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 Post subject: Re: The how to turn the country around Thread
PostPosted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 10:33 pm 
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nuts wrote:
We are probably now even in a worse situation than before the boom. Now we have lots of people with huge debts for fast depreciating liabilities like cars and houses etc.
Ireland has nothing to underpin the economy.


So why not liquidate the banks and their bad debts at whatever clearing price we can get and start again with an almost clean sheet? It's not pretty but it beats dragging out a recession for the next decade.

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 Post subject: Re: The how to turn the country around Thread
PostPosted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 10:39 pm 
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Quote:
So why not liquidate the banks and their bad debts at whatever clearing price we can get and start again with an almost clean sheet? It's not pretty but it beats dragging out a recession for the next decade

Even if we could wave a magic wand and banish the debts, what are we going to start with?
We're back to Tourism/Agriculture/Foreign firms.


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 Post subject: Re: The how to turn the country around Thread
PostPosted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 10:59 pm 
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We need to forget abut this fallicy of a knowledge economy. Ireland cannot compete with India and China in the tech arena.

China produces 400,000 engineers every year. I have no idea how many India produces but it is probably similar and their base language is English wihich is a substantial avantage when it comes to programming anyway. We may forget about this much vaunted knowledge economy. We never had one anyway. Just a few multinationals assembling stuff. It could be done anywhere where people are willing to work for the minimum amount of money. That is not a knowlede economy.

I think we need to concenctrate on the following:

1 Food Production/processing/marketing. We need to add more value in this area. We need to get away from raw ingredients game which is low rent and move up to the gourmet game.
2 Green Energy (Wind/Tidal)
3 Exporting building technology & services (Think Kingspan & Coffey Construction)
4 Pharmaceuticals (we seem to be good at that and the margins are huge so costs are not that critical. Also it is hard to move these industries because of regulatory issues with re-validation etc. We have a large amount of people in Ireland with pharma skills and this is a big plus for locating pharma industry here. However cost is still an issue and enough cost will drive them away eventually so this needs to be trimmed.)
5 Water: Water is becoming a very scarce natural resource. I know that we have f__ked up much of our water supplies ove the past few years and that needs to be resolved. However with all the rain that we have and all the rain that we are likely to have as a result of global warming it seems to me that we could kill two birds with one stone and put in rainwater collection systems that collect and store water and at the same time stop all these flooding issues. We could then sell the water to drier parts of europe like spain. Barcelona currently is having water delivered in huge tanker ships daily. We should take advantage of that ready and accessible market.

We also need to reform the public services (fire half of them bsically and cut the pay for the rest by 30% and stop funding their pensions). However I doubt that this will be done as it would be political suicide.

FM


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 Post subject: Re: The how to turn the country around Thread
PostPosted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 11:11 pm 
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Quote:
Even if we could wave a magic wand and banish the debts, what are we going to start with?
We're back to Tourism/Agriculture/Foreign firms.


Would this be so bad as a start? Some industries around these sectors might be natural to the Irish - our food industry could be a world leader but our dedication to food eaten publicly is awful - we're good enough in the home. Couldn't we go for a higher quality of food - organic produce, niche ranges and markets? I think it might be a matter of getting tourists to return and generating new tourist markets here in watersports and cycle lanes -big one proposed from Galway to Clifden along a used railway line - something like this would give depth to our tourist sector - at the moment there's a lot of whirlwind Bunratty Castle, a few pubs in Galway, the Cliffs of Moher (where it costs €8 to park :? )

Are we really worse off than before the boom? I'd nearly think so. Our personal debt is higher, however we do have a lot more infrastructure and an awful lot of houses .. renting is often a big issue for labour movements and maybe there will be a lot more flexibility here with the increased availability of property. But what will people come here to work for? Isn't it the case that, using Maslow's hierarchy of human needs as a model, if you provide for the basic needs then the rest follows more easily? Didn't two kids in Limerick become millionaires by developing a piece of software recently? Home-grown business will naturally arise if the basics are provided for - I'm convinced of it. It might not be super high tech but it'll be what we're good at - whether that's music, art, telling stories or creating fusion power isn't it best to try to provide the environment rather than pushing it?

Changing our attitudes to part-time or casual work might be no harm either - maybe some of us would like to study for half of our lives... is it so impossible in this day and age to do this (and maybe support a family too?)


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 Post subject: Re: The how to turn the country around Thread
PostPosted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 11:19 pm 
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FordsonMajor wrote:
We need to forget abut this fallicy of a knowledge economy. Ireland cannot compete with India and China in the tech arena.

