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Predictions Please
Japan Style damage 35%  35%  [ 64 ]
England 1989- Damage 24%  24%  [ 43 ]
Less than England 5%  5%  [ 9 ]
Worse than Japan 36%  36%  [ 65 ]
Total votes : 181
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 Post subject: Re: The Best and Worst Case Scenarios - Your predictions here
PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2009 1:15 pm 
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When I saw the SocGen in the headline, I was expecting to be able to say "Albert Edwards, nuff said", but it is not he. I wouldn't necessarily shoot the messenger on this one. SocGen are the biggest recipients of AIG payouts having hedged their risk and they seem to be on the ball so far (past performance...).

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 Post subject: Re: The Best and Worst Case Scenarios - Your predictions here
PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2009 1:16 pm 
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Posts: 648
The Unwelcome Guest wrote:
Von Mises, nuff said.


For you maybe.


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 Post subject: Re: The Best and Worst Case Scenarios - Your predictions here
PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2009 1:20 pm 
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Location: Over Macho Grande? I don't think I'll ever be over Macho Grande...
yoganmahew wrote:
SocGen are the biggest recipients of AIG payouts having hedged their risk and they seem to be on the ball so far (past performance...).


Didn't they lose 7bn with that trader.

Either way, they produced three scenarios and AEP has editorialised appropriately.

And @wttw, definitely.

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 Post subject: Re: The Best and Worst Case Scenarios - Your predictions here
PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2009 3:37 pm 
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Too Big to Fail

Joined: Feb 21, 2008
Posts: 3877
yoganmahew wrote:
When I saw the SocGen in the headline, I was expecting to be able to say "Albert Edwards, nuff said", but it is not he. I wouldn't necessarily shoot the messenger on this one. SocGen are the biggest recipients of AIG payouts having hedged their risk and they seem to be on the ball so far (past performance...).


Here is the Soc Gen report

http://www.scribd.com/doc/22756491/SocGen-Worst-Case-Debt-Scenario

Lots of scary chart porn


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 Post subject: Re: The Best and Worst Case Scenarios - Your predictions here
PostPosted: Mon Feb 01, 2010 7:01 pm 
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Absolutely worst case scenario is being played out right now.
Current best case scenario at this point is the ECB and Feb printing money and creating enough inflation so that we can pull off the bank and mortgage holder bailout.

Second best scenario at this stage would be a sovereign default

Worst case scenario would be stagnation for the next 10 years not going bankrupt just always on the edge.

Of course whether you believe we need to learn harsh lessons or not means you could swap the places of best and 2nd best scenarios. The danger is we could not learn a thing. Clearly 99% havent learnt a thing.


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 Post subject: Re: The Best and Worst Case Scenarios - Your predictions here
PostPosted: Sun Mar 07, 2010 11:03 am 
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http://www.columbia.edu/~xs23/papers/pd ... _VX3.2.pdf

Quote:
African Poverty is Falling...Much Faster than You Think!
Maxim Pinkovskiy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Xavier Sala‐i‐Martin, Columbia University and NBER1
Jan 17th, 2010


Best case scenario - Developing countries grow and create new markets for western services. Somewhere we can invest our money in for retirement with real returns.........we can hope!


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 Post subject: Re: The Best and Worst Case Scenarios - Your predictions her
PostPosted: Fri Nov 19, 2010 6:58 pm 
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New Worst Case scenario :)
I am gonna do my absolute worst here :D

Ireland refuses to pay debts.....Expelled from EU & EMU
Trade Embargo
UK adopts low corporation tax and multinationals leave
New currency worthless
Irish Assets frozen
jobs non existent

now for the twist......
UK hands back 6 counties and violence restarts


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 Post subject: Re: The Best and Worst Case Scenarios - Your predictions her
PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2011 7:39 pm 
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Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
New Worst Case scenario :)
I am gonna do my absolute worst here :D

Ireland refuses to pay debts.....Expelled from EU & EMU
Trade Embargo
UK adopts low corporation tax and multinationals leave
New currency worthless
Irish Assets frozen
jobs non existent

now for the twist......
UK hands back 6 counties and violence restarts


Finally Ireland is nuked by Credit Suisse subs pour encourager les autres.


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 Post subject: Re: The Best and Worst Case Scenarios - Your predictions her
PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2011 8:38 pm 
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ditch dweller wrote:
Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
New Worst Case scenario :)
I am gonna do my absolute worst here :D

Ireland refuses to pay debts.....Expelled from EU & EMU
Trade Embargo
UK adopts low corporation tax and multinationals leave
New currency worthless
Irish Assets frozen
jobs non existent

now for the twist......
UK hands back 6 counties and violence restarts


Finally Ireland is nuked by Credit Suisse subs pour encourager les autres.


Finally finally, oil is discovered in Dublin bay and things are looking up for once. Over-enthusiastic horizontal drilling unzips Ireland from the continental shelf and it slips under the waves en route to the abyssal plain.

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