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 Post subject: Re: The David McWilliams thread
PostPosted: Tue Dec 29, 2015 3:05 am 
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Speculator

Joined: Jan 11, 2009
Posts: 496
Andy wrote:
Zero chance of an ecb rate rise in 2016 unless something monumentally miraculous happens.


Yes given 2016 is upon us I think thats more than safe to say ...I'll have to edit my original post accordingly ..as currently I see no indication of rises over the next 12months...of course I'm open to different views on that.

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 Post subject: Re: The David McWilliams thread
PostPosted: Tue Dec 29, 2015 8:58 am 
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Joined: Apr 9, 2014
Posts: 1861
Andy wrote:
Zero chance of an ecb rate rise in 2016 unless something monumentally miraculous happens.

The ECB rate is at a local maximum until end 2017.


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 Post subject: Re: The David McWilliams thread
PostPosted: Tue Dec 29, 2015 9:36 am 
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Of Systemic Importance

Joined: Jun 9, 2008
Posts: 7056
Quote:
This is a valedictory moment for the US because it means that they have managed to drag their economy out of a liquidity trap without the government spending hugely.

The US has escaped the trap using monetary policy alone. Most economists said this couldn’t be done, but the US has done it.


WTFFF?

Quote:
So the central bank began buying financial assets and creating new money to pay for them.
In total, the Fed has added $3.7tn worth of assets to its holdings, about an eightfold increase.


http://www.bbc.com/news/business-29823798

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 Post subject: Re: The David McWilliams thread
PostPosted: Mon Mar 14, 2016 12:32 pm 
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Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Jan 28, 2013
Posts: 1336
"In the next few months, the courts will decide how many of Ireland’s small businesses will be handed over to these funds. This transfer of assets is taking place right under our nose. It is a disaster for the country, for the society and for the capital base of the economy, and yet it is legal."

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2016/03/1 ... nslaved-us


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 Post subject: Re: The David McWilliams thread
PostPosted: Mon Mar 14, 2016 1:13 pm 
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Posts: 16996
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Scratcher wrote:
"In the next few months, the courts will decide how many of Ireland’s small businesses will be handed over to these funds. This transfer of assets is taking place right under our nose. It is a disaster for the country, for the society and for the capital base of the economy, and yet it is legal."

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2016/03/1 ... nslaved-us


Or, "McWilliams is on holidays is Barbados and makes spurious 'slave' analogies with Ireland in order to call it research".

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 Post subject: Re: The David McWilliams thread
PostPosted: Mon Mar 14, 2016 1:17 pm 
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Joined: Jan 28, 2013
Posts: 1336
Mantissa wrote:
Scratcher wrote:
"In the next few months, the courts will decide how many of Ireland’s small businesses will be handed over to these funds. This transfer of assets is taking place right under our nose. It is a disaster for the country, for the society and for the capital base of the economy, and yet it is legal."

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2016/03/1 ... nslaved-us


Or, "McWilliams is on holidays is Barbados and makes spurious 'slave' analogies with Ireland in order to call it research".


Ha, yeah I always skip over the first few paragraphs of his articles.


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 Post subject: Re: The David McWilliams thread
PostPosted: Mon Mar 14, 2016 1:33 pm 
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IMF'd

Joined: Sep 13, 2007
Posts: 31337
Location: Tullamore
Scratcher wrote:
"In the next few months, the courts will decide how many of Ireland’s small businesses will be handed over to these funds. This transfer of assets is taking place right under our nose. It is a disaster for the country, for the society and for the capital base of the economy, and yet it is legal."

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2016/03/1 ... nslaved-us

With the new bankruptcy legislation, many of these businesses will just die and be reborn, no? While some property and assets will change hands, in the end, they'll have to be sold back for cheaper to the people who want to use them... essentially the same businesses.

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 Post subject: Re: The David McWilliams thread
PostPosted: Mon Mar 14, 2016 1:44 pm 
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Joined: Jan 28, 2013
Posts: 1336
yoganmahew wrote:
Scratcher wrote:
"In the next few months, the courts will decide how many of Ireland’s small businesses will be handed over to these funds. This transfer of assets is taking place right under our nose. It is a disaster for the country, for the society and for the capital base of the economy, and yet it is legal."

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2016/03/1 ... nslaved-us

With the new bankruptcy legislation, many of these businesses will just die and be reborn, no? While some property and assets will change hands, in the end, they'll have to be sold back for cheaper to the people who want to use them... essentially the same businesses.


