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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Sun Apr 29, 2018 7:54 am 
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Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
Quote:
Sydney’s population grows by 100,000 for the first time as locals leave to make way for immigrants

SYDNEYSIDERS are fleeing in droves as record numbers of overseas migrants push up house prices and clog roads.

MORE than 18,000 people abandoned Sydney last year to make way for nearly 85,000 overseas migrants, with the total population growth in the nation’s biggest city topping 100,000 for the first time ever.

Australian Bureau of Statistics figures for 2016-17 released on Tuesday show Sydney’s population was 5.1 million in June 2017, an increase of 101,600 people, or 2 per cent on the previous year.

That figure included 84,684 from net overseas migration, 34,994 from natural increase — births minus deaths — and a loss of 18,120 to net internal migration, compared with the 15,900 people who left in 2015-16.


Immigration is essential to the Sydney market/bubble. Bad for migrants like me in long run as it fosters resentment. I really dont want a scenario where the living standards collapse here.

Quote:
Around 80 per cent of the total net overseas migration went to Sydney and Melbourne. Together, Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane accounted for more than 70 per cent of Australia’s population growth in 2016-17. Darwin, Adelaide and Perth experienced relatively low rates of population growth, each at 1 per cent or less.


Cram them in. Also hints, if you delve into details, that Melbourne and Brisbane still have decent living standards if you take the view that population growth from first world people (whether births or internal migration) mean its an ok place. Also by that measure population growth almost entirely by 3rd world migration combined with locals leaving = dropping living standards.


Quote:
The news comes amid growing calls for Australia’s record high immigration intake to be scaled back. A survey in August last year by the Australian Population Research Institute found 74 per cent of voters said the country does not need more people.


Changing opinion (its always had polls in favour of migration since most people here are migrants)

Quote:
Australian Population Research Institute’s Bob Birrell that only a small number of so-called skilled migrants were actually employed in professional positions.


Wage growth is damned in the long term due to this latent supply/underemployment.


Quote:
According to a recent study by Infrastructure Australia, Melbourne and Sydney’s populations will surge to 7.3 million and 7.4 million respectively by the year 2046.

The report looked at different scenarios for urban development — expanded low density, centralised high density and rebalanced medium density — concluding that relative living standards would fall in all three cases.

“No matter what we do, New York-style high-rise or LA sprawl, everything’s going to get worse — traffic congestion, access to jobs, parking, schools, hospitals, green space,” Mr van Onselen said.

“Tolls are set to rise 4 per cent a year for the next 34 years. We can see it’s going to cost everyone more just to maintain this madness. The question is why? Why do this to yourself? It’s a policy choice.”


If Australia keeps building up population it will lose more and more of its agricultural exports to home demand. Essentially the economy is FIRE, mining and agriculture with the latter two bringing in the foreign currency that allows Australia to import finished goods (mostly from China like everywhere else in the West does). Any drops in exports decrease living standards. Therefore while higher population makes the government look better with higher GDP the GDP per capita in real terms is dismal here. The place has been going backwards for a while and people are only now starting to realise.

http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/ ... e7478fcbf9


A large amount of migrants are skilled, which is a positive for the economy. The unskilled who end up staying are students. Who usually pay 30-40k per year for their tuition alone. So Australia easily benefits from over $120k per person (before other costs). At the end of their degree they can apply for a job and visa to stay in Oz. They are young so they are not a liability to the economy. The money for these students is usually from Chinese and Indian parents etc who want the Western lifestyle for their kids and the parents will benefit from them as well. It's a form of manufacturing as it brings so much $ into the economy.
Then, construction is needed to house them and its a good employer. Particularly non skilled men who are happy to labour.
Sydney and Melbourne are the best cities with the big/popular Unis so that's where a lot of the demand is.
The population increase helps support the tax burden/liability of the elderly on the young etc.

Edit, I do think the sting needs to taken out of the price of Sydney/Melbourne property.

_________________
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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Sun Apr 29, 2018 12:35 pm 
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Location: Australia
and who takes care of them/helps support the tax burden of the elderly on the old when they get old?
Sound like a population ponzi scheme?

The whole economy is being skewed by several bit ticket items. One of which is changing education into a full on export business.


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:36 pm 
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Of Systemic Importance

Joined: Sep 13, 2012
Posts: 5194
Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
and who takes care of them/helps support the tax burden of the elderly on the old when they get old?
Sound like a population ponzi scheme?

Would you have the same objections to rising population caused by birth rate? What sort of measures would you propose if that were the case? One child policy?

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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:31 am 
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Location: Australia
natural birth rates rise and fall naturally, dumping the third world on the west would at worst reduce the west to third world conditions and at best reduce the standard of living

Quote:
Australian Bureau of Statistics data released on Tuesday showed Sydney’s population rose 2 per cent in 2016-17 to 5.1 million, an increase of 101,600 people. That was fuelled by 85,000 overseas migrants

http://www.news.com.au/national/victori ... 11caf711ad


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Mon Apr 30, 2018 8:08 am 
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Joined: Nov 6, 2006
Posts: 8776
Location: Australia
Quote:
Home prices across Australia’s five mainland state capital cities fell by 0.3% over the past four weeks in average weighted terms, according to data released by CoreLogic today.

