http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opi ... 06409.html


I've read similar on other posts but this sums it up nicely for me. All this "sure didn't we all do well out of the boom" and "no one saw it coming" is a crock of shit.

Excellent Article.

Yep, well worth a read.

Classic "write by numbers" opinion piece by a non-expert.

It’s time then to take aside the only demographic in town and tell them some truths. The CFDs, the subprime lending, the shunting of millions and billions between banks, all of these things are terrible and have made a bad situation worse. But we have two crises – a monetary meltdown and a fiscal collapse. They are intertwined and yet independent. Without a banking crisis we’d still have a fiscal disaster.

What is this "monetary crisis"? What is Sarah telling us that we don't know? Surely Sarah should not be limiting herself to just two crises she knows nothing about. Why did she not mention more:

A competitiveness crisis.
A property bubble.
An international banking/liquidity crisis.
An Irish fiscal crisis.
A regulatory crisis.
A reputational crisis.
A potential UK monetary crisis.
A potential Eurozone monetary crisis.
A potential international monetary crisis.
A financial markets crisis.
A derivatives crisis.
An insurance markets crisis.
A pensions crisis.
A population crisis.
An energy crisis.
A population crisis.
A food crisis.
A climate change crisis.
Simmering International political crises.
A media and propaganda crisis.
A personal liberty crisis.

Stop surfing the wave of consensus and tell us something everybody doesn't already f_cking know Sarah!

Er, isn't that the point NC? What consensus? Everybody doesn't know. Personally I'm sick of the "international factors/shyster bankers/evil developers" excuses being trotted out by all and sundry. It's one step up from "a bigger boy did it".

I think the point being made is that the vast majority of people in Ireland bought in to the boom-mongering and were prepared to turn a blind eye to a whole load of crap so long as their property was experiencing double digit growth. It's the reason why FF won the last election IMO.

The penny still hasn't dropped for a whole swath of people in Ireland. 2006 ain't coming back. The quicker everyone realises that the better. And sometimes the only way to get through is to state the bleedin' obvious.

I don't know who these people are who the penny hasn't dropped for but I can assure you they are a minority. We are passed the point where we need somebody to tell us we would have had a property bubble with or without the financial crisis. We are also passed needing to know that the international situation has made things significantly worse. Dell didn't close because of a property crash.

It's hard to tell what Sarah Carey's point is beyond suggesting that the Irish electorate are unsophisticated morons who were too stupid and greedy to second guess banks, bankers, EA's, the Department of Finance and the Social Partners. If SC is advocating some kiind of autocratic rule of Sarah-Carey-esque Philosopher Kings in the new Sarah-Carey-Republic then she might at least have the courtesy to tell us what her genius solution would be. "You-re all a shower of eejits" can be done in the style of the schoolyard or in the style of Shakesperean subtle irony. SC is stuck in the schoolyard imho.

Mr. Lenihan has only just appeared to accept this fact. Many others are still in denial. The day Ms. Coughlan stops mentioning US sub-prime and Lehman Brothers is a day that is yet to come.

Dell closed because it was cheaper to do business elsewhere. The property bubble was part of the increase in costs that made business in Ireland more expensive. I have still yet to hear any public figure in Ireland say that their primary goal is not to get the property market moving again.


I know of one person who gets it (as in one person not on the 'pin). That is, that almost all they have heard about property in the last five-ten years has been lies, some of it credulous, but much of it from people who did see it coming and carried on shilling.

May I direct you here:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=704

or here?

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=17995&start=0

Just because people are looking for too much for their property and journalists are still writing stupid articles doesn't mean that the vast majority don't know what way things are headed. The consensus in officialdom, the media, academia and in the business community is clear.

You only know one person outside the pin who can see the truth? Perhaps we move in parallel worlds? Perhaps things are different outside Dublin.

Also, what is wrong with wanting to get the market to the bottom and then moving again? What is wrong with people being able to cash in assets, banks being abe to recover monies owed, the government being able to take in revenue and people being employed in the activity?

Sarah Carey's article adds no new analysis or insight into what happened or why it happened. It also offers no further analysis or insight into what will be the result for us. It further offers no analysis of how things might be changed. It does not do a decent "what if" analysis of the mistakes made. It fobs us off with "everything is related".

It is as empty an article as I have seen. It is typical of the b_llsh_t "opinion pieces" that have lubricated the cogs of disaster. It is anti-knowledge journalism. It is also callous in blaming ordinary people who didn't consider themselves so canny or savvy but who simply played the hand that was dealt to them. It designated everybody as too stupid to avoid the car crash but prescient and knowledgeable enough to be culpable.

