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Predictions Please
Japan Style damage 35%  35%  [ 64 ]
England 1989- Damage 24%  24%  [ 43 ]
Less than England 5%  5%  [ 9 ]
Worse than Japan 36%  36%  [ 65 ]
Total votes : 181
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 Post subject: Best and Worst Case Secnarios for the Govt Guarantee?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 2:52 pm 
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Since the bill has been passed:
Quote:
The Seanad passed the emergency legislation giving effect to the €400bn Government guarantee to financial institutions by 39 votes to 5 at about 7.40am this morning.
The Dáil sat until after 2am to debate the legislation, finally backing it by 124 votes to 18, with only Labour opposed.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/1002/economy.html

Best and Worst Case Secnarios for the Govt Guarantee?
Masterstroke?
Ruination of the nation?


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 Post subject: Re: Best and Worst Case Secnarios for the Govt Guarantee?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 2:57 pm 
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What scares me is how little comprehension people have of the figures involved. I understand that the state has been put on the line (like going all in in poker with a strong but not perfect hand) and feel I have a good handle on the potential costs. Talk to people about worst case scenarios though and they start asking questions like "do you think it'll mean an increase in income tax" or "we'll be paying increased bank charges". Worst case scenario and income tax doubles and the IMF is called in.

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 Post subject: Re: Best and Worst Case Secnarios for the Govt Guarantee?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 3:13 pm 
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On the positive side, it makes the budget deficit look tiny.

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 Post subject: Re: Best and Worst Case Secnarios for the Govt Guarantee?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 11:38 pm 
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Worst case scenario:

Regulator, Banks and Govt believe their own spin that its not our fault
End result: Ireland set back for 15-20 years.
IMF comes in.
Ireland gets kicked out of Europe.
Unemployment are stratospheric levels.
Population decrease and emigration.
Pensions - forget them.


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 Post subject: Re: Best and Worst Case Secnarios for the Govt Guarantee?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 11:41 pm 
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Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
Worst case scenario:

Regulator, Banks and Govt believe their own spin that its not our fault
End result: Ireland set back for 15-20 years.
IMF comes in.
Ireland gets kicked out of Europe.
Unemployment are stratospheric levels.
Population decrease and emigration.
Pensions - forget them.



The fact that this is a realistic scenario is deeply disturbing


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 Post subject: Re: Best and Worst Case Secnarios for the Govt Guarantee?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 11:45 pm 
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Dreaded_Estate wrote:
Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
Worst case scenario:

Regulator, Banks and Govt believe their own spin that its not our fault
End result: Ireland set back for 15-20 years.
IMF comes in.
Ireland gets kicked out of Europe.
Unemployment are stratospheric levels.
Population decrease and emigration.
Pensions - forget them.



The fact that this is a realistic scenario is deeply disturbing


The IMF is the only unrealistic part...

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 Post subject: Re: Best and Worst Case Secnarios for the Govt Guarantee?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 11:45 pm 
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Best Case scenario:

Europe bails us out.
Ireland culls bad bank execs, regulators. Improves banking practices, political ties get investigated.
Ireland gets on track to sorting out its other economic problems.


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 Post subject: Re: Best and Worst Case Secnarios for the Govt Guarantee?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 11:48 pm 
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The Unwelcome Guest wrote:
Dreaded_Estate wrote:
Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
Worst case scenario:

Regulator, Banks and Govt believe their own spin that its not our fault
End result: Ireland set back for 15-20 years.
IMF comes in.
Ireland gets kicked out of Europe.
Unemployment are stratospheric levels.
Population decrease and emigration.
Pensions - forget them.



The fact that this is a realistic scenario is deeply disturbing


The IMF is the only unrealistic part...


how about "Bono meets world leaders in bid to slash Irelands debt"


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 Post subject: Re: Best and Worst Case Secnarios for the Govt Guarantee?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 11:51 pm 
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Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
how about "Bono meets world leaders in bid to slash Irelands debt"


How about a tax on Irish citizens...

