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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Wed Jun 28, 2017 9:09 am 
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Coming up to 20 years of Chinese rule in Hong Kong

Quote:
Hong Kong's pro-democracy groups are planning a series of protests as the former British colony stages a huge party to mark 20 years of Chinese communist rule.

Fireworks, a gala variety show and Chinese military displays are among the official events coinciding with a visit by China's president Xi Jinping, starting on Thursday.

State broadcaster China Central Television has been running daily news features extolling what it calls the inextricable ties between China and Hong Kong in fields ranging from sports to the military and the arts.
...

Mr Law said there was growing concern that Beijing was steadily eroding the "one country, two systems" principle put in place after it took control of the Asian financial hub.

Under that principle, Hong Kong largely runs its own affairs and enjoys civil liberties unseen on the mainland, but now, he said, "there are lots of people describing the current system as 'one country, 1.5 systems'".

He and others cited a list of incidents that stoke fears about China tightening control.

At the top is the case of five Hong Kong booksellers secretly detained on the mainland starting in late 2015 for selling gossipy titles about elite Chinese politics to mainland readers. One of the men, Gui Minhai, is still being held.

In a similar case, a Chinese-born tycoon with a Canadian passport went missing earlier this year from his hotel suite.

News reports indicated mainland Chinese security agents operating in Hong Kong abducted him - a breach of the city's constitution.

Many other government plans have raised hackles, including stationing Chinese immigration officers in a high-speed rail terminus under construction; setting up a local branch of Beijing's Palace Museum without public consultation; introducing so-called patriotic national education in schools that many parents fear is a cover for pro-communist brainwashing; and introducing anti-subversion national security legislation.

Another worry, said veteran pro-democracy MP Claudia Mo, was the flood of so-called "red capital" as mainland investors buy up property and expand businesses in Hong Kong, elbowing aside indigenous tycoons.

The wave of buying has been blamed for further inflating housing prices that make Hong Kong one of the world's most unequal places.

"We're supposed to be capitalists, fine. Except when it comes to public auctions of land, when all the big mainland concerns will always win," Ms Mo said.


http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingne ... 95453.html

God help the indigenous Tycoons.

_________________
The real damage is done by those millions who want to 'get by'. The ordinary men who just want to be left in peace. Those who don’t want their lives disturbed by anything bigger than themselves. Those with no sides and no causes. Those who won’t take measure of their own strength, for fear of antagonizing their own weakness. Those people who roll up their spirits into tiny little balls so as to be safe. Safe?! From what?
Sophie Scholl


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:31 am 
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Quote:
China's meteoric rise in home prices appears to be winding down -- a shift that suggests dark times ahead to those who witnessed the bursting of Japan's asset bubble. But keeping housing prices in check has emerged as a specialty of sorts for Beijing's one-party regime.

http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy ... and?page=2

Quote:
When the economy started to cool in the beginning of 2016, China opened up the debt spigots again to stimulate the economy. After the failed initiative with the stock market in 2015, Chinese central planners chose residential real estate again.

And it worked. As mortgages made up 40.5 percent of new bank loans in 2016, house prices were rising at more than 10 percent year over year for most of 2016 and the beginning of 2017. Overall, they got so expensive that the average Chinese would have had to spend more than 160 times his annual income to purchase an average housing unit at the end of 2016.

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/2264142 ... -bubble-2/


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Wed Jul 26, 2017 9:50 am 
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Quote:
China will turn all big companies owned by the central government into limited liability firms or joint-stock firms by the end of 2017, as Beijing looks to make its state-owned giants more nimble as part of broader reforms of the capital markets.


http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/26/china-to ... -2017.html

If they allow private capital it might mean the end (or lessening) of forays into foreign real estate by the Chinese masses


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2017 1:33 am 
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Quote:
Home Prices Surge in China's Smaller Cities as Risks Spread

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... bs-persist

Quote:
In Xiamen, the city most at risk of a bubble, investors can expect to wait 100 years to recover their initial investment through rent

http://www.scmp.com/business/china-busi ... r#comments


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Thu Aug 10, 2017 7:22 am 
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Quote:
his week a US hedge fund published a serious warning that China’s economy is incredibly fragile, and could start to collapse within months.

“The timing of the bursting of the Chinese currency and credit bubble is imminent in our view,” wrote Kevin Smith, chief Investment officer of Crescat Capital, and his colleagues, in a note to clients.

“The bust in some form will be triggered by bank runs from the masses of Chinese depositors when they learn that they are the ones holding the bag with respect to China’s insolvent banking system.”

http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/ ... 6fab048fde

Image

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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Fri Aug 11, 2017 6:37 am 
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Chinese top official warns economy ‘kidnapped’ by property bubble https://www.ft.com/content/3bfea8be-7da ... da0bcbc928 via @FT

Quote:
Chinese top official warns economy ‘kidnapped’ by property bubble

Beijing attempts to curb real estate prices as tycoons’ wealth soars


A top Chinese lawmaker has warned that profiteering by real estate developers is sapping the lifeblood from China’s economy, as authorities make efforts to contain runaway property prices.

Strong growth of real estate prices, sales and construction has powered China’s economy this year, putting gross domestic product on the path to its first annual growth acceleration since 2010.

Meanwhile, an index of Hong Kong-listed mainland property shares has risen 68 per cent this year, propelling property tycoons such as Evergrande Group’s Hui Ka Yan up the ranks of China’s rich list, despite his company’s heavy debt load.

But authorities are increasingly concerned that the reliance on property for growth is fuelling financial risk and encouraging speculation rather than investment in the real economy.

