Board index » The IRISH PROPERTY BUBBLE » The Central Bank

Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 2942 posts ]  [Go to page]   Previous  1 ... 193, 194, 195, 196, 197  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:42 am 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Oct 19, 2010
Posts: 2577
Location: Dublin SE
ps200306 wrote:
Terra Incognita wrote:
I assume PS you are heavily invested in oil?

No, why? I write more in these pages about property and astrophysics, but I'm not heavily invested in those either.

Not a perjoritive question, just curious.

_________________
"Perfect is the enemy of the good"
Voltaire (1694 - 1778)


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:38 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Apr 1, 2010
Posts: 10217
Terra Incognita wrote:
ps200306 wrote:
Terra Incognita wrote:
I assume PS you are heavily invested in oil?

No, why? I write more in these pages about property and astrophysics, but I'm not heavily invested in those either.

Not a perjoritive question, just curious.

I own shares in one oil company, which I did as an experimental foray into share trading in general a couple of years back. They tanked instantly. I also have shares in one other energy company (not oil). I'm not an active investor in anything, really.

_________________
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" – Niels Bohr


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:21 am 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Apr 1, 2010
Posts: 10217
US shale has certainly come roaring back (c.f. Reuters). Oil output is set to imminently hit the 10 mbpd level, surpassing the all time record set in 1970. The US is only 10% off becoming the biggest producer in the world, which some see happening by the end of next year. Efficiencies are way up compared to before the downturn -- a well can be drilled in a week instead of a month, more bores can be drilled from a single platform, and a higher proportion of hydrocarbons in place can be extracted. On the other hand, land and oil services costs are up and the supply of labour is down. Unemployment in some parts of the Texas Permian basin is down to 2.6%. But there are still thousands of "ducks" -- drilled uncompleted wells -- to be worked through, so output will certainly keep rising for some time.

It is a bit scary that nobody really knows the depletion profile of shale basins. Individual wells deplete quickly but technology continues to improve overall extraction, and the sizes of regional deposits are vast. While the big producers in the Middle East and Russia are still pumping conventional crude, the US shale contribution is now a significant portion of world supply, needed to satisfy the robustly growing demand. Interesting times ahead, as always.

_________________
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" – Niels Bohr


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:11 am 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Apr 1, 2010
Posts: 10217
If latest weekly figures are confirmed, the US will have surpassed its nearly 50-year-old all time oil output record. It is looking like 10.26 million barrels per day, higher than the 10.04 mbpd record set in November 1970. Shale output has increased faster than expected, with drillers adding additional rigs last week after the high prices experience in January.

It certainly isn't looking like plain sailing -- oil prices gave back most of the year's gains this week alongside the stock market uncertainty. The increases in US output and plans for Iran to increase output mean that the oil market could end up oversupplied again, instead of the rebalancing expected for this year.

_________________
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" – Niels Bohr


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:01 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Apr 1, 2010
Posts: 10217
One factoid I wouldn't have guessed is that shale only produces about 7% of world supply. Meanwhile declines in other fields continue to stack up year on year. Which is why even deepwater oil -- traditionally the most expensive conventional source to exploit -- is getting a look in. New lower cost techniques are revitalising this area along with the others.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil- ... SKCN1FY2AI

_________________
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" – Niels Bohr


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Sat Mar 03, 2018 7:11 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Apr 1, 2010
Posts: 10217
The US EIA has put out its latest projections for US shale oil production. The 2018 Annual Energy Outlook is here. Unfortunately the oil projections are so uncertain as to be almost useless. If you believe their reference case, which assumes current estimates of oil in place and current rates of technology-based efficiency gains, US oil production will plateau in the next five years and hit a gentle peak around 2040 before declining. The low case which assumes a low resource estimate and no more efficiency gains shows a peak inside five years with continuous decline through 2050. The high case, with opposite assumptions, shows growth through 2050 to almost twice today's production levels.

Image

_________________
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" – Niels Bohr


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:56 am 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Mar 14, 2013
Posts: 1812
ps200306 wrote:
The US EIA has put out its latest projections for US shale oil production. The 2018 Annual Energy Outlook is here. Unfortunately the oil projections are so uncertain as to be almost useless. If you believe their reference case, which assumes current estimates of oil in place and current rates of technology-based efficiency gains, US oil production will plateau in the next five years and hit a gentle peak around 2040 before declining. The low case which assumes a low resource estimate and no more efficiency gains shows a peak inside five years with continuous decline through 2050. The high case, with opposite assumptions, shows growth through 2050 to almost twice today's production levels.

Image

Id image the reserves are there but the tech improvements are limited without using more aggressive chemicals. Which might be ok under trump but not in the medium term.

_________________
An increase in the number of paupers does not broaden the market. M. Kalecki


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:56 am 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Apr 1, 2010
Posts: 10217
werpen wrote:
Id image the reserves are there but the tech improvements are limited without using more aggressive chemicals. Which might be ok under trump but not in the medium term.

