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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Sat May 13, 2017 9:27 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Sun May 14, 2017 10:31 am 
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China invests $124bn in Belt and Road global trade project
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39912671

Reporter mentions that there is already overcapacity. If that's true then what's it all about? (government stimulus perhaps )


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Sun May 14, 2017 11:02 am 
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Building a Chinese empire and also providing jobs to their workers

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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Sun May 14, 2017 12:36 pm 
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temene wrote:
Building a Chinese empire and also providing jobs to their workers

It was massive investment in transportation infrastructure that got the British empire to where it was at the start of the 20tn century, so, yes history is rhyming.
China has a very good chance of having a global empire within 50 years as they will have a majority stake in many "third world countries", they already have made major inroads into many African & Latin American countries to this end.

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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Sun May 14, 2017 12:55 pm 
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snaps wrote:
China invests $124bn in Belt and Road global trade project
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39912671

Reporter mentions that there is already overcapacity. If that's true then what's it all about? (government stimulus perhaps )

I didn't see that in the link but I believe the quickest freight journey took 18 days in January this year and involved a lot of container switching between different gauge rails. I imagine the new project would mean a single gauge, single engined train that would significantly reduce transit time and make passenger transport a real option too.

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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Sun May 14, 2017 12:56 pm 
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dolanbaker wrote:
temene wrote:
Building a Chinese empire and also providing jobs to their workers

It was massive investment in transportation infrastructure that got the British empire to where it was at the start of the 20tn century, so, yes history is rhyming.
China has a very good chance of having a global empire within 50 years as they will have a majority stake in many "third world countries", they already have made major inroads into many African & Latin American countries to this end.

But will they have a different outcome to Britain/France?

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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Sun May 14, 2017 1:22 pm 
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yoganmahew wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:
temene wrote:
Building a Chinese empire and also providing jobs to their workers

It was massive investment in transportation infrastructure that got the British empire to where it was at the start of the 20tn century, so, yes history is rhyming.
China has a very good chance of having a global empire within 50 years as they will have a majority stake in many "third world countries", they already have made major inroads into many African & Latin American countries to this end.

But will they have a different outcome to Britain/France?

The Chinese could easily end up having so much influence that they effectively end up running a country (Like Britain did in India).
Depends on what country is going to be next on the empire trail, the US had been clearly the leaders since the middle of the 20th century and China is gradually taking their place.

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"Democracy is like sausage, you want it, but you don't want to know how it is made". [John Godfrey Saxe]
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Sun May 14, 2017 3:09 pm 
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dolanbaker wrote:
The Chinese could easily end up having so much influence that they effectively end up running a country (Like Britain did in India).
Depends on what country is going to be next on the empire trail, the US had been clearly the leaders since the middle of the 20th century and China is gradually taking their place.

I reckon Australia is a prime candidate for Chinese Dominion status.
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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Thu May 25, 2017 12:12 am 
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Highly recommend this

http://video.aljazeera.com/channels/eng ... F779DA9896

Quote:
Al Jazeera Witness - Chinese Dreamland


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Fri May 26, 2017 3:56 am 
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http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/201 ... Sel_4eweUk

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/external-debt

Quote:
China’s economy is getting ever closer to what had existed in the United States when it was hit by the crisis triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Mon May 29, 2017 4:53 am 
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Quote:
China is borrowing to finance 40 per cent of its economic growth and the debt surge is fuelling concern about the financial and economic stability of the world’s second-largest economy.


Quote:
Total debt of government, non-financial corporates and households had already reached 256 per cent of GDP at the end of last year and it was still growing.

The University of Peking’s finance professor Michael Pettis says the 7 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) increase in lending to government, non-financial business and households in the first three months of the year was equivalent to 39 per cent of its nominal economic growth in that period.

He says lending through the shadow financial institutions would add a further 5 to 10 percentage points of debt to GDP to the total expansion of credit in the quarter. Pettis says that “mind-boggling” amount of debt was required to lift China’s growth rate by 3 to 4 percentage points above the sustainable growth rate.


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busines ... 0723578ce1


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Mon May 29, 2017 8:08 am 
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Who is lending these vast sums to the Chinese? If the arse drops out of China is it not these lenders that'll have the problems and not China. I can't see the Communist Party bending over backwards to prop up foreign lenders.

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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2017 8:17 pm 
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It's just funny money! FIAT currency expansión.

They have seemingly US$3trillion of foreign reserves if you can believe that
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... e_reserves

USA has US$120billion in 23 position, just below Algeria
Ireland in 102nd just above Albania

The issue is if it starts unravelling it can get out of control but then again China is unique in governance, control is something the government has in excess.
A reasonable ammount of the foreign investment is private citizens, especially in Australia, Canada, and some European countries but the numbers are staggering.

I don't doubt that China could take us all into a brutal global recession but I don't feel it will happen given the way the game is rigged.

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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Sat Jun 03, 2017 7:24 am 
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Quote:
For high-flying China, signs of a hard landing are now clear. Here's proof


http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/art ... aign=cppst


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Sat Jun 03, 2017 1:22 pm 
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Clouds gather around the Hong Kong property market.
Quote:
One who usually chooses his words carefully, Chan said the high turnout rate was reminiscent of the property market’s 1997 peak and saw conditions that eventually led to a market crash and a six-year slump.
Still, for every prophecy of doom, there is a believer in the upside.
“Home prices have always been high,” said Alice Shun, one of the hundreds of buyers in the queue for Ocean Pride. “I don’t think it can really ever go down from here. We have to buy property to live in them. So it doesn’t really affect our decision to buy.”

Two decades ago, the city’s hottest property was the Villa Esplanada complex in Tsing Yi, a joint project of Chinese Resources, Sun Hung Kai Properties and Cheung Kong Property. Hundreds of buyers thronged the project’s Causeway Bay sales office, going around the block.

A few months after the project’s launch, the 1997 Asian financial crisis arrived on Hong Kong’s shores, causing a 70 per cent collapse in home prices and driving an estimated 100,000 home owners into negative equity. It would take six years for the market to crawl out of the slump.
The bubble was there, said Cusson Leung, managing director at JPMorgan Chase’s Asia-Pacific equity research unit, who remembered the 1997 crash.
“We see the cloud hanging out there, but we are not sure when it will rain,” Leung said.

http://www.scmp.com/business/article/20 ... 1997-crash

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Those who don't study history are doomed to repeat it. Those who do study history are doomed to watch everyone else repeating it.


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