5%. In Dunedin, the median price rose 16% to $370,000, with sales down 4.9% to 173, while the Queenstown Lakes district median price rose


https://www.odt.co.nz/business/house-sales-down-prices

Quote:
"Consumer spending has cooled significantly in recent months - in fact, the level of card spending is down since the start of the year," said Westpac chief economist Michael Gordon.

"Consumer spending in New Zealand tends to have a strong link with the housing market, and the slowdown in spending is consistent with the cooling in house prices over the last year. In the absence of a renewed fall in interest rates, we expect the housing market, and therefore growth in consumer spending, to remain subdued over the next couple of years."

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news ... d=11932091


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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:37 am 
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You just have to shake your head at the levels of Canny McSavvy-ness in this article

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/979569 ... ng-through

In other news auctions failing:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/proper ... in-rotorua

Mad, Ted.

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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2017 9:25 am 
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What could possibly go wrong.

So you have a new PM, who could never win a contested constituency election, with zero government experience at any level, in fact has never had a real job in her life, who was made party leader by big faction party fixers, leads party to a so so second place in the election, but then is made PM by a deal with a minor party that had a terrible election, a minor party whose political platform is the complete opposite of every second place party policy, purely because the minor party leader, a soon to retire 75 year old, wanted payback against the leader of the party that came first in the election because of an internal first party power struggle 25 years ago which the minor party leader lost (him being a senior member of the first place party at the time) and which the first place party leader won. Soon afterwards minor party leader flounces off, resigning from first place party, and sets up the minor party just waiting for the day he could get his final revenge.

Which was yesterday.

And they say Queensland politics is bizarre.


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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2017 10:31 am 
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Jacinda Arden is the new PM of a coalition NzLabour, NzFirst, NzGreens.
What's interesting is their immigration restrictions:
NZ Labour said it intends to cut the number of immigrants, particularly students on low level courses and young and unskilled workers
NzFirst said 'Immigration should not be used as a source of cheap labour to undermine New Zealanders' pay and conditions. New Zealand First's view is simple - we welcome the people we need and not those who need us. New Zealand First will strengthen Immigration New Zealand to give it the capacity to apply immigration policy effectively'

Further, Jacinda Arden said that they want to move away from rising property values equalling prosperity, create an economy not based on property.

Sounds like common sense to me.


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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:46 am 
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temene wrote:
Jacinda Arden is the new PM of a coalition NzLabour, NzFirst, NzGreens.
What's interesting is their immigration restrictions:
NZ Labour said it intends to cut the number of immigrants, particularly students on low level courses and young and unskilled workers
NzFirst said 'Immigration should not be used as a source of cheap labour to undermine New Zealanders' pay and conditions. New Zealand First's view is simple - we welcome the people we need and not those who need us. New Zealand First will strengthen Immigration New Zealand to give it the capacity to apply immigration policy effectively'

Further, Jacinda Arden said that they want to move away from rising property values equalling prosperity, create an economy not based on property.

Sounds like common sense to me.


Except she flip flopped all through the election. Talked about capital gains on property sales at first, then out the door when it went down like lead balloon. Saying that it was a very content free election campaign from all sides. The rest of the Labour manifest is hot air. A sort of vague nostalgia for the days before Rogernomics. When free stuff politics was a lot simpler.

The problem with NZ First's immigration policy is it is just the old White Australia policy in modern garb. They always gave me a very weird vibe. Reminded me too much of Pauline Hansons One Nation party. Plus as a big chunk of NZ's prime working age population lives in Oz I'm not sure NZ can be as picky as Oz about who they let it.

As for the property bubble, that depends completely on Oz. They own all the banks. When Oz banks finally kills cheap credit, then the NZ market will implode. And all NZ political parties know that.

I expect it to be a short lived government. Once English gets chucked overboard, yet again, by the NP I suspect Peters will pull his support for Labour and the Greens.


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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Sun Oct 22, 2017 11:01 pm 
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LOL ah the bitter snarling of the aggrieved Trumpette when the lunatic right loses another election. It has been rather fun poking fun at all the insane screeching from the alt-reality far-right these last few days.

