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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 4:28 am 
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I don't post much on this site but I'm a long-time lurker.
Here's my take: The CTA needs to be abolished. Boats and planes between Britain and "the mainland" (Ireland) already ask for identification. Brexit is not going to work well for the Brits, at least in the short to medium term. Look at the amount of the fuckers, and our fellow Irish men and women up North, applying for an Irish/EU passport.
I know the link below is satire but my suspicion is that traffic will be coming our way instead of people trying to get into a xenophobic Britain suffering under a prolonged recession.
http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2016/06/24/thousands-of-british-refugees-make-dangerous-journey-across-the-irish-sea/


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:57 am 
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Neo Landlord

Joined: Jul 24, 2012
Posts: 233
Eschatologist wrote:
temene wrote:
Mossy_Heneberry wrote:
Forgive my ignorance, I know nothing about cars but would you not have to pay VRT on it?

Reduced price includes vrt etc.

A 2013 Ford Focus hatchback at Dublin Ford dealer = €16,750 with 61,000km on the clock.
In Belfast, an identical car, 80,000km on the clock, = £7,995/€8,850.
VRT = €2,711
Total import price (allowing €200 for new number plates, NCT inspection and fuel to get from Dublin-Belfast and back) = €11,761
- a saving of €5,000 on Dublin price.
https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-sty ... -1.2829763


The 520d example shows the incredibly shit value from the Irish market. A 4 year old car with 150,000 km on the clock for 38k! It would have been less than 60k new.

Standard depreciation is 20% a year even with normal mileage (15k km /year). So a 4 year old 60k car should be 25k. Which is exactly what it cost imported after VRT.

You know the Motor sales racket is bothered by the amount of cars being imported when you see some of the puff pieces in the papers and adds on the radio.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:28 am 
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Joined: Jul 9, 2008
Posts: 978
Location: In the Sandpit.
http://www.rte.ie/amp/910662/
Quote:
An internal report by the Revenue Commissioners has spelled out the enormous physical and economic impact Brexit will impose upon both Ireland’s customs infrastructure, and on the tens of thousands of companies who trade with the UK.

The unpublished report, seen by RTÉ News, sets out in stark detail the vast increase in paperwork, human resources and physical space requirements at ports and airports.

The report also declares that an open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic will be impossible from a customs perspective.

Quote:
When goods are shipped from one EU member state to another they maintain their EU status. They get they status because they have applied for it and it's restricted to ships that operate solely between EU ports.

"Ships plying their trade between the UK and Ireland will no longer be able to benefit from the arrangements currently in place, leading to additional compliance costs for operators," the report states. Overall, the potential explosion in customs declarations will mean a huge increase in paperwork for traders and Revenue.

"The actual scale of the increased activity is unknowable," the report says.

Senior official suggests says it could end up being a multiple of between 10 and 30.

And so on and so forth...


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 4:18 pm 
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Joined: Mar 31, 2009
Posts: 1615
Some of the Brexiteers are becoming the most pessimistic/fatalistic about the UK's prospects of a deal. See this Twitter thread and blog from a chap called Pete North from the Leave Alliance.

Central points: a deal is (pretty much) impossible so the hardest of Brexits is now inevitable. He reckons they'll lose all their manufacturing, a big chunk of trade, have to slash public sector jobs and spending, and endure a very long recession. But, somehow, he prefers that to staying in the EU.

I've no idea whether he's right. But if he is, and he can see how bad it will be, it's astounding how much pain Leavers are willing to take just to be out of a club that benefits them quite a bit. What are the good things about Brexit again? Fewer gypsies or something is it? Very important.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 4:32 pm 
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Joined: Sep 29, 2010
Posts: 8267
Location: London, innit
Ixelles wrote:
Some of the Brexiteers are becoming the most pessimistic/fatalistic about the UK's prospects of a deal. See this Twitter thread and blog from a chap called Pete North from the Leave Alliance.

Central points: a deal is (pretty much) impossible so the hardest of Brexits is now inevitable. He reckons they'll lose all their manufacturing, a big chunk of trade, have to slash public sector jobs and spending, and endure a very long recession. But, somehow, he prefers that to staying in the EU.

I've no idea whether he's right. But if he is, and he can see how bad it will be, it's astounding how much pain Leavers are willing to take just to be out of a club that benefits them quite a bit. What are the good things about Brexit again? Fewer gypsies or something is it? Very important.



well he means JIT (Just In Time) Manufacturing
if they really plan to call the EU's bluff* they should be have new IT systems out to tender, have a cadre of customers inspectors in training.