Or Wall St just dumps the assets to the 'greatest' fools, the Irish!


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 Post subject: Re: The David McWilliams thread
PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2016 11:09 am 
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Joined: Mar 3, 2009
Posts: 190
McDreamy latest - 38m per year to build 50k houses in Dublin
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/colum ... 43903.html

there's a lot we could do for very little with the ridiculously low current cost of borrowing; if we're spending it on infrastructure would the EU really say no? They want to get money flowing into the economy...


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 Post subject: Re: The David McWilliams thread
PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2016 11:22 am 
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Too Big to Fail

Joined: Aug 23, 2008
Posts: 3358
Location: Bogtrotterland!
shweeney wrote:
McDreamy latest - 38m per year to build 50k houses in Dublin
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/colum ... 43903.html

there's a lot we could do for very little with the ridiculously low current cost of borrowing; if we're spending it on infrastructure would the EU really say no? They want to get money flowing into the economy...

But, employing builders would move money into the economy, or does increasing sales of breakfast rolls not count.

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 Post subject: Re: The David McWilliams thread
PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2016 11:27 am 
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Single Home Owner

Joined: Mar 3, 2009
Posts: 190
dolanbaker wrote:
shweeney wrote:
McDreamy latest - 38m per year to build 50k houses in Dublin
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/colum ... 43903.html

there's a lot we could do for very little with the ridiculously low current cost of borrowing; if we're spending it on infrastructure would the EU really say no? They want to get money flowing into the economy...

But, employing builders would move money into the economy, or does increasing sales of breakfast rolls not count.


I know, that's what I meant. Address infrastructural deficit, and pump money into the economy - win/win.


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 Post subject: Re: The David McWilliams thread
PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2016 2:32 pm 
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Of Systemic Importance

Joined: Feb 8, 2007
Posts: 5137
That's the best idea I've heard from McWilliams in a long time.

The government surely have access to a NAMA site, they have access to cheap capital, we have a massive pool of labour that is desperate to work, the demand for property in the Dublin are is most certainly there and with prices still well below peak, the risk is low. In ordinary times, the private sector would step into this breach to meet supply. This has not happened so why can't the government step in to facilitate action? Given the inelastic supply situation with property development, a situation that's critical in there here and now will only get worse in the short-term, so it's time to act now.


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 Post subject: Re: The David McWilliams thread
PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2016 2:50 pm 
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Real Estate Developer

Joined: Oct 7, 2014
Posts: 995
HouseBuyer wrote:
That's the best idea I've heard from McWilliams in a long time.

The government surely have access to a NAMA site, they have access to cheap capital, we have a massive pool of labour that is desperate to work, the demand for property in the Dublin are is most certainly there and with prices still well below peak, the risk is low. In ordinary times, the private sector would step into this breach to meet supply. This has not happened so why can't the government step in to facilitate action? Given the inelastic supply situation with property development, a situation that's critical in there here and now will only get worse in the short-term, so it's time to act now.


Well, it was time to act about 3 years ago, when the lack of a supply pipeline should have been obvious to anyone paying attention.

Still better to act 3 years late rather than 4, of course. Or 5, or 6, or never...


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 Post subject: Re: The David McWilliams thread
PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2016 2:56 pm 
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Joined: Feb 19, 2009
Posts: 2507
Quote:
Our new government can borrow for 30 years today at 0.7pc per annum.


Sorry Dave, you've priced a ten year bond not a 30 year!
30 Year Irish debt is 1.84% --- still cheap but changes his numbers a lot.

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 Post subject: Re: The David McWilliams thread
PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2016 2:56 pm 
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Joined: Jan 1, 1970
Posts: 22510
HouseBuyer wrote:
That's the best idea I've heard from McWilliams in a long time.

The government surely have access to a NAMA site, they have access to cheap capital, we have a massive pool of labour that is desperate to work, the demand for property in the Dublin are is most certainly there and with prices still well below peak, the risk is low. In ordinary times, the private sector would step into this breach to meet supply. This has not happened so why can't the government step in to facilitate action? Given the inelastic supply situation with property development, a situation that's critical in there here and now will only get worse in the short-term, so it's time to act now.


I think he must have read an recent but old Coles2 post or maybe even early pin posts.

I do however have general show stopper problems with the opening logic, though the personal anecdote at the start is good.

Define your reality! 8)

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