Look the facts in the actual really real world are that Labour, Greens and NZ First all had the housing crisis as a major plank of their manifestos, and all largely agreed that prices are stupidly overvalued and need to come down.

Labour and NZ First both wanted to cut immigration especially of students and unskilled workers - everyone (apart from, apparently, Nat voters) knows Auckland is simply overloaded with people right now.

Greens and Labour wanted to curtail the inflow of hot, mainly Chinese, speculator money.

All three wanted to ramp up supply including reinvigorating the moribund State housing scheme.

NZ First have a major interest in regional development to inject jobs and life into regional cities and thus also take some of the pressure off Auckland Wellington and Christchurch.

Finally, property prices had already peaked and stalled in most main centres months before the election....pre-Jacinda when most pundits were confidently predicting an easy win for Fianna Fail *cough* I mean National.

What do you get if you increase supply, reduce demand, and cut off speculative inflows from abroad? Prices fall. All three parties are aware of this. It's what they want, to move away from an economy based on property speculation and get back to exports of goods and services. A fall in prices is coming anyway as Auckland in particular now has prices that make Dublin 2006 seem sedate and conservative. So the new Govt is going to attempt to manage the decline and get the housing market back to something approaching sanity. How successful they are we'll just have to see, but one thing is certain, if National had stayed in power there was no chance of a managed deflation of property, it would have been an almighty destructive crash.

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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:49 am 
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Posts: 4206
Sidewinder wrote:
LOL ah the bitter snarling of the aggrieved Trumpette when the lunatic right loses another election. It has been rather fun poking fun at all the insane screeching from the alt-reality far-right these last few days.

Look the facts in the actual really real world are that Labour, Greens and NZ First all had the housing crisis as a major plank of their manifestos, and all largely agreed that prices are stupidly overvalued and need to come down.

Labour and NZ First both wanted to cut immigration especially of students and unskilled workers - everyone (apart from, apparently, Nat voters) knows Auckland is simply overloaded with people right now.

Greens and Labour wanted to curtail the inflow of hot, mainly Chinese, speculator money.

All three wanted to ramp up supply including reinvigorating the moribund State housing scheme.

NZ First have a major interest in regional development to inject jobs and life into regional cities and thus also take some of the pressure off Auckland Wellington and Christchurch.

Finally, property prices had already peaked and stalled in most main centres months before the election....pre-Jacinda when most pundits were confidently predicting an easy win for Fianna Fail *cough* I mean National.

What do you get if you increase supply, reduce demand, and cut off speculative inflows from abroad? Prices fall. All three parties are aware of this. It's what they want, to move away from an economy based on property speculation and get back to exports of goods and services. A fall in prices is coming anyway as Auckland in particular now has prices that make Dublin 2006 seem sedate and conservative. So the new Govt is going to attempt to manage the decline and get the housing market back to something approaching sanity. How successful they are we'll just have to see, but one thing is certain, if National had stayed in power there was no chance of a managed deflation of property, it would have been an almighty destructive crash.


Well having watched the domestic media coverage and the leaders debate that was not the impression I got. I know NZ politics has its own peculiar dynamics. Its not Oz. But since the Muldoon days, which is when I started learning about NZ domestic politics from talking with Kiwis, this was probably the most content free election I can remember. I actually dug deeper this time around than I normally would during elections in the John Key years precisely because it seemed on initial inspection to be an issue free election. The deeper I dug the less I found. On both sides.

Despite what you say, there are no concrete proposals from the new government that will make one iota of difference to the current property bubble. Banning foreigners from buying second hand single family residences. Yeah, sure, that will make a huge difference. They mostly buy new ones. The foreign buyers register? Both trivial to get around for foreign buyers. Stop selling social housing? None of these "measures" will have any real impact on the price dynamics. Which is complete dependent on cheap bank debt. And the banks are all Oz owned. To them NZ is just an offshore extension of the Gold Coast. Sure the current Auckland prices are insane. Unconnected to economic reality. But there again, so is a NZ$16.50 minimum wage. Let alone a NZ$20 one. A large part of the electorate still refuse to accept that the good old days are over. Never to come back. Pretend the 1980's collapse never happened.

