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Predictions Please
Japan Style damage 35%  35%  [ 64 ]
England 1989- Damage 24%  24%  [ 43 ]
Less than England 5%  5%  [ 9 ]
Worse than Japan 36%  36%  [ 65 ]
Total votes : 181
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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 6:06 pm 
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worst case:
the property economy is dead and will not get a resurrection until there is a practical demand to tear down the crap and replace it with good quality.

wage increases will cease for a decade.

unemployment will stay stuck at around 7-8% for a decade, a lot of retraining for ex-construction.

parts of ireland will become blackspots, ghost estates will become dangerous places to be around.

loneliness will become a greater health problem in the next decade.

for the better:
ireland to be become more accepting of european style renting if it allows them to build up good savings.

jobs created will be sustainable. much more investment in tech.

peoples understanding of irish politics and what to expect will be greatly enhanced.

people who previous spent their lives with their heads stuck in the property pages might actually get stuck into community building.

hopefully i will not as reliant on the internet for sane and rational debate.

actually if the level of debate and information dessimination on this site is anything to go by then i have a lot more hope for the future.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 1:35 pm 
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Cactus Flower wrote:
Sidewinder wrote:
Still in opening skirmish mode, yeah.

It's back the 80s all the way for me now. I can't see any way to stop the slide. The entire political class seem to be oblivious to the problem so nobody is even thinking about doing something; the entire country is still floating on an ocean of spin, waffle and denial; and the only sector of the economy that looks like making money over the next 2-3 years is agriculture!

How the hell did we find ourselves in such a position? Oh yeah, we put Ahern in charge :roll:


Its a bit more than that I think. We've been reminded we're one of the world's most open economies for the last ten years. We had a chunk of inward foreign investment in the 1990s and early 2000s that gave money to buy houses at the same time as boosting population - less outward migration and more inward - just as the baby boom generation was ready to be lured into the housing market. There was need to boost housing production - it was done but to a poor building standard that is going to cost a fortune to heat.

The economy overheated very quickly and by 2002 our competitivity and export performance started to slide. Government used up the profits of the real boom to generate a fake one based on construction and public service jobs expansion.

At this stage, to make sure that construction warmed up from overheating to incineration levels they threw in tax cuts (more money), tax incentives for building, a massive road building programme all of which fuelled building cost inflation. House price inflation was boosted by development contributions for infrastructure and other tax and most importantly by a long period of low interest rates held by the ECB because of the stagnant German economy. Half of the cost of a house was going straight to the government who recycled the loot as public sector wages and vanity projects. The two things most important to their "knowledge-based economy" - third level and broadband - were starved of resources.

As supply overtook market demand in 2006 -7 the Banks sold off their own property portfolio and leased. That didn't stop them lending on the back of overvalued property securities. Were there bonuses involved? Were there F!

With our economy having moved from one of the most to one of the least competitive in Europe in less than 10 years, the well paid jobs began to pack up and leave.

The US recession hit bank's liquidity, oversupply and slacking demand with fears of unemployment pushed prices into a steep slide. The German economy has sparked up and interest rates will be high for as long as the Germans have any fear of inflation. Trichet told us last week to F off with our basket case economy and take the pain. Construction jobs are evaporating and manufacturing going to Poland or contracting because of the US and UK recession. Options for emigration are poor.Retail business is down to the level of 21 years ago.


Even if anyone was buying houses half the country has not sewerage capacity left and can't be built on. A sizeable slice of the population even in the boom couldn't afford to buy and very little social housing was built. The waiting lists are enormous.

There is a real danger of a collapse of Irish banking, with the Irish government not allowed to bail out without the OK of the ECB.
Bank Santander - Parisbas or whatever in Ennis High Street in five years any bets?

Unlike the 1980s, we have the gathering together of spiralling construction and non-construction unemployment, rising interest rates, liquidity crisis with end-of-oil petrol and food inflation. Personal debt is much higher than in the 80s.

Your worst case scenarios look rosy to me.:D


Possibly the most comprehensively bearish first post ever.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 7:26 pm 
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I was informed by a friend today that a friend of theirs in Germany was buying an apartment for 8K... a glimpse to our future?

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 7:33 pm 
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Open Window wrote:
I was informed by a friend today that a friend of theirs in Germany was buying an apartment for 8K... a glimpse to our future?

Ah, but they're pobably paying with German euro notes :?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 7:56 pm 
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Open Window wrote:
I was informed by a friend today that a friend of theirs in Germany was buying an apartment for 8K... a glimpse to our future?


ye flippin what Ted!!!!!!!!!


where's me credit card

i' ll go and live there

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 8:27 pm 
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Quote:
WE seem to have been walking around with blinkers for the last few years. By the end of this year, the average household will be borrowing way more than it is earning -- €158 for every €100 earned, according to Goodbody Stockbrokers. This is a far cry from the shrewd days of 1995, where we borrowed about €50 for every €100 earned.

And our heavy indebtedness has finally come home to roost, thanks to soaring unemployment, higher mortgage interest rates, rising food and fuel bills, and the dreaded R- word. Almost €200m worth of unpaid debts was pursued through the courts over the last year -- twice as much as in 2003.
>>>>

Personal debt is strangling us
http://www.independent.ie/business/iris ... 28468.html

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 8:57 pm 
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Green Bear wrote:
Quote:
WE seem to have been walking around with blinkers for the last few years. By the end of this year, the average household will be borrowing way more than it is earning -- €158 for every €100 earned, according to Goodbody Stockbrokers. This is a far cry from the shrewd days of 1995, where we borrowed about €50 for every €100 earned.

