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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:58 pm 
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dolanbaker wrote:
It will be interesting to see if US producers are able to ramp up production again to force the price down, or will they wait until the price rises enough to make it "worth it!"

That's the $64k question. It's why medium term estimates of WTI prices vary anywhere from $55 to $75. It could also have a knock-on effect: OPEC might be happy to keep supply off the table to trade price for market share as long as the strategy is working, but if the Yanks undercut them again you could see the taps opened once more. Then the question is do we head back to the $30 region, or will the last couple of years of under-investment limit that effect. I suspect the latter, but wouldn't be surprised either way. There are some analysts who say the limit of how much more US shale can expand is not far away. On the other hand, the "peakers" have never yet been correct.

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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:38 pm 
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As oil is a finite source of energy that has hard physical limits, the "peakers" will be right one day, it's just that fracking delayed that by about a decade. After that, price rationing will prevent any shortages for those who can afford it.

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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:34 pm 
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dolanbaker wrote:
As oil is a finite source of energy that has hard physical limits, the "peakers" will be right one day, it's just that fracking delayed that by about a decade.

I think you mean fracking delayed the most recently predicted onset of doom. Other factors staved off the doom that's been predicted for the last 150 years. And even the decade delay predicted for fracking is already too pessimistic as shale shows no sign of peaking after more than a decade.*

* (Yeah, I know, the price collapse reduced the extraction rate. When they're still wrong in a few years time, the peakers will have another excuse. I've learned that peakers use only one excuse at a time. When they are eventually proved wrong beyond all doubt there is already another excuse lined up in which the peakers invest their unassailable belief. Which is why I just repeat the truism: the peakers will be wrong until they're right, and they've never been right yet).

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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:11 pm 
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werpen wrote:
Any following the Vanadium Redox-⁠Flow Battery development. Seems like it has real potential, excuse the pun.


https://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/fu ... ow-battery

I did a bit of a deep dive into this.

It looks like a potential workable option for utility scale storage but the 20 yrs use case with no degradation is a bit of a stretch.

As far as I can tell the major downsides are that these batteries are large. 200kw is the size of two large shipping containers. Compare that to the 100 kw in a model S.

The other major downside is that they require maintenance unlike the Li cell option. Because the electolite is either a strong alkali or a strong acid that is pumped round a circuit. Pumps and seals can fail and need to be replaced by a trained individual wearing not insignificant PPE. There are about 2 pumps per 100kw so for a 100mw installation (the size of the utility battery Tesla installed in Australia) that’s about 2000 pumps and many more seals / connections.

When a cell fails. You need a forklift to remove it.

So if you install one of these batteries at utility scale. You will need a huge area and a team of engineers and parts to maintain the battery for the 20 yrs life span.

So if you plug it in it’s unlikely to be working 2 yrs later without significant maintenance.

As far as I’m aware the Tesla utility option is plug and play and maintenance free for 10 yrs then individual units can be replaced. Each unit is made up of 1000’s of individual batteries not unlike AA’s. Each cell is fused so that if a cell fails it is automatically isolated from the stack which accounts for part of the battery degradation over time. Hence it is auto maintained.

The flow batteries appear to solve some problems that the Li solution has but at the same time creating greater problems elsewhere.

Despite having a 10yr life span, the Tesla type Li solution is probably cheaper, more convenient and takes up a fraction of the area required by the Flow batteries over a 20 year life cycle.

Hat tip to @Slasher

See this company offering commercial utility scale Vanadium flow batteries https://www.viznenergy.com

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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:02 am 
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Interesting info, thanks TI. I wonder if some additional economies of scale can be achieved on a larger installation, like a smaller number of larger pumps. I guess that would affect modularity. In any case, small pumps can easily achieve MTBFs of 3-5 years which would mean one or two failures per day in your 100 MW installation. That sounds manageable if the pumps are accessible and easily isolated.

