The real 'black swan' that would dramatically affect all Irish property.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11630468/France-and-Germany-behind-plans-for-common-EU-corporation-tax.html
Three are two parts to this:
1. Ireland's tax rate is not really the issue. France has an equally low effective rate of tax for US multinationals etc. The issue is that the Irish Revenue allow multinationals to pay 0% tax by allowing their revenues stay in the Irish system (and thus artificially inflate Irish GDP) while the cash goes the Cayman Islands etc. U.S. Multinationals are using Ireland to pay 0% tax on all European revenues. That is what France and Germany have realised and want stopped.
2. Dublin commercial real estate pricing is dependent of U.S. Multinationals. Over 80-85% of the true net take up of Dublin office (take out the lease rollovers Irish agents deliberately mix in) are dot.com firms, locating to pay 0% tax. They pay high rents at c. 50 per sq ft (the tax savings are 1000x the rent costs so they don't care). At 50 per sq ft that equates to 1,000 sq ft in capital value. That is 5x the all in cost of build. Almost no cities (capital or otherwise) in EMEA outside of London, Paris and Zurich, sell for much over 3x cost of build (600-700 sq ft). That is why when Irish office weakens, it collapses.
The Euro Project is remarkably open and liberal (as the UK is discovering re immigration). The sense check, from a financial side, was that regardless of tax strategy, the net benefit would stay in Europe. Ireland, Lux and Holland however are "backdoors" for U.S. multinationals to extract revenues gross out of the EU system. There are no programmers (or many real scientists in Ireland). The jobs needed to fulfil the "backdoor" tax plans created by KPMG and PWC etc are cheaper - call centre / lower marketing and sales roles. Europe is loosing the taxation and higher quality jobs.
France and Germany know this however changing tax rules are very tricky under EU rules. The U.K.s desire to resolve some of its immigration problems could see a "grand bargain" where compromises are made to close these "backdoors". It is one of those "slow burn" background things - but, we could wake up one day to find U.S. Multinationals gone.
Our GDP would fall by about c 20% (that is how artificial their effect on our GDP and even GNP is), and Dublin Office would fall by at minimum 50% (and more given most U.S. Multinationals have 3/5 year breaks on their leases and would dump).
Your post is a huge generalisation and parts are quite inaccurate."There are no programmers (or many real scientists in Ireland)".
Really? There are thousands of IT developers/data scientists/ researchers/IT managers/testers/analysts/IT support people etc. working in Ireland for US companies such as IBM, Oracle, HP, Intel, Facebook, Microsoft, Dell etc. etc. As well as thousands more working in IT for native Irish companies and non-US companies (for instance there are probably more than 1,000 people working in IT in Ireland for Accenture and Deloitte alone, doing real IT consulting and development, IT support or IT infrastructure work for real clients here). Some IT staff for the multinationals work on product development (some of which may be localisation but not all by any means) and many work on development and support for local as well as international customers. Developers travel here from all over Europe, from India and recently from South America because there are better career opportunites in IT here than in many larger countries like Spain, Italy or Brazil.
I used to work in IT and I know this directly. If you don't take my word for this all you have to do is buy a premium account on Linkedin and do a search by location, company and function. Or look at job ads. For instance almost 3000 job ads in IT in Ireland are currently advertised on one job site IrishJobs.ie
Some of the newer company arrivals to Ireland may pull out if corporation tax changes here but some leave anyway as their business model changes or as their fortunes wax and wane. And others take their place over time as long as other attractions here remain which have made Ireland a centre for IT development (by the way well done IDA and other parties responsible for this down the years - credit where credit's due).