The drop largely reflected ongoing weakness in Australia’s largest and most expensive housing markets, Sydney and Melbourne.

In nominal terms, prices fell by 0.4% in Melbourne, and by 0.3% in Sydney. Even with a mixed performance across the remaining mainland state capitals over the same period, it was enough to drag the national price gauge lower.

According to Macquarie Bank, the data implies that the drop in Australian dwelling prices accelerated in April in annualised terms.

It shows the annual change in Australian home prices, according to the CoreLogic data, overlaid against separate home price information released by Australian Property Monitors (APM).

Macquarie has seasonally adjusted the nominal price movements in the CoreLogic data to show the relationship between the two.
Based on the latest information, it suggests Australian home prices are now falling at a faster annual pace than earlier this year.

Image
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/aust ... ril-2018-4


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:59 am 
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Of Systemic Importance

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Posts: 5194
Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
natural birth rates rise and fall naturally

That's not an answer to my question.

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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 1:38 am 
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Location: Australia
Natural increases/decreases in the west are flattening out to stable populations so its all moot
Migration is a great tap to help during booms like the recent mining boom to keep a lid on competitiveness. At the moment wages are flat at a time of high debt and a housing bubble and rental shortage in the main migrant destinations. It really just looks like the record breaking rate of migration is simply being used to prop up the property bubble which is just going to end in a drop in the quality of life/standard of living etc etc.


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2018 6:42 am 
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Joined: Nov 6, 2006
Posts: 8776
Location: Australia
Adelaide city centre:
Quote:
$60 million U2 Apartments on Waymouth St goes into administration

The 27 storey building on Waymouth St has been plagued by speculation around its management and cash flow since apartments totalling $25 million were allegedly sold in a flurry on the opening sales weekend in May 2015.

When building finally began last year after several delays, construction firm Built Environs walked off the site in December over an alleged lack of payments leaving just the ground floor complete.

Jin Liang, the chairman of Datong, a Runtong offshoot promoting U2, fled to China late last year amid rumours of misspending and poor cash flow which led to Built Environs pulling out.

“Chinese banks are delaying and even blocking some foreign exchange transactions under a decision by the central government to limit capital leaving the country,” Mr Liang told the Advertiser in a statement.


Last week North Adelaide based CEG Securities put the U2 site up for sale after Datong was unable to keep up with repayments.

CEG director Jim Ventrice said difficulties in the transfer of money between China and Australia was at the root of the new development.

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/business/ ... 2140a7a51b

Quote:
Five developments are forecast to bring 445 apartments to the CBD this financial year with a jump next year to 850 apartments, also from five projects, according to Adelaide City Council data.

The following year will see a dip to 384 apartments.

All in all there are 2423 apartments in the CBD pipeline behind the 1174 already on the way from the 18 projects now up and running. It will be some trick to pull off.


http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/adel ... ebaca425a5


Quote:
Between 2011 and 2016, Adelaide city residential growth was driven by overseas migration (or as the council puts it “mostly Chinese students”) — about 5,700 of them.


https://www.adelaidereview.com.au/opini ... fail-sell/


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2018 2:20 am 
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Joined: Nov 6, 2006
Posts: 8776
Location: Australia
old news
Quote:
The ABS said nearly 30 per cent of Australian households were over-burdened with debt, with mortgages the driving cause.

A quarter of the households in the top income bracket were over indebted, compared to one in six low-income families



http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-13/h ... en/8939984

recent news

Quote:
The number of struggling borrowers seeking mortgage refinance has doubled to more than 30 per cent as lenders increase rates and fees, and toughen scrutiny of borrower income and expenses, according to a new analysis.

Read more: http://www.afr.com/real-estate/number-o ... z5EOhBWcz0
Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook


remember the average interest only reset will add $7,000 a year onto repayments


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2018 3:37 am 
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Joined: Nov 6, 2006
Posts: 8776
Location: Australia
RC info coming out:

Westpac mortgage customers' debt-to-income ratio
Image

Quote:
"This data raises questions regarding the quality of WBC's $400b mortgage book (70% of its loans). While WBC has undertaken significant work to improve its mortgage underwriting standards over the last 12 months, we expect it and the other majors to further sharpen underwriting standards given the Royal Commission's concerns with Responsible Lending. This could potentially lead to a sharp reduction in credit availability (credit crunch)."


Quote:
But Westpac has responded, saying its delinquency rate remains low at 0.67 per cent, with a further update due at its half-year results on May 7.


Quote:
investors are taking heed of the UBS "sell" call on Westpac, with the bank's shares off 4.6 per cent to $27.84


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-26/b ... n=business

as we know from recent GFC era history delinquencies rise when prices fall

Image
Quote:
It calculates the number of property views on the groups website in the past three months against the average number of property listings, comparing the percentage change compared to a year earlier.