The proposed immigration controls are just a revival of the old White New Zealand immigration policies, only abandoned in 1974. Nothing more. Both the demographics of support and the motivation for this policy has not changed in 50 years.

The fact that you think that the National Party = FF shows that you still have not got the hang of non Irish party politics yet. Which is unique. The National Party is basically FG. Labour are basically Irish Labour plus the Bertie Ahern "socialist" wing of FF. Remember until recently FF got more working class votes than the Irish Labour Party. Now if you want a NZ party that is closest to FF in party platform and tendencies look no further than NZ First. The junior party in the new Labour coalition government. And a party that worked quite well with Labour in the past. Much better than with the NP.

In the end still does not distract from the fact that if it had not been for Peters personal vendetta against English, leader of the NP, Labour would not have formed a government. Or if Key had not resigned, for that matter. And given the NZ First party's very spotty previous coalition history it does not bode well for any kind of stable government.

So the bubble will continue until it crashes of it own accord. Just like it did in Ireland. Not one single proposed government policy (from either side) will make the slightest difference. Except inadvertently. The rest of the new governments "policies" are just old style pork barrel programs. Which have a track record just as successful as they do in Ireland. Although for the truly spectacular failures you have to go back to the Muldoon era. Some of those lost billions. Back when NZ still had money.

So just another kicking the can down the road government. If its any consolation current NZ politics is still far more rooted in reality than the current Irish political scene. Which has now detached itself completely and totally from reality for some time now. Forget 2006. It is now well beyond 1977 territory by this stage.


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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Tue Oct 24, 2017 1:16 am 
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jmc wrote:
Well having watched the domestic media coverage and the leaders debate that was not the impression I got. I know NZ politics has its own peculiar dynamics. Its not Oz. But since the Muldoon days, which is when I started learning about NZ domestic politics from talking with Kiwis, this was probably the most content free election I can remember. I actually dug deeper this time around than I normally would during elections in the John Key years precisely because it seemed on initial inspection to be an issue free election. The deeper I dug the less I found. On both sides.


OK I simply stopped reading at this point on the assumption the rest of it would just be some lunatic far-right alt-reality rant. No issues in this election? Would you go and boil yer heid.

The housing crisis, rental WOFs, the homelessness epidemic, state housing provision, increasing private supply and a myriad of housing-related issues were a huge part of the campaign.

Water quality in the rivers. Water taxes. Again huge issues especially in rural farming areas, with large farmer protests.

Mental health services and attendant issues like the shocking rate of youth suicide.

Child poverty was a big issue.

NZF made a lot of fuss about regional development and re-instating a national forestry service.

There was a big argument between National and Labour on income taxes and GST rates.

I could go on, but I simply can't be bothered. Last election was largely content-free, but this one had a lot of intense debates on a wide range of economic, social and environmental matters.

And that's why National lost in the end. Because right to the end they were insisting that none of those issues mattered or weren't really problems, when Labour, NZ First and the Greens all agreed that these were serious problems. In the end there was just far too much common ground between the three on the need to tackle these issues compared to National's "do nothing" approach.

Basically, you haven't a clue. Stop blowharding.

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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:45 am 
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Joined: Jan 14, 2009
Posts: 655
Sidewinder wrote:
jmc wrote:
Well having watched the domestic media coverage and the leaders debate that was not the impression I got. I know NZ politics has its own peculiar dynamics. Its not Oz. But since the Muldoon days, which is when I started learning about NZ domestic politics from talking with Kiwis, this was probably the most content free election I can remember. I actually dug deeper this time around than I normally would during elections in the John Key years precisely because it seemed on initial inspection to be an issue free election. The deeper I dug the less I found. On both sides.


OK I simply stopped reading at this point on the assumption the rest of it would just be some lunatic far-right alt-reality rant. No issues in this election? Would you go and boil yer heid.

The housing crisis, rental WOFs, the homelessness epidemic, state housing provision, increasing private supply and a myriad of housing-related issues were a huge part of the campaign.

Water quality in the rivers. Water taxes. Again huge issues especially in rural farming areas, with large farmer protests.

Mental health services and attendant issues like the shocking rate of youth suicide.