WORLDWIDE!!! :twisted:

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 Post subject: Re: The Best and Worst Case Scenarios - Your predictions here
PostPosted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 5:00 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: The Best and Worst Case Scenarios - Your predictions here
PostPosted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 5:28 pm 
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Was talking to a Finnish colleague at work about his experiences from their bubble.

Said things were pretty normal for quite a while but by the time unemployment hit 20% it was just misery.
Shops with empty shelves and massive queues for bread each day.

Thankfully, we've had no bubble and our banks are ok.
I'd be worried otherwise XX

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 Post subject: Re: The Best and Worst Case Scenarios - Your predictions here
PostPosted: Mon Oct 20, 2008 8:02 pm 
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markf909 wrote:
Was talking to a Finnish colleague at work about his experiences from their bubble.

Said things were pretty normal for quite a while but by the time unemployment hit 20% it was just misery.
Shops with empty shelves and massive queues for bread each day.

Thankfully, we've had no bubble and our banks are ok.
I'd be worried otherwise XX


jaysus

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 Post subject: Re: Best and Worst Case Secnarios for the Govt Guarantee?
PostPosted: Mon Nov 16, 2009 6:47 pm 
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The Unwelcome Guest wrote:
Dreaded_Estate wrote:
Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
Worst case scenario:

Regulator, Banks and Govt believe their own spin that its not our fault
End result: Ireland set back for 15-20 years.
IMF comes in.
Ireland gets kicked out of Europe.
Unemployment are stratospheric levels.
Population decrease and emigration.
Pensions - forget them.



The fact that this is a realistic scenario is deeply disturbing


The IMF is the only unrealistic part...


Not if we get kicked out of Europe :D
Time to update our best and worst case scenarios now!

Default after a failure to rectify the deficit
Im changing my worst case scenario unemployment rate from 10-15% to a 25% government figure at peak to come in the event of default. Seeing as we are at 12%+ our previous estimates were not bad at all.
Some multinationals leave
Unstoppable bank failures
25%+ still Vote FF


Alternative worst case scenario :D I now have two competing scenarios for worst place
Cuts are made in budget but not the entire amount.
Deficit increases over the years
Unemployment peaking somewhere 15-20%
Massive taxes
Harmonization of EU taxes as part of an EU bailout
Some but multinationals leave

Best Case Scenario

Default now(see above for drawbacks :D) or
Massive budget cuts 8 billion+ this year or cull almost all quangos 20 billion +
EU aid
Work Programmes

Or
.
.
.
Revolution.....but by a group of people who come from different places on the political spectrum ;) and are united only in their hatred of corruption. Some of these wonderful people ...cough cough.... then go on to form the basis of the new political system forming their own parties.

However, because of their friendly relationships they soon become just as rotten as the previous crowd and go on to be themselves culled :o


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 Post subject: Re: The Best and Worst Case Scenarios - Your predictions here
PostPosted: Mon Nov 16, 2009 8:58 pm 
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BB,

With the greatest amount of respect. Do you actually think that is likely to happen or you think the government simply want you think thats going to happen?
My belief is that the government is drumming up negative sentiment. FF don't care if people are pissed off with them. They simply want people to leave Ireland. The unemployed, recent graduates, the disgruntled. 200 or 300 hundred thousand liabilities off their balance sheets if possible. Good old 1980's subversion via the media.


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 Post subject: Re: The Best and Worst Case Scenarios - Your predictions here
PostPosted: Tue Nov 17, 2009 2:32 am 
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Thinking about the worst case scenario has been distracting me constantly for the last few months, to the detriment of my daily work. It has been, for me, the realisation of the apocryphal Chinese proverb, "May you live in Interesting times."
My stomach has been rolling, trying to figure what the options are for us, and I don't mean Irish people, I mean, all of us.
And my thoughts have been leaning in an apocalyptic direction. In his book, Collapse: How societies choose to fail or survive, Jared Diamond outlines the results of resource exhaustion and overpopulation on a series of isolated societies through history. Most disappeared remarkably quickly.
When you look at almost every aspect of modern society, we are doing things fatally wrong.