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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:56 pm 
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I don't know whether this video has already been posted already (perhaps in the Tesla thread)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
Quote:
Stanford University futurist Tony Seba spent the last decades studying technological disruptions. He argues that the Electric Vehicle, battery storage, and solar power, along with autonomous vehicles, are a perfect example of a 10x exponential process which will wipe fossil fuels off the market in about a decade. TonySeba.com – RethinkX.com He is the author of several books, including most recently “Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation: How Silicon Valley Will Make Oil, Nuclear, Natural Gas, Coal, Electric Utilities and Conventional Cars Obsolete by 2030”, and “Solar Trillions: 7 Market and Investment Opportunities in the Emerging Clean-Energy Economy” Tony Seba spoke in Boulder, Colorado, where he was awarded the 2017 Sunshine Award by Clean Energy Action (cleanenergyaction.org).


I think his figures are a bit optimistic regarding car ownership in rural countries like Ireland, most rural dwellers will not have the patience waiting for a self drive car to reach them in the sticks to drive to the next clump of houses a couple of Kms down the road.
The peak demand and abandonment of expensive oil plays could ring true if the take up of EVs in as high as he forecasts.

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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:18 pm 
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Terra Incognita wrote:
werpen wrote:
Any following the Vanadium Redox-⁠Flow Battery development. Seems like it has real potential, excuse the pun.


https://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/fu ... ow-battery

I did a bit of a deep dive into this.

It looks like a potential workable option for utility scale storage but the 20 yrs use case with no degradation is a bit of a stretch.

As far as I can tell the major downsides are that these batteries are large. 200kw is the size of two large shipping containers. Compare that to the 100 kw in a model S.

The other major downside is that they require maintenance unlike the Li cell option. Because the electolite is either a strong alkali or a strong acid that is pumped round a circuit. Pumps and seals can fail and need to be replaced by a trained individual wearing not insignificant PPE. There are about 2 pumps per 100kw so for a 100mw installation (the size of the utility battery Tesla installed in Australia) that’s about 2000 pumps and many more seals / connections.

When a cell fails. You need a forklift to remove it.

So if you install one of these batteries at utility scale. You will need a huge area and a team of engineers and parts to maintain the battery for the 20 yrs life span.

So if you plug it in it’s unlikely to be working 2 yrs later without significant maintenance.

As far as I’m aware the Tesla utility option is plug and play and maintenance free for 10 yrs then individual units can be replaced. Each unit is made up of 1000’s of individual batteries not unlike AA’s. Each cell is fused so that if a cell fails it is automatically isolated from the stack which accounts for part of the battery degradation over time. Hence it is auto maintained.

The flow batteries appear to solve some problems that the Li solution has but at the same time creating greater problems elsewhere.

Despite having a 10yr life span, the Tesla type Li solution is probably cheaper, more convenient and takes up a fraction of the area required by the Flow batteries over a 20 year life cycle.

Hat tip to @Slasher

See this company offering commercial utility scale Vanadium flow batteries https://www.viznenergy.com

Lazard do a levelized unsubsidized cost comparison for storage. Lithium appears to have a slight edge on grid solutions but not much given the rapid growth and development. No comparison for commercial and residential

https://www.lazard.com/perspective/leve ... rage-2017/
Look back at the 2015 and 2016 reports and see how prices have changed.

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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:37 am 
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dolanbaker wrote:
I don't know whether this video has already been posted already (perhaps in the Tesla thread)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
Quote:
Stanford University futurist Tony Seba spent the last decades studying technological disruptions. He argues that the Electric Vehicle, battery storage, and solar power, along with autonomous vehicles, are a perfect example of a 10x exponential process which will wipe fossil fuels off the market in about a decade. TonySeba.com – RethinkX.com He is the author of several books, including most recently “Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation: How Silicon Valley Will Make Oil, Nuclear, Natural Gas, Coal, Electric Utilities and Conventional Cars Obsolete by 2030”, and “Solar Trillions: 7 Market and Investment Opportunities in the Emerging Clean-Energy Economy” Tony Seba spoke in Boulder, Colorado, where he was awarded the 2017 Sunshine Award by Clean Energy Action (cleanenergyaction.org).


I think his figures are a bit optimistic regarding car ownership in rural countries like Ireland, most rural dwellers will not have the patience waiting for a self drive car to reach them in the sticks to drive to the next clump of houses a couple of Kms down the road.
The peak demand and abandonment of expensive oil plays could ring true if the take up of EVs in as high as he forecasts.