China produces 400,000 engineers every year. I have no idea how many India produces but it is probably similar and their base language is English wihich is a substantial avantage when it comes to programming anyway. We may forget about this much vaunted knowledge economy. We never had one anyway. Just a few multinationals assembling stuff. It could be done anywhere where people are willing to work for the minimum amount of money. That is not a knowlede economy.

I think we need to concenctrate on the following:

1 Food Production/processing/marketing. We need to add more value in this area. We need to get away from raw ingredients game which is low rent and move up to the gourmet game.
2 Green Energy (Wind/Tidal)
3 Exporting building technology & services (Think Kingspan & Coffey Construction)
4 Pharmaceuticals (we seem to be good at that and the margins are huge so costs are not that critical. Also it is hard to move these industries because of regulatory issues with re-validation etc. We have a large amount of people in Ireland with pharma skills and this is a big plus for locating pharma industry here. However cost is still an issue and enough cost will drive them away eventually so this needs to be trimmed.)
5 Water: Water is becoming a very scarce natural resource. I know that we have f__ked up much of our water supplies ove the past few years and that needs to be resolved. However with all the rain that we have and all the rain that we are likely to have as a result of global warming it seems to me that we could kill two birds with one stone and put in rainwater collection systems that collect and store water and at the same time stop all these flooding issues. We could then sell the water to drier parts of europe like spain. Barcelona currently is having water delivered in huge tanker ships daily. We should take advantage of that ready and accessible market.

We also need to reform the public services (fire half of them bsically and cut the pay for the rest by 30% and stop funding their pensions). However I doubt that this will be done as it would be political suicide.

FM


I'd agree that we have to stop deluding ourselves quickly that we have the pricing power to compete with super cheap labour. Once we've digested that fact we examine our options and take it from there.


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 Post subject: Re: The how to turn the country around Thread
PostPosted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 11:25 pm 
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Quote:
Didn't two kids in Limerick become millionaires by developing a piece of software recently?

Are those the lads that had to go to America to be taken seriously because Enterprise Ireland didn't want to know? - Clever kids.


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 Post subject: Re: The how to turn the country around Thread
PostPosted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 11:38 pm 
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Posts: 6034
grumpy wrote:
They might make a profit but are not getting an anyway good return on investment.

The Unwelcome Guest wrote:
They should get out of the Hotel trade then...

grumpy wrote:
Which is where we started. Reduce wages to help the economy.

The Unwelcome Guest wrote:
Hold on, are you saying wages are their only cost??? Let's be realistic here, wages are not directly translated into operating profits. They are part and parcel of doing business and if they have a crap return on investment then these people have gotten their sums badly wrong and shouldn't be in business for themselves.


FFS TUG, economics basics, capital is allocated where it gets a good return. FYI other costs in the hotel trade are largely fixed. You sound like Bertie.

Capital, like Elvis, has pretty much left the building. If the sums have been done wrong, whatever capital if any is left will go elsewhere.

Lot of people are/will be fucked. Competitiveness is key. Free wage levels are necessary.


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 Post subject: Re: The how to turn the country around Thread
PostPosted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 11:40 pm 
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nuts wrote:
Quote:
So why not liquidate the banks and their bad debts at whatever clearing price we can get and start again with an almost clean sheet? It's not pretty but it beats dragging out a recession for the next decade

Even if we could wave a magic wand and banish the debts, what are we going to start with?
We're back to Tourism/Agriculture/Foreign firms.


Tourism/Agriculture/Foreign firms is mostly where we're at in 2008 and they are shackled with with the overheads imposed by servicing the debt leftover from the construction boom, pricing us out of the market and out of work.

Quote:
Ireland's short-term economic outlook thus appears grim and the downturn could possibly in the short term be even worse than in America. However, because the ECB seem determined not to cut interest rates and because Ireland is unlikely to leave the euro area, this means that the problems won't be postponed and aggravated to the same extent as in America. That means that Ireland has a much better chance than America of recovering a sound economy. While for example Thailand and South Korea suffered more severe downturns after the Asian crisis in 1997-98 than Japan did after the bursting of its stock- and real estate bubble in 1990-91, at least they got rid of the excesses and could recover strongly. Japan by contrast kept postponing the problem, preventing any permanent recovery. Ireland is likely to suffer a more severe downturn in the short term, but it will likely soon get rid of the excesses and then return to strong growth, as was the case in Thailand and South Korea. America like Japan, by contrast seem determined to postpone and aggravate the problems, and so make them more permanent.

Ireland Slips Into Recession
http://stefanmikarlsson.blogspot.com/20 ... ssion.html


We don't have the option of inflating our way out of this crisis (It's not a good option anyway, but it is more politically acceptable). The gig is almost up on the corporate tax scam and the East Europeans have settled on a flat tax model, how long more before that leg is pulled from under us?
The Irish banks are clearly the Achilles heal for the Irish economy, with their unserviceable debt weighing us down, either they get recapitalised or they go broke. I am in favour of calling in the receiver, seize their assets (loans) to cover their debts (savings) and put them in a trust so the money can be recovered over time.