While from a national perspective views per advertisement increased by 5.1%, those in Sydney plummeted by 25.4%, indicating that interest in Australia’s most expensive housing market has fallen dramatically, helping to explain why prices are going backwards

Read more at https://www.businessinsider.com.au/aust ... dVjiA0c.99


Quote:
Over 50 insiders have notified me during past few years, latest yesterday, that the IO Loan scandal as a % of the entire mortgage loan books for five majors is close to 90%. of $1.9 Trillion. APRA lying with 40%.


https://mobile.twitter.com/DeniseBraile ... 7281373185


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2018 3:44 am 
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Joined: Nov 6, 2006
Posts: 8776
Location: Australia
State Arrears Oct 2017

Image

December 2017

Image

http://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog ... -defaults/

and April 2018 info:
Quote:
April 2018 mortgage stress and default analysis update.

Across Australia, more than 963,000 households are estimated to be now in mortgage stress (last month 956,000). This equates to 30.1% of owner occupied borrowing households. In addition, more than 21,600 of these are in severe stress, up 500 from last month. We estimate that more than 55,600 households risk 30-day default in the next 12 months. We expect bank portfolio losses to be around 2.8 basis points, though losses in WA are higher at 5 basis points. We continue to see the impact of flat wages growth, rising living costs and higher real mortgage rates

Image

http://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Fri May 04, 2018 1:16 am 
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Joined: Nov 6, 2006
Posts: 8776
Location: Australia
Quote:
RENTS in Sydney’s commuter and beach suburbs have soared over the past year after record levels of overseas migration put a stranglehold on the supply of rental accommodation.


New property data showed rental prices surged by more than 20 per cent in some suburbs, with the largest increases typically in the areas that were most popular with new arrivals from overseas.

The biggest increases were in Chatswood West, a popular choice among migrants from China.

Weekly rent on a typical house in the suburb was $710 last year and has since grown to $1000, according to CoreLogic.

The surrounding region was also the most searched for area among renters on realestate.com.au.

Typical advertised rents for houses in beach enclave Coogee, popular with European arrivals, increased from $1000 per week last year to about $1390.

Quote:
Other suburbs including Neutral Bay, Cammeray, Hurlstone Park, Pagewood, North Sydney and North Epping recorded rent rises of more than 10 per cent.

Those born overseas currently make up more than a third of the residents in each of these areas.

The rent increases defied a slowing rental market in the rest of the city, where rampant unit construction gave tenants an increased choice of homes.

Asking rents for houses in the city as a whole decreased 1.3 per cent over the year to April, while unit rents fell back 0.8 per cent, SQM Research figures showed.


http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-est ... b93c24e479


Quote:
Business council, unions join forces to call for 'no reduction' to migration rate
It comes following reports of a fractious debate within the Coalition over whether the current 190,000 cap on permanent visas should be reduced.

Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott has urged a major cut to 110,000 places, while Home Affairs minister Peter Dutton said he had “canvassed different options” but denied a report he urged cabinet to back a reduction of 20,000 places.

Insignificant reductions

Quote:
The Home Affairs department estimates 511,900 people will have arrived in Australia by the end of this financial year in June 2018.

Minus the 286,200 people who leave, and Australia should be left with a “net” migration of 225,700.


https://www.sbs.com.au/news/business-co ... ation-rate


Quote:
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian believes the current immigration levels are "about right" and has called for a meeting with federal and state leaders to discuss the issue.


https://www.sbs.com.au/news/berejiklian ... bout-right


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Fri May 04, 2018 2:36 pm 
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Joined: Jul 31, 2009
Posts: 113
But population decline is a bad thing! :P


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 1:43 pm 
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Joined: Nov 6, 2006
Posts: 8776
Location: Australia
Quote:
Westpac CEO Brian Hartzer today predicted an “orderly slowdown” in the housing market, dismissing talk of a credit crunch as the bank posted a lift in half year cash profit on the back of growth in consumer and business banking.

The bank reported a 6% lift in cash profit to $4.25 billion for the six months to March.

Hartzer says the bank’s lending books are performing well despite a cooling in the housing market in recent months.

Cash earnings at Westpac’s Consumer Bank grew 12% to $1.72 billion, supported by a 6% rise in mortgages in the six months to March.

The bank has 23% of the Australian mortgage market. The consumer bank contribute 40% of the bank’s earnings.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/west ... ket-2018-5


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2018 7:21 am 
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Joined: Nov 6, 2006
Posts: 8776
Location: Australia
Quote:
A scheme enabling people of pension age to borrow against the value of their homes will be significantly boosted in Tuesday's federal budget as part of a multibillion-dollar package to ease the economic strain and aged-care crisis set to be caused by the impending retirement of the Baby Boomer generation.

Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/policy/budget/f ... z5Ez06Ylme
Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook


Quote:
A union protest in the centre of Melbourne's CBD shut down roads and tram routes for three hours on Wednesday as up to 100,000 workers rallied for new pay deals.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/vict ... 4ze5z.html


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