I think the main thing he has ignored is that if we are to transition from oil for transport, we have to not only replace all currently generated electricity with solar, but we have to generate the same again to power transport. He says fourteen years. My guess is twice that -- let's call it thirty. If his biennial doubling is correct I am being overly pessimistic -- it would only take another two years on top of his estimate to double our output again. But I think the adoption curve will not stay exponential, it will become sigmoid. And it doesn't allow for any other increase in energy needs. Quite possibly, when we are generating 100% of today's electricity demand from solar, we could still be using more oil than we do today.

Slightly off topic, just saw a suggestion in a discussion about blockchain of using it as the basis for trading electricity in a smart grid with vehicle batteries providing a lot of the backup storage. That would be a neat synergy.

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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Sat Dec 30, 2017 2:28 am 
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Terra Incognita wrote:
Despite having a 10yr life span, the Tesla type Li solution is probably cheaper, more convenient and takes up a fraction of the area required by the Flow batteries over a 20 year life cycle.


Where are you getting the 10 year life span from ?

Because its possible that the new cells they are using are twice as good as the cells in the early Model S/X, they could last far longer than 10 years depending on how hard they cycle them for grid storage

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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:52 pm 
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China will begin trading oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange later this month. It's a bit too early to predict the rise of the petro-yuan though.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... cktake-q-a

On this side of the blue ball, WTI scraped past the finish post to end the year a few cents above $60, with Brent above $66.

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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:14 am 
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ps200306 wrote:
WTI scraped past the finish post to end the year a few cents above $60, with Brent above $66.

Wow! Barely a week after New Year, Brent is knocking on the door of $70, and WTI near $63.50 (graph below). Yesterday both benchmarks had their strongest close since December 2014. It's still hard to see them pushing back much more of the steep drop of 2014 though. With spare capacity in OPEC I imagine the floodgates would open to mop up any demand for $65+ oil, even if that means countries cheating on their quotas.

Image


Meanwhile, here's an interesting chart from October. Utility-scale battery installations in the US, annual additions and installed capacity. Still fairly trifling at under a gigawatt but it's the trajectory that counts.

Image

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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:52 pm 
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Under-investment in exploration due to the 2014 oil price crash is starting to be felt. 2017 saw the smallest amount of new oil and gas discovery since the 1940s.

Oil and Gas Journal wrote:
Exploration added a record-low 7 billion boe in 2017, not seen since the 1940s, said Mlada Passos, senior analyst at Rystad Energy... Discovered volumes averaged about 550 MMboe/month, and the reserves replacement ratio reached only 11% for oil and gas combined. Rystad said 2006 was the last year the reserve replacement ratio reached 100%, largely owing to the giant onshore Galkynsh gas field in Turkmenistan.

... Despite these notable successes, Passos said low discovered volumes globally “represent a serious threat to the supply levels some 10 years down the road.” Since 2014, exploration expenditures have fallen more than 60%, Passos said. A turnaround is necessary to avoid a future supply deficit.

More...

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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:29 am 
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I assume PS you are heavily invested in oil?

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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:46 am 
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Terra Incognita wrote:
I assume PS you are heavily invested in oil?

No, why? I write more in these pages about property and astrophysics, but I'm not heavily invested in those either.

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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:11 am 
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ps200306 wrote:
Under-investment in exploration due to the 2014 oil price crash is starting to be felt. 2017 saw the smallest amount of new oil and gas discovery since the 1940s.

Oil and Gas Journal wrote:
Exploration added a record-low 7 billion boe in 2017, not seen since the 1940s, said Mlada Passos, senior analyst at Rystad Energy... Discovered volumes averaged about 550 MMboe/month, and the reserves replacement ratio reached only 11% for oil and gas combined. Rystad said 2006 was the last year the reserve replacement ratio reached 100%, largely owing to the giant onshore Galkynsh gas field in Turkmenistan.

... Despite these notable successes, Passos said low discovered volumes globally “represent a serious threat to the supply levels some 10 years down the road.” Since 2014, exploration expenditures have fallen more than 60%, Passos said. A turnaround is necessary to avoid a future supply deficit.

More...


I should have mentioned also that, per the IEA, 2017 also saw energy companies approve the lowest number of new drilling projects for over seventy years.

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