Recent tech improvement haven't been much about chemicals. They include drilling more wells from a single pad, drilling longer wells on a single string, dramatically decreasing well completion times, isolating sections of a single well for stimulation using "frack balls" and perforated pipes with retractable sleeves, controlling flow rates to maximise ultimate recovery while using less proppant sand, and so on. All of these happened under Obama, who oversaw the biggest expansion in US oil extraction in the history of the oil business.

_________________
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" – Niels Bohr


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:21 pm 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Mar 14, 2013
Posts: 1812
ps200306 wrote:
werpen wrote:
Id image the reserves are there but the tech improvements are limited without using more aggressive chemicals. Which might be ok under trump but not in the medium term.

Recent tech improvement haven't been much about chemicals. They include drilling more wells from a single pad, drilling longer wells on a single string, dramatically decreasing well completion times, isolating sections of a single well for stimulation using "frack balls" and perforated pipes with retractable sleeves, controlling flow rates to maximise ultimate recovery while using less proppant sand, and so on. All of these happened under Obama, who oversaw the biggest expansion in US oil extraction in the history of the oil business.

I thought we were looking at Future efficiencies? Additional pipelines may drive down transportation costs (which trump has greenlighted)
Not sure what obama has to do with that?
There was huge gains in efficiency in the shale fields but i cant see much further efficiencies beyond relaxing regulations. Production/transportation/capital spending costs are already sub $20

_________________
An increase in the number of paupers does not broaden the market. M. Kalecki


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:42 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Apr 1, 2010
Posts: 10217
Yes, you're right we are talking about future improvements. I was just observing that some recent ones were done with fancy down-hole tech. You're right about infrastructure too. That could be the most serious bottleneck. One of the things delaying a lot of Texas wells is that they have maxed out their flaring permits, so can't pump oil because they can't get rid of the gas. Obviously they're flaring it because they can't capture it economically. Something that makes it cheaper to pipe gas to a central hub would improve both oil and gas output, as well as curb useless CO2 emissions.

_________________
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" – Niels Bohr


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:53 pm 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Mar 14, 2013
Posts: 1812
ps200306 wrote:
Yes, you're right we are talking about future improvements. I was just observing that some recent ones were done with fancy down-hole tech. You're right about infrastructure too. That could be the most serious bottleneck. One of the things delaying a lot of Texas wells is that they have maxed out their flaring permits, so can't pump oil because they can't get rid of the gas. Obviously they're flaring it because they can't capture it economically. Something that makes it cheaper to pipe gas to a central hub would improve both oil and gas output, as well as curb useless CO2 emissions.


The use of pipelines in spite of the major opposition is clearly the best overall option both cost wise and environmentally. Its pretty amazing the efficiencies the US shale operators have achieved. Saudis attempt to bankrupt them has put them in a much stronger position.

_________________
An increase in the number of paupers does not broaden the market. M. Kalecki


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:24 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Apr 1, 2010
Posts: 10217
Agreed. They have already broken through the magic 10 million barrel per day mark briefly, and look set to average greater than 10 mbpd for the year, which is pretty incredible.

_________________
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" – Niels Bohr


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:30 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Apr 1, 2010
Posts: 10217
Oil prices have been buoyed by Chinese conciliatory statements on trade wars, Middle East tensions, strong draws on US inventories, and the weak dollar. WTI and Brent were up sharply today with WTI pushing $66 and Brent above $71 for the first time since November 2014.

_________________
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" – Niels Bohr


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 12:18 am 
Offline
Nationalised

Joined: Nov 6, 2006
Posts: 8697
Location: Australia
https://in.reuters.com/article/us-newze ... NKBN1HI383

Quote:
New Zealand government says will not issue new oil, gas exploration permits


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 9:15 am 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Apr 1, 2010
Posts: 10217
This seems a bit extreme. I presume there's more to it than a dislike for gasoline:

Quote:
A prominent gay rights lawyer and environmental advocate has burned himself to death in New York on Saturday, reportedly using fossil fuel in a protest against ecological destruction.

The charred remains of 60-year-old David Buckel were found by passers-by in Brooklyn’s Prospect Park. Police said he was pronounced dead at about 6.30am.

The New York Times said it received an emailed copy of the note, which said: “Most humans on the planet now breathe air made unhealthy by fossil fuels, and many die early deaths as a result – my early death by fossil fuel reflects what we are doing to ourselves.”

The Daily News reported Buckel left a suicide note in a shopping cart near his body that said he hoped his death was “honorable” and “might serve others”. In the note, Buckel said “I just killed myself by fire as a protest suicide”, the News reported.

_________________
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" – Niels Bohr


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 2942 posts ]  [Go to page]   Previous  1 ... 193, 194, 195, 196, 197  Next

    Board index » The IRISH PROPERTY BUBBLE » The Central Bank

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Jump to:  

Follow, Retweet @dailypinster



Pyramid Built, Is Better Built! - Latest Property Discussions www.thepropertypin.com