The AIB thread

bodyofevidence · **Joined:** Nov 21, 2008 **Posts:** 1732

xman wrote:

What year is AIB back to now, 1993?

haha

1987..... 8DD

xman · **Joined:** Sep 18, 2007 **Posts:** 4785

jesus..

Septic Crank · **Joined:** Apr 28, 2008 **Posts:** 2067

bodyofevidence wrote:

xman wrote:

What year is AIB back to now, 1993?

haha

1987..... 8DD

And after adjustment for inflation? :shock:

bodyofevidence · **Joined:** Nov 21, 2008 **Posts:** 1732

Septic Crank wrote:

bodyofevidence wrote:

xman wrote:

What year is AIB back to now, 1993?

haha

1987..... 8DD

And after adjustment for inflation? :shock:

oh, all right : about late 1989....(rough calc)

xman · **Joined:** Sep 18, 2007 **Posts:** 4785

adjusting for inflation would send it back further surely.

what could you buy with 1.20 back in 1987, vs what could you buy with €1.54 today

adjusting for dividends would bring it forward.

they probably cancel each other out..

bodyofevidence · **Joined:** Nov 21, 2008 **Posts:** 1732

xman wrote:

adjusting for inflation would send it back.
adjusting for dividends would bring it forward.

they probably cancel each other out..

look. Its fooked anyhow you look, ok.... :roll:

Septic Crank · **Joined:** Apr 28, 2008 **Posts:** 2067

bodyofevidence wrote:

oh, all right : about late 1989....(rough calc)

You can track AIB's ADR back to 1990 on Yahoo finance and in dollar terms AIB is lower now than it was in 1990:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AIB# ... =undefined

If you adjust for inflation it must be back to the 1970s levels or so. Of course this ignores the dividends paid in the meantime. As a really really crude approximation you could say that the after-tax dividend income cancels the effect of inflation and treat the nominal 1990 price as the same as a dividend and inflation-adjusted price.

Now if you bought a house in 1990 for cash and lived in it....

soc · **Joined:** Mar 19, 2008 **Posts:** 1233

walktothewater wrote:

whizzbang wrote:

Glad I didn't buy those AIB shares I was thinking of.

But why is it tanking today? Is it because the government has shown it will nationalize banks? Or is it because now that one has been nationalized their is no way to nationalize the others as we can't afford it?

Bingo. IMO I believe they are all insolvent.

Jesus, I hope not - I thought BOI and AIB were treading water alright but still solvent.

BOI seems to be holding reasonably steady so is there any other reasons AIB might be dropping?

bodyofevidence · **Joined:** Nov 21, 2008 **Posts:** 1732

soc wrote:

walktothewater wrote:

whizzbang wrote:

Glad I didn't buy those AIB shares I was thinking of.

But why is it tanking today? Is it because the government has shown it will nationalize banks? Or is it because now that one has been nationalized their is no way to nationalize the others as we can't afford it?

Bingo. IMO I believe they are all insolvent.

Jesus, I hope not - I thought BOI and AIB were treading water alright but still solvent.

BOI seems to be holding reasonably steady so is there any other reasons AIB might be dropping?

its down 10% today....!

soc · **Joined:** Mar 19, 2008 **Posts:** 1233

bodyofevidence wrote:

soc wrote:

BOI seems to be holding reasonably steady so is there any other reasons AIB might be dropping?

its down 10% today....!

Sorry, meant it doesn't seem to be doing as badly relative to AIB

yoganmahew · **Posted:** Fri Jan 16, 2009 4:21 pm

Septic Crank wrote:

If you adjust for inflation it must be back to the 1970s levels or so.

Surely go forward for inflation? Today's money is worth less than the equivalent amount in 1987 and all that?

xman · **Joined:** Sep 18, 2007 **Posts:** 4785

say AIB shares are €1.50 today and were the same price IR 1.20 in 1987.

say in 1987 a packet of taytos was 12p, today it's 60c.

so AIB shares would have to be €3 today to have the same purchasing power as 1.20 in 1987.

so if you say that AIB shares are "worth" the same today as they were in 1987, nominally yes, but adjusted for inflation no. €1.50 today does not have the same purchasing power as 1.20 did in 1987.

yoganmahew · **Posted:** Fri Jan 16, 2009 4:59 pm

Um, oh yeah :oops:

Pill · **Joined:** Mar 2, 2007 **Posts:** 3059

Quote:

AIB gets cool reception to rights issue
Monday, January 19 08:38:50

(BizWorld)

News In Brief

## AIB has received a cool response from potential US investors that it sounded out last week. It met them when it launched a low-key investor roadshow to drum up support for 1 1 bn euro rights issue top raise capital. Executives from Fidelity, Capital Group andf Franklin Templeton questioned AIB's chief executive Eugene Sheehy on the "dismal" standard of regulation of the Irish banking sector. Events at Anglo Irish have "seriously affected the plans by AIB and Bank of Ireland for selling new shares in the market", one senior stockbroking source said.If shareholders fail to support a rights issue then the Government would have to make good on its promise to take up the shares itself, leaving it with a majority stake in Bank of Ireland and almost half of AIB. - Sunday Times

http://www.businessworld.ie/livenews.htm?a=2347007;s=rollingnews.htm

I didn't see this posted elsewhere.

HouseBuyer · **Joined:** Feb 8, 2007 **Posts:** 3146

AIB have fouled up big-time here. If they had flogged their stake of MTB in the States and the Polish operation last year, they could have strengthened Tier 1 capital to the tune of €4 billion. If they had stopped the dividend last year, that would have given them another €600 million. Even that kind of buffer might not have been enough, but at least it would mean they could raise capital on favourable terms.

All I can say is, I'm glad I flogged my AIB shares, even if I did make a loss.

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