The Economy:
The markets which we are most concerned with, the US and UK, are self-destructing. Keeping an eye on the business news every day does nothing but instil and renew a sense of fearful anticipation, for the coming crash. I think it almost goes without saying, the money will run out, and there will be a reckoning. These things are never pleasant, and the corrections we have coming in our direction - in the direction of the western world - are not going to be pleasant. And the correction doesn't just refer to simple economic markers like the Dow or the Hang Seng.
I don't think this will have a fallout limited to the western world, either. The other sides of the economic coin have been mimicking our "successful" model for the last forty years, and are "slouching toward bethlehem" in our company.
I don't want to be the dark pessimist, sitting in the corner, but I really fail to see any chinks of light. The American response to the crisis has been to dig a larger hole, a much larger hole than has been dug by any economy since Lloyd's first set up a coffee house in London, and modern economies began to emerge. Likewise Britain, and the ECB has been fluttering around, approving weakly of profanities like NAMA. We are not the only economy sitting on a bomb with a smouldering fuse. Greece, Spain, Italy, all of the Southern Baltic region, and the UK; all of these countries have much to fear in the coming years, and there are surely many candidates absent from my list because of my ignorance, not because they have healthier economies than those I have included.

Resources and Famines:
This might seem somewhat off topic for a website concerned with the irish property market, but topics here have been wideranging enough in the past, and world events will certainly have an enormous effect on our market too.
When I observe the waste of resources occurring all over the planet, and the accelerating development of this wastage, it rings a big bell in my head, a bell installed after the reading of Mr Diamond's book, and others on similar subjects. There will be an enforced correction of the way we live, the way we heat our houses, the way we fly our lettuce from Israel, and import drinking water from France and Fiji. It would be nice to think that this could last forever, but it cannot. Make a simple extrapolation of our usage of resources, and our growth of population, and it is rapidly becomes clear that we are not going to be able to stay on this path. An infrastructure is hard to build, easy to take for granted, and very easy to destroy. But very very difficult to replace from smoking ruins. Which leads me to my next thoughts.

War:
The traditional response to situations like this was a good old war, cull the population, steal the resources of another country, and thus stave off the collapse for a little while. Or lose the war, and have them take the resources. Either way, someone won, the pressure is released.
The little wars going on now are minor skirmishes relative to those in the first half of the 20th century, and yet they are stretching the might of the American military to breaking point. In the event of a major conflict, what could they be reasonably expected to do? Withdraw back to their own shores, and turn off the radios perhaps? But where would they source the commodities they have been gorging on since the turn of the last century? Or would they have to resort to threats of a less conventional type of warfare?
And what then?

Salvation?
Science is feted as being our saviour, and it would be. If scientists had any power. The scientific method applied to the world's problems would solve them in a matter of decades. If every nation in the world ceded power to these fictional scientists, absolute power, and if they could be trusted with that power. And if there were enough scientists in the world.
Nations will not cede one iota of power.
Scientists could not be trusted with that power.
And there are nowhere near enough candidates to take the reins away from the blind deaf drivers of the world's governments and economies.

There has to be some enormously disruptive event, like the discovery of a new clean energy source, or the arrival of sentient computers, Ray Kurzweil's Singularity event. Without that, we are racing ever faster into the jaws of oblivion. We need an external factor to save us from ourselves, because we have proven again, and again to be incapable of saving ourselves.
If this doesn't happen, we are doomed, and I mean in our lifetimes.


This a set of loosely connected statements, which could be referred to as expressions of some form of insanity, but which I really can't get out of my head. I feel like i am sitting in the front seat of a car, heading for a high speed impact, and can do nothing about it.
I apologise for the darkness of my contribution to this thread, and I hope to goodness that I am wrong, and in fact, I would love to have any of what I have said here disagreed with in a way that would make it plain that I am in fact, in the throes of a mid life crisis, and couldn't be less correct.


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