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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:42 am 
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ps200306 wrote:
Terra Incognita wrote:
I assume PS you are heavily invested in oil?

No, why? I write more in these pages about property and astrophysics, but I'm not heavily invested in those either.

Not a perjoritive question, just curious.

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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:38 pm 
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Terra Incognita wrote:
ps200306 wrote:
Terra Incognita wrote:
I assume PS you are heavily invested in oil?

No, why? I write more in these pages about property and astrophysics, but I'm not heavily invested in those either.

Not a perjoritive question, just curious.

I own shares in one oil company, which I did as an experimental foray into share trading in general a couