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 Post subject: Another international comparison of housing costs...
PostPosted: Tue Jan 26, 2016 10:47 pm 
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Posts: 665
The 'Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey 2016' is getting some coverage due to Limerick being crowned the most affordable city across all countries surveyed. Leaving aside the dubious charms of Limerick, the survey looks reasonably interesting. Apart from the fact that it shows how relatively affordable Ireland (even Dublin) is in comparison with Australia, the UK and Asia, it is also interesting in that it views rising house prices as a deep social and economic problem. It also puts the blame firmly on planners:

"Why have ‘house prices’ skyrocketed? While influential bodies in Australia like the Productivity Commission and the Reserve Bank focused their attention on demand drivers like capital gains tax treatment, negative gearing, interest rates, readily accessible finance, first home buyers' grants and high immigration rates, few were looking at the real source of the affordability problem - land supply for new housing stock.

It is undeniable that demand factors played a role in stimulating the housing market and those factors were, for the most part, in the hands of national governments. However, the real culprit, the real source of the problem, was the refusal of local and state governments and their land management agencies to provide an adequate and affordable supply of land for new housing stock to meet demand.

………

It is important to remember that the "scarcity" that drove up land prices is wholly contrived - it is a matter of political choice, not geographic reality. It is the product of restrictions imposed through planning regulation and zoning."

http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf


While this is true, certainly in comparison with most of the US, it only holds if one is willing to build vast, car-dependant suburbs. Land supply in cities is finite (although much could be done to facilitate development in cities, and to prevent landowners and developers making huge windfall gains on land/sites). The author also ignores the fact that a greater proportion of people's income inevitably goes towards housing cost as other items - food, technology etc - have become much cheaper.


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 Post subject: Re: Another international comparison of housing costs...
PostPosted: Fri Feb 26, 2016 9:46 pm 
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Planning Tribunal Attendee

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Posts: 1380
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I read the one from last year.. A lot of data.

_________________
Why it was so windy there?... I am out.

For future reference, a 'soft landing' theorem:
06/2007: Central Bank predicts soft landing for housing
http://www.independent.ie/business/iris ... 96858.html
It's all grand


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 Post subject: Re: Another international comparison of housing costs...
PostPosted: Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:29 pm 
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Posts: 1859
And Waterford is the runner up :)

Hong Kong @ 19 times income is at the other end of the spectrum.


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 Post subject: Re: Another international comparison of housing costs...
PostPosted: Sat Feb 27, 2016 6:22 pm 
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Joined: Jul 31, 2011
Posts: 1380
Location: 0-71
I understand Hong-Kong.. However I wonder how expensive is Shenzhen

_________________
Why it was so windy there?... I am out.

For future reference, a 'soft landing' theorem:
06/2007: Central Bank predicts soft landing for housing
http://www.independent.ie/business/iris ... 96858.html
It's all grand


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 Post subject: Re: Another international comparison of housing costs...
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 6:43 am 
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Posts: 14806
Demographia 2017 http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf

Quote:
The 13th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey covers 406 metropolitan housing markets (metropolitan areas) in nine countries (Australia, Canada, China, Ireland, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, the United Kingdom and the United States) for the third quarter of 2016
  • A total of 92 major metropolitan markets (housing markets) --- with more than 1,000,000 population --- are included, including five megacities (Tokyo-Yokohama, New York, Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto, Los Angeles, and London).
<snip>

3.4 Ireland
For the fourth straight year, Ireland is the most affordable geography in the Survey, with a Median Multiple of 3.4, an affordable rating.

Major Housing Market: Housing affordability continued to decline in Ireland’s only major metropolitan area market, Dublin, where the Median Multiple reached a seriously unaffordable 4.7 in 2016,up from 3.3 in 2011. Dublin could be headed toward the severe unaffordability reached during the housing bust in 2008.

University College economist Colm McCarthy continues to warn that house prices are rising far too rapidly in the Dublin area. He suggests that a new housing “bubble” could be developing despite the market cooling policies of the Central Bank.

Other Housing Markets: Galway (3.4) and Cork (3.5) are moderately unaffordable, while Waterford (2.6) and Limerick (2.3) are rated affordable.

Historical Context: As is indicated in Figure 1, Ireland had a price-to-income multiple of less than 3.0 in the early 1990s


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 Post subject: Re: Another international comparison of housing costs...
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 4:32 pm 
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Joined: Mar 14, 2013
Posts: 1648
BoyRacer wrote:
Demographia 2017 http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf

Quote:
The 13th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey covers 406 metropolitan housing markets (metropolitan areas) in nine countries (Australia, Canada, China, Ireland, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, the United Kingdom and the United States) for the third quarter of 2016
  • A total of 92 major metropolitan markets (housing markets) --- with more than 1,000,000 population --- are included, including five megacities (Tokyo-Yokohama, New York, Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto, Los Angeles, and London).
<snip>

3.4 Ireland
For the fourth straight year, Ireland is the most affordable geography in the Survey, with a Median Multiple of 3.4, an affordable rating.

Major Housing Market: Housing affordability continued to decline in Ireland’s only major metropolitan area market, Dublin, where the Median Multiple reached a seriously unaffordable 4.7 in 2016,up from 3.3 in 2011. Dublin could be headed toward the severe unaffordability reached during the housing bust in 2008.

University College economist Colm McCarthy continues to warn that house prices are rising far too rapidly in the Dublin area. He suggests that a new housing “bubble” could be developing despite the market cooling policies of the Central Bank.

Other Housing Markets: Galway (3.4) and Cork (3.5) are moderately unaffordable, while Waterford (2.6) and Limerick (2.3) are rated affordable.

Historical Context: As is indicated in Figure 1, Ireland had a price-to-income multiple of less than 3.0 in the early 1990s


Its an interesting report, not without its flaws but in general accurate. The scale of houses prices in major cities is off the wall. The market can stay irrational for many years but will eventually regress to the mean

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An increase in the number of paupers does not broaden the market. M. Kalecki


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 Post subject: Re: Another international comparison of housing costs...
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2017 8:20 pm 
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Posts: 1880
Very true.

Ireland does not have a problem with housing affordability. Dublin does.


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 Post subject: Re: Another international comparison of housing costs...
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2017 8:39 pm 
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Joined: Nov 6, 2006
Posts: 8540
Location: Australia
Skippy 3 wrote:
Very true.

Ireland does not have a problem with housing affordability. Dublin does.


The rest of Ireland has an issue with jobs


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 Post subject: Re: Another international comparison of housing costs...
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2017 8:43 pm 
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Posts: 1880
Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
Skippy 3 wrote:
Very true.

Ireland does not have a problem with housing affordability. Dublin does.


The rest of Ireland has an issue with jobs


No more than it ever had.

200k jobs have been added since 2012. Spread reasonably evenly across the country.


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