Isobel -v- Sarah? They are two sides of the one "smarter than you" coin. They are two wrongs who don't make a right.

I would hope so, but I don't see/hear evidence of it.


Or perhaps things are different in Dublin.


Now you are being disingenuous. Unless you are a greater fool, and I really doubt that from your posts, the talk of getting the property market moving has all been about artificial methods to prop up current prices (whatever they've fallen to) and get them rising again. Show my even one official or semi-official pronouncement that expresses a desire to find a clearing price?


Yes it is callous. Imagine holding people to the decisions they have made. Because we all knew it couldn't last, no, no, no, we were all taken in by it, no, we believed the bankers would look after our better interests in looking after their own, no wait, I have it, we really know that small apartments in Dublin continue to be worth more than those in Paris, Milan, Frankfurt...

The point is that people were not just 'stupid' or 'naive' if you want to be kinder, they were greedy aswell. That is what the article is about. FF were voted back in again because they promised to keep unsustainably low taxes; the other parties were no better because they accepted those low taxes as given. Keep me being able to go on shopping trips to New York, in Gucci sunglasses, flat-screen TVs and new cars and I'll vote for you.


Well, you may be right there. It doesn't mean it doesn't need to be said, though.

While the article is a couple of years too late and is not exactly a cutting edge analysis of how we go into this mess, comparing her to Isabel Morton is farcical.

Some home truths always need to be repeated, particularly as everyone seems to be absolving themselves of any responsibility for the state we’re in.


Boo, fucking, hoo

I think you're totally missing the point NC. "Smarter than you"???


It doesn't designate anyone as "too stupid". Quite the opposite. It outlines that the people who voted for FF did so with their eyes open, knowing full well what FF stood for on the property front. The tent at the Galway races was there for all to see.

Its a subliminal FF party political broadcast.
amateurish journalistic rubbish, totally appropriate in the IT if you ask me.
Cant be arsed tearing this trash to shreds on so many fronts. My time is too valuable.
I hope this article doesnt represents the best in self critique and the post-apocalypse autopsy , is there any fucking talent left in irish journalism. No.

yoganmahew,

Vis-a-vis things getting better, my main recourse is talking to people through work and socially. Accountants, bankers, solicitors, EA's, construction workers, restaurateurs, publicans, electronic engineers, surveyors, insurance brokers and contractors all seem to know what the reality is. I did hear one contrarian boom-esque opinion from an out of Dublin accountant. I don't know if there is a difference otherwise.

On the talk of getting the market moving without propping it, there have been numerous pieces in the FT and the american press. Also, Cowen said numerous times that stamp duty stimulus would only delay the market settling. Richard Bruton and Michael McDowell were the ones looking for stimulus. I am sure lobby groups will look for stimulus packages to justify said lobby groups existence and I am sure Sindo columnists still have a hard_on for stamp duty reform but by and large nobody else is going for it. The recent affordable housing drive was more to offload affordble housing purchased by the state than to help builders imho. With that all said, I acknowledge that some VI's, journos for hire and lobbyists may be deluding themselves. However, most VI's just want movement to have some income rather than none.

Your mind-reading of imprudent buyers may be different to mine. The only people my age who have two houses have them because they signed up their new house before selling. Most of them knew their property could go down but reckoned that they would be ok over 10 years. International deflation was not the threat then that it is now. None of them are whinging too much now either as they reckon that at least they have the chance to pay capital off a mortgage. They may still be wrong but if they can't sell their houses anyway being wrong won't hurt them any more. Most of them focus on their work rather than on their property.

I don't have a flat screen TV and I have never bought a new car (I do have some pretty cool shades). My analysis is that most people voted for FF becasue they did not have confidence in FG. The election was there for the taking and FG did not have the talent in a situation where most people knew we were heading for rougher economic times despite the various manifestos. Kenny finished it with his lack of addition skills in the leaders debate. Again, that impression is based on various conversations I had. Many have now changed their opinion as things are 10 times worse than anticipated. However, what I have heard from people does not tally with what you infer as people's reasons. I am sure you are basing your opinion on conversations too so I don't know how to reconcile these views. I would simply suggest that reading people's mind is a tricky business.

Beyond that, as a long time reader of the site I would like to say I have generally respect your analysis and knowledge.

Carey is a FG supporter.