Not meaning to be facetious, but could we have a #4? Which would be something like: Europe stays bad, and Ireland gets even worse.
Honestly, that would be my prediction. I don't believe we have suffered the requisite drop in our standard of living yet to match the (future/present) wealth we've destroyed.
This is the most likely scenario. We know how correct the ERSI 5 years prediction was in 2008.
The next most likely scenario is #5 is that Europe gets a lot worse - and the free money for Ireland disappears. The structural issues of the Euro have not been dealt with and the political situation is utterly toxic. This an unusually quiet period with everything on hold until after the German elections. Hollande is hoping that the SPD's wins and Steinbrück will be more amenable than Merkel but he will soon discover that Steinbrück is little different from Merkel. And then the fur will fly.
The Berlin / Paris axis is completely dead and that was the only thing that kept the euro politically viable till now. The last few months both the Bundesbank and the Bercy Fortress have been taking public potshots at each other, limbering up for a real fight. In wars like this I'd put my money on the French finance ministry coming out on top. Which will mean a real change in the configuration of the euro. Long term this would be very good for Ireland (and the rest), short term it will be a "credit event" with really severe pain.
Either way the flow of free money to Ireland (almost 10% of GNP p.a) will end sooner or later and then the real austerity will start. Its still 1979 five years after the collapse. Pure groundhog day. The problems remain the same. As do the solutions. But no meaningful steps have been yet to be taken to start filling in the hole. You'll know when it starts because that is when people will start spilling on to the streets. Demanding that their free money goodies continue. When you strip away the MNC charade Ireland is basically Portugal, but a Portugal that thinks it can afford both a Norwegian standard of living as well as a Norwegian cost of living. Pure cargo cult thinking. All cargo cults like this eventually collapse.
The ERIS report is pure wishful things. Based on the last time around when it took 8 years for the country to face up to a far more trivial situation I'd expect it to be sometime in the 2020's before the serious structural changes are made that are needed to build a real recovery. Assuming the country has the luxury of not having an external catastrophic event forcing the situation.
Ireland remains just one major international crisis away from living on fumes within a few months. The current kitty that the DoF squirreled away last year will be all used up in 12 to 18 months. Assuming that another Anglo or AIB "situation" has not blown it all first.