Child poverty was a big issue.

NZF made a lot of fuss about regional development and re-instating a national forestry service.

There was a big argument between National and Labour on income taxes and GST rates.

I could go on, but I simply can't be bothered. Last election was largely content-free, but this one had a lot of intense debates on a wide range of economic, social and environmental matters.

And that's why National lost in the end. Because right to the end they were insisting that none of those issues mattered or weren't really problems, when Labour, NZ First and the Greens all agreed that these were serious problems. In the end there was just far too much common ground between the three on the need to tackle these issues compared to National's "do nothing" approach.

Basically, you haven't a clue. Stop blowharding.


Well clearly you've never actually spent any time in New Zea....

...oh. Wait.


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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Wed Oct 25, 2017 7:20 pm 
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Quote:
New Zealand will ban foreign buyers from purchasing existing homes in the country in an effort to cool soaring property prices.
Prime minister-elect Jacinda Ardern said the ban only applied to non-residents.
The country is facing a housing affordability crisis which has left home ownership out of reach for many.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41745129

I wonder how this will be received in Australia.

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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 3:15 am 
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catbear wrote:
I wonder how this will be received in Australia.


Given the crazed sexist ranting in the Oz media the last week or so, I doubt Jacinda will particularly care what Oz bogans think. Besides, it's mainly aimed at all the hot Chinese money.

Vancouver and Toronto introduced foreign-buyer taxes last year because the Chinese money was distorting their property markets, so this is hardly unprecedented in Pacific Rim countries.

Strong parallels with the 2007 election in Ireland. The market here stalled months ago, it has already peaked and will start declining naturally anyway and anyone paying attention knows this, indeed both Winston and Jacinda have made comments to that effect. The difference is that we have a fresh government who are expecting a fall in property prices and planning to manage the situation, unlike the 2007 FF idiots who seemed to go on believing it was "just a blip" right up until the banks collapsed in Sept 2008.

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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 5:24 am 
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Quote:
Reserve Bank of New Zealand data
•To its lowest since April
•Lending to investors -32% y/y (lowest since February)
•Lending to other owner-occupiers -20% y/y

http://www.forexlive.com/news/!/nz-sept ... y-20171026

interesting stats:
Investor lending less than half the sept 2015 figure
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/c31
all lending down but Interest only down the most
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/c32


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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 11:47 am 
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catbear wrote:
New Zealand will ban foreign buyers from purchasing existing homes in the country in an effort to cool soaring property prices. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41745129
I wonder how this will be received in Australia.

That is so so, dunno, sensible. Makes perfect sense to me.
Oh wait, Australia already bans foreigners buying property.
Non-resident foreign persons are generally prohibited from purchasing established dwellings in Australia.
Foreign persons generally need to apply and receive foreign investment approval before purchasing new dwellings

Oops, but is it enforced - FIRB ‘failing’ to enforce rules on foreigners buying Australian homes
They actually call them 'foreigners' . Imagine that language here! :?


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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 12:12 pm 
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temene wrote:
Oh wait, Australia already bans foreigners buying property.
Non-resident foreign persons are generally prohibited from purchasing established dwellings in Australia.
Foreign persons generally need to apply and receive foreign investment approval before purchasing new dwellings

Oops, but is it enforced

Aside from the 888 visas, I remember a lot stories about how chinese money was funnelled through student visas, once they were resident they were allowed buy. I don't know what the rules on retaining ownership were once residency rights under student visas had elapsed but I'd imagine the property complex was on their side to keep apartments empty and prices high.

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 Post subject: Re: Entering Denial in New Zealand
PostPosted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:49 pm 
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Sidewinder wrote:
catbear wrote:
I wonder how this will be received in Australia.


Given the crazed sexist ranting in the Oz media the last week or so, I doubt Jacinda will particularly care what Oz bogans think. Besides, it's mainly aimed at all the hot Chinese money.

Vancouver and Toronto introduced foreign-buyer taxes last year because the Chinese money was distorting their property markets, so this is hardly unprecedented in Pacific Rim countries.



The new measures in NZ will be watched closely in Canada. In Vancouver, many local buyers remain priced out of the market.


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