And our heavy indebtedness has finally come home to roost, thanks to soaring unemployment, higher mortgage interest rates, rising food and fuel bills, and the dreaded R- word. Almost €200m worth of unpaid debts was pursued through the courts over the last year -- twice as much as in 2003.
>>>>

Personal debt is strangling us
http://www.independent.ie/business/iris ... 28468.html


That's some article... I get to now revise my oft quoted statistic of for every €1 earned, we've borrowed €1.20 significantly upwards... And that's not a good thing! :shock:

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 9:06 pm 
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The Unwelcome Guest wrote:
That's some article... I get to now revise my oft quoted statistic of for every €1 earned, we've borrowed €1.20 significantly upwards... And that's not a good thing! :shock:

Scare yourself a little further.

What proportion of the population has no debt at all? Some (many?) 'pinsters, a few people I know (in my small circle). Maybe a third of the population?

Your 1.58 has just become 2 euro for those who are in debt.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 8:56 am 
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yoganmahew wrote:
The Unwelcome Guest wrote:
That's some article... I get to now revise my oft quoted statistic of for every €1 earned, we've borrowed €1.20 significantly upwards... And that's not a good thing! :shock:

Scare yourself a little further.

What proportion of the population has no debt at all? Some (many?) 'pinsters, a few people I know (in my small circle). Maybe a third of the population?

Your 1.58 has just become 2 euro for those who are in debt.


I know very few people who are debt free, I am lucky enough to be in a position to clear any small borrowing I have from funds available to me on deposit. I know quite a lot of people who are up to their neck in debt as a result of reckless spending and see more through work very regularly. I am constantly surprised by how much debt people can rack up buying needless junk and holidays and they will only stop when the card is refused (I think the banks know this to some degree and are waitng on the hard landing from this as well).

I also used to think that the majority of people who are debt free and money in the bank would be the retired variety and it sstill true but have found very often even these people have taken on debt to sponsor gift deposits for property or signed on the dotted line as guarantor only to find their kids have lost the job or interest rate re-sets are forcing them to subsidise further the ill-advised purchase of a shoebox 3 or 4 years ago.

So there is I dont think anyone portion of society free from debt just various shades of red running through all areas.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 7:44 am 
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From recently published FT data, Ireland inflation adjusted new home prices with projections based on inflation adjusted corrections in Japan and the UK. Interesting how the UK bubble came back so soon. DOnie Cassidys prediction seems hopeful.

Think I have to agree with Cactus Flower when he said

Quote:
Your worst case scenarios look rosy to me. :D


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 Post subject: Re: The Best and Worst Case Scenarios - Your predictions here
PostPosted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 7:35 pm 
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Some US multinationals pull out. Not all.

Unemployment of 10-15% could easily happen. I tend to agree with Kerrynorth on the 15%.

Not 100% convinced on emmigration matching the 1950s levels as today you need a green card or qualifications and experience to go to those places. Europe - Im not sure, the language barrier, we will see how mobile the Irish are. But 1980s levels could be seen.

Population, as per 2Packs predictions a long long long time ago, of sub 4 million. Some disagreed with him at the time. Seems like a natural progression now.

And my pet problem - PENSIONS :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock:
dear God our pensions..........


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 Post subject: Re: The Best and Worst Case Scenarios - Your predictions here
PostPosted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 8:48 pm 
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We will get booted out of the EU soon. According to the Sunday paper (Indo I think), Brian wants to borrow bunches of money to shore up the economy, far more than the EU would like. This coupled with Lisbon 'No' vote surely must mean the boot from Brussels?

Remember, that all Ireland has left is Tourism/Agriculture/Foreign firms.


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 Post subject: Re: The Best and Worst Case Scenarios - Your predictions here
PostPosted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 5:55 pm 
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There is no process for booting us out, all attempts by any group, even if it had the undivided support from all other states, would be illegal. They're stuck with us for as long as we want them to be, with one exception:

they could, if they wanted to, each withdraw from the EU en masse, then set up a new EU sans us, leaving only us out.

That, I think, would require an incredible amount of trust between the other members. If one of them broke ranks...

End of the day, most Eurozone governments will borrow many multiples of what we will. The borrowing of the city of Paris will interest them far more than our deeds.


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 Post subject: Re: The Best and Worst Case Scenarios - Your predictions here
PostPosted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 6:31 pm 
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Interesting that the "hope" is that things in Ireland only get as bad as has been seen following down turns in the established, diverse, significantly larger and stronger economies of the UK or Japan.

By many metrics, Ireland is only a step away from being a third world country, not a world economic power like Japan or the UK.

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 Post subject: Re: The Best and Worst Case Scenarios - Your predictions here
PostPosted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 5:50 pm 
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rock3r wrote:
There is no process for booting us out, all attempts by any group, even if it had the undivided support from all other states, would be illegal. They're stuck with us for as long as we want them to be, with one exception:

they could, if they wanted to, each withdraw from the EU en masse, then set up a new EU sans us, leaving only us out.

That, I think, would require an incredible amount of trust between the other members. If one of them broke ranks...

They could withdraw from the EU and set up EUv2 in a single piece of legislation which was only active when they all (excluding Ireland) passed it. Then again, they might take the chance to drop-kick the UK while they're at it :)

Maybe they'd allow them (and maybe us) back in with much less influence than before, after a while, when lisbon and more are done and dusted.


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