So a big reset would restore our competitive advantage, in the above areas and allow us to develop indigenous industry?

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 Post subject: Re: The how to turn the country around Thread
PostPosted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 11:42 pm 
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grumpy wrote:
grumpy wrote:
They might make a profit but are not getting an anyway good return on investment.

The Unwelcome Guest wrote:
They should get out of the Hotel trade then...

grumpy wrote:
Which is where we started. Reduce wages to help the economy.

The Unwelcome Guest wrote:
Hold on, are you saying wages are their only cost??? Let's be realistic here, wages are not directly translated into operating profits. They are part and parcel of doing business and if they have a crap return on investment then these people have gotten their sums badly wrong and shouldn't be in business for themselves.


FFS TUG, economics basics, capital is allocated where it gets a good return.


Eh, check what you've just said, you're not making sense...

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 Post subject: Re: The how to turn the country around Thread
PostPosted: Sat Sep 27, 2008 12:32 am 
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Joined: Jun 24, 2008
Posts: 329
Economic and fiscal strategy
- Pay freeze for the public sector
- Convert all public sector pensions to defined contribution
- Massive investment in offshore wind parks
- Undersea gas and electricity connections direct to France.
- Sell water to countries like Morocco and Spain.
- leave the tax system alone, its better than any other country I know of.


Social strategy
- Ban advertising of alcohol. Less binge drinkers means improved quality of life. Already implemented in France.
- Constitutional amendment to the right to defend yourself from criminals. Already implemented in USA.
- Prison and justice system to be revenue neutral. Convicts pay the cost of incarceration thru work programs.
- National Dail seats to represent national issues. Already implemented in New Zealand.

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 Post subject: Re: The how to turn the country around Thread
PostPosted: Sat Sep 27, 2008 11:37 am 
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Location: Over Macho Grande? I don't think I'll ever be over Macho Grande...
Mercantilist wrote:
Economic and fiscal strategy
- Pay freeze for the public sector
- Convert all public sector pensions to defined contribution
- Massive investment in offshore wind parks
- Undersea gas and electricity connections direct to France.
- Sell water to countries like Morocco and Spain.
- leave the tax system alone, its better than any other country I know of.


Social strategy
- Ban advertising of alcohol. Less binge drinkers means improved quality of life. Already implemented in France.
- Constitutional amendment to the right to defend yourself from criminals. Already implemented in USA.
- Prison and justice system to be revenue neutral. Convicts pay the cost of incarceration thru work programs.
- National Dail seats to represent national issues. Already implemented in New Zealand.


Can we get looser handgun laws while we're at it???

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 Post subject: Re: The how to turn the country around Thread
PostPosted: Sat Sep 27, 2008 12:00 pm 
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The Unwelcome Guest wrote:
Can we get looser handgun laws while we're at it???
Like in Seattle you mean, where youre so desperate to move to because you hate yourself and you hate where youre from.
The Unwelcome Guest wrote:
If I got the offer for NZ or Canada or maybe Seattle in the morning, straight swap, you wouldn't see me for dust...


No I dont think liberal handgun laws in Ireland would work, people couldnt handle that kind of responsibility.

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 Post subject: Re: The how to turn the country around Thread
PostPosted: Sat Sep 27, 2008 1:51 pm 
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Mercantilist wrote:
The Unwelcome Guest wrote:
Can we get looser handgun laws while we're at it???


Like in Seattle you mean, where youre so desperate to move to because you hate yourself and you hate where youre from.


:roll:

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 Post subject: Re: The how to turn the country around Thread
PostPosted: Sat Sep 27, 2008 2:08 pm 
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The Unwelcome Guest wrote:
Mercantilist wrote:
The Unwelcome Guest wrote:
Can we get looser handgun laws while we're at it???
Like in Seattle you mean, where youre so desperate to move to because you hate yourself and you hate where youre from.
:roll:
You were sarcastic and I responded. What did you expect.

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 Post subject: Re: The how to turn the country around Thread
PostPosted: Sat Sep 27, 2008 4:48 pm 
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Mercantilist wrote:
You were sarcastic and I responded. What did you expect.


Mercantilist, I couldn't possibly be bothered dealing with you from here on in. To be honest, I've been one of the lone voices in the moderation team that has been pleading your case behind closed doors and if you think what you've posted just there is reasonable then it's small wonder you're taking up such a lot of the moderating team's time.

Please return to on topic comments.

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