“The real estate industry’s excessive prosperity has not only kidnapped local governments but also kidnapped financial institutions — restraining and even harming the development of the real economy, inflating asset bubbles and accumulating debt risk,” Yin Zhongqing, deputy director of the finance and economics committee of the National People’s Congress, said in a speech on Thursday.

“The biggest problem currently facing the country is how to reduce reliance on real estate,” he added.


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 9:22 am 
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Quote:
S&P Lowers China's Rating to A+ From AA-, Says Outlook Stable

S&P Global Ratings cut China’s sovereign credit rating by one step, to A+ from AA-, and revised its outlook to stable from negative.

"China’s prolonged period of strong credit growth has increased its economic and financial risks," the agency said in a statement.
More...


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:53 am 
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I've heard anecdotally that engineers at equivalent pay grades in our company are now paid higher salaries than we are.

Still cheaper than the US though.

_________________
The bust is getting bustier.....


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:51 am 
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Tonnes of very well paid professionals in China. That's where huge investments and the world's biggest market for many industries are after all.
For our American based company it's contributing almost all the revenue and profit growth!


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:21 am 
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Quote:
Outstanding mortgage loans are up 31 percent through June, with medium- and long-term loans to households continuing to rise 2 percent a month. Credit is still growing rapidly; by the end of this year, the ratio of total social financing to nominal GDP is expected to have risen from 169 percent in 2012 to 204 percent.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... -to-change


Quote:
One criticism of the debt-for-equity initiative, which was launched a year ago, is that it keeps afloat struggling enterprises, leaving excess capacity intact and pulling down productivity.

Image
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... t-for-debt


Quote:
China's economic data have been showing robust growth ahead of leadership changes set to happen at the upcoming Party Congress.

But many expect the mainland's economy to slow in the later part of the year due to a crackdown on debt and as the property market cools.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/12/china-r ... -data.html

Quote:
Chen Yuanyuan of the Institute for Advanced Finance at the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics has projected that at its current pace, the ratio of mortgage debt to disposable income will reach 127%, which is equal to the amount held by American households just before the subprime crisis occurred in 2007. Already for some home buyers, monthly payments are greater than current income, which means that people must borrow money in order to keep their homes.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahsu/20 ... 8e2cc545a2


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:38 am 
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Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:

Quote:
Chen Yuanyuan of the Institute for Advanced Finance at the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics has projected that at its current pace, the ratio of mortgage debt to disposable income will reach 127%, which is equal to the amount held by American households just before the subprime crisis occurred in 2007. Already for some home buyers, monthly payments are greater than current income, which means that people must borrow money in order to keep their homes.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahsu/20 ... 8e2cc545a2



:shock:
Another ''soft-landing'' on it's way.


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:47 pm 
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any experts on china?
many property bubbles depend on chinese money (or at the very least a pull back from chinese investors would have an impact), any insights into this ending


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:01 am 
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They've been making it much harder to get money out for last few years.

I don't see any problem with the Chinese economy at present investment still strong from government in research.

Basically I don't see any big cracks but as we all know it's a big complicated place. They have a big govt meeting coming up so never make any big changes before that .


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 6:47 am 
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Quote:
The biggest stock collapse in world history is set to get worse

Ten years after PetroChina peaked on its first day of trading in Shanghai, the state-owned energy producer has lost about $US800 billion ($1.04 trillion) of market value - a sum large enough to buy every listed company in Italy, or circle the Earth 31 times with $US100 bills.

In current dollar terms, it's the world's biggest wipeout of shareholder wealth ever. And it may only get worse. If the average analyst estimate compiled by Bloomberg proves right, PetroChina's Shanghai shares will sink 16 per cent to an all-time low in the next 12 months.

The stock has been pummelled by some of China's biggest economic policy shifts of the past decade, including the government's move away from a commodity-intensive development model and its attempts to clamp down on speculative manias of the sort that turned PetroChina into the world's first trillion-dollar company in 2007.


http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/ ... zamw2.html

Quote:
China Bond Selloff Spreads to Stocks as Deleveraging Risks Mount

Chinese stocks fell the most since early August, breaking the calm that persisted through the recent Communist Party Congress, as government bonds extended a monthly rout amid concern the government will step up efforts to reduce leverage in the financial sector.

The Shanghai Composite Index dropped as much as 1.7 percent on Monday, and was 0.9 percent lower at 2:09 p.m. local time. Small-cap shares bore the brunt of the selling, with the ChiNext gauge tumbling as much as 2.5 percent. Equity indexes in Hong Kong reversed gains. The 10-year yield climbed 10 basis points to 3.94 percent, a three-year high.

While China’s equity market was subdued for most of this month amid state efforts to limit volatility during the twice-a-decade Party gathering, sovereign yields have been climbing. There’s more than 1 trillion yuan ($150 billion) of funding provided by the central bank that matures this week, the most since February.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -continues


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Mon Nov 06, 2017 6:12 am 
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Quote:
Hong Kong shares dropped amid signs of weakness in the city’s property market and concern China will step up a campaign to cut leverage.

The Hang Seng Index fell 0.6 percent to 28,436.67 at the midday break, paring an earlier loss of 1.6 percent. New World Development Co. led a retreat by real estate developers developers after a measure of secondary home prices fell to its lowest level since May. Declines were limited by a rally in AAC Technologies Holdings Inc. shares.

China’s financial system is becoming significantly more vulnerable due to high leverage, according to central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan, who has made a series of blunt warnings in recent weeks about debt levels

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... rs-retreat


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