* as they would see it


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 4:43 pm 
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Property Magnate

Joined: Jan 4, 2012
Posts: 549
IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2017 wrote:
...
On the downside, policy uncertainty is more of a concern than usual, reflecting, for example, difficult-to-predict US regulatory and fiscal policies, the potential adoption of trade restrictions, negotiation of the United Kingdom’s relationship with the EU post-Brexit, and geopolitical risks. A perceived likelihood of more inward-looking policies could trigger a correction in asset valuations and an increase in financial market volatility from its current very low levels. In turn, a correction in asset valuations and higher financial market volatility could knock down spending and confidence more generally, especially in countries with financial vulnerabilities.
More...


This report also gives the largest negative outlook projection among the advanced economies for the UK.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:48 pm 
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Posts: 978
Location: In the Sandpit.
The lack of analysis of the implications of a no-deal, in the UK media, is staggering. Even the Guardian doesn't seem to understand or acknowledge the possible consequences. Has any paper mentioned the term "third country" and spelled out its meaning?


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:06 pm 
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Location: London, innit
london_irish wrote:
The lack of analysis of the implications of a no-deal, in the UK media, is staggering. Even the Guardian doesn't seem to understand or acknowledge the possible consequences. Has any paper mentioned the term "third country" and spelled out its meaning?

the FT has been good - obviously, Pro-Remain but assertions have stood up to scrutiny unlike the Hopium in the Torygraph; commenter "The Pouca" is some sort of [Irish] Trade lawyer and has been really enlightening

e.g. Trump shafting the Brits again
https://www.ft.com/content/92bb5636-a95 ... 219df83c97
Quote:

The Trump administration has joined a group of countries objecting to a deal between the UK and EU to divide valuable agricultural import quotas, in a sign of how the US and others plan to use Brexit to force the UK to further open its sensitive market for farm products. 

President Donald Trump has been one of the most prominent international backers of Brexit and has vowed quickly to negotiate a “beautiful trade deal” with the UK after it leaves the EU. 

But his administration’s objection to a preliminary plan, agreed to by Brussels and London over how to split the EU’s existing “tariff rate quotas” under World Trade Organisation rules after the UK assumes its own WTO obligations following Brexit, illustrates how Washington is likely to drive a hard bargain. 


It also undermines efforts by Theresa May’s government this week to portray the WTO deal with the EU as a significant win, something made doubly painful by Mr Trump’s past backing of Brexit. 

The risk for the UK is that as part of its post-Brexit transition in the WTO it may have to accept opening up access to agricultural goods from third countries far more than it wants — even before it agrees any new trade deals with such countries.

A spokesman for Britain’s department for international trade said on Thursday that the EU-UK plans would be discussed “extensively with our partners in the WTO before proceeding”, in a reference to the UK’s desire to avoid a bruising battle in the WTO on the issue.

Britain was seeking a “smooth transition which minimises the disruption to our trading relationships”, he said.


But the US joined other major agricultural exporters including Argentina, Brazil and New Zealand in signing a letter sent last week to the EU and UK’s WTO ambassadors objecting to the plan to split the quotas that cover everything from New Zealand butter and lamb to US poultry and wheat. 

Under WTO rules, those country-specific quotas allow low-tariff imports up to a certain volume with tariffs increasing after that. As such, they are hugely valuable to countries such as Argentina and New Zealand that depend heavily on agricultural exports and the powerful farm lobby in the US. 

While the UK was a founding member of the WTO and one of the first signatories of its predecessor, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, its membership obligations until now have been managed by the EU. 

The EU-UK plan calls for the existing EU quotas to be split between the EU and UK after Brexit based on historical imports and consumption patterns. 

The US and others, however, argue that method is unfair as it would effectively allow the EU to reduce its obligations to fellow WTO members and set a low bar for the UK as well. 


“Such an outcome would not be consistent with the principle of leaving other [WTO] members no worse off, nor fully honour the existing TRQ access commitments. Thus, we cannot accept such an agreement,” the countries wrote. 

Emily Davis, spokeswoman for Robert Lighthizer, the US trade representative, said neither the EU nor the UK had presented any written plan for how to handle the WTO quotas to Washington. But the Trump administration was “actively engaged with its trading partners on the future of UK and EU tariff rate quotas following Brexit”. 

“Ensuring that US exporters of food and agricultural products have the market access in Europe due to them even after Brexit is a high priority for the administration,” she said. 



if they open borders completely their Brexit voting farmers are absolutely fucked

https://www.ft.com/content/cd9323b8-ad0 ... 21c713abf4
Quote:



Agricultural incomes could halve after Brexit unless the UK strikes a free-trade agreement with the EU, according to a new report that urges farmers to prepare for Britain’s departure from the bloc by boosting their productivity.

The average UK farm is predicted to have its income fall from a current level of £38,000 per year to £15,000 should the UK unilaterally open its borders to low-cost food producers, said the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, an advisory body to British farmers.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:32 am 
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Joined: Jul 9, 2008
Posts: 978
Location: In the Sandpit.
slasher wrote:
london_irish wrote:
The lack of analysis of the implications of a no-deal, in the UK media, is staggering. Even the Guardian doesn't seem to understand or acknowledge the possible consequences. Has any paper mentioned the term "third country" and spelled out its meaning?

the FT has been good - obviously, Pro-Remain but assertions have stood up to scrutiny unlike the Hopium in the Torygraph; commenter "The Pouca" is some sort of [Irish] Trade lawyer and has been really enlightening


Yes, sorry, you are right. I was listening recently to the FT Brexit Unspun podcasts and found them quite good.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:20 pm 
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Property Magnate

Joined: Oct 11, 2012
Posts: 662
The British media (and indeed Government) still seem to believe that a 'trade deal' involving tariffs is all that is required with the EU. They don't seem to grasp the breadth of the regulatory framework that the UK will be leaving, and without which trade in most products and services won't be possible.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:03 pm 
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Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Mar 14, 2013
Posts: 1603
[img]
https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status ... 72/photo/1
[/img]

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/10 ... posed.html

_________________
An increase in the number of paupers does not broaden the market. M. Kalecki


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:36 am 
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Real Estate Developer

Joined: Jul 9, 2008
Posts: 978
Location: In the Sandpit.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/ ... 0621130088
Quote:
THE prime minister has caused chaos at a Tesco checkout after being unable to do a deal where she handed over money for goods.

May was spotted at the Tesco Express on Bridge Street promising cashiers that she had shopped with ‘humility’ and her basket contained groceries that were ‘right for Britain’, but refusing to discuss payment.

City worker Joanna Kramer said: “It was definitely her. She was doing her stare.

“They kept telling her the bill was £15.34 and asking if she had a debit card, and she’d just repeat that ‘this early in negotiations was not the time to show her hand’.

“The cashier offered to put some things back if she couldn’t afford them, but she refused because she had committed to deliver these specific items to the people.”

Kramer added: “Then she just stood there, saying nothing, ignoring all suggestions that she leave.

“I left after 10 minutes. She’s probably still there.”


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:02 pm 
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Joined: May 18, 2009
Posts: 4059
I don't know how to embed a facebook video, so any help, thanks.


Click on the:' Diplomacy Is Like Dating. Please watch and share.' video.

https://www.facebook.com/Lukemingflanag ... 415788903/

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:26 pm 
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Joined: Sep 29, 2010
Posts: 8267
Location: London, innit
EU leaders to block Brexit trade talks at October summit

Progress on divorce settlement seen as insufficient to break deadlock
Quote:


EU leaders will next week approve internal discussions on a post-Brexit relationship with the UK, but refuse to start talks with Britain until further progress is made on its divorce settlement, according to a draft summit statement seen by the Financial Times.

https://www.ft.com/content/ff329274-af4 ... 21c713abf4


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:32 pm 
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Joined: Sep 7, 2010
Posts: 44
I would say the atmosphere in the UK is febrile to say the least.

The latest:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... ng-brexit/

Quote:
The Chancellor Philip Hammond has risked opening a major diplomatic row after describing the EU as “the enemy” in Brexit negotiations.



Just in case anyone thinks this war talk is something new:

http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/30/ukip-lord ... s-5975655/

Quote:
Lord Pearson of Rannoch, the former leader of the eurosceptic party, asked the Lords if it was not true that it was we – Britain – who ‘hold the stronger hand’ because there are 3million EU nationals living in the United Kingdom and 1.2million British living in the EU. ‘When present tensions have calmed down, why would either Brussels or London want to do anything to upset this mutually beneficial situation?’ Lord Pearson said. Lord Pearson said Britain had the ‘stronger hand’ due to the migrant deficit ‘Do the Government agree however, that if the EU were to get difficult with our nationals living there, it is we who would hold the stronger hand if we retaliate, because so many more of them are living here?’



Then not so long ago there was this:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ael-fallon

Quote:
Theresa May would go to war to protect Gibraltar, Michael Howard says

Sir Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, also used robust language. “We’re going to look after Gibraltar. Gibraltar is going to be protected all the way because the sovereignty cannot be changed without the agreement of the people of Gibraltar ,” he said.


And just in case you thought all this war talk was against Brussels and Madrid and I suppose Warsaw with Pearson's hostages there was also this a lot closer to home:

http://commentcentral.co.uk/eu-plan-to- ... spark-war/

Quote:
This is a volatile situation, with the Ulster-Scots afraid they might be ‘sold out’ and their territory handed to the Republic. If they perceive any threat to their position they would fight, and so the EU’s demands dramatically heighten the risks of war.

The British should respond by refusing any border even if that is a unilateral move. The UK could easily let the Republic build whatever border the EU wants but not respond by building one of its own. That way a clear message would be sent to everyone in Ireland that it is the EU who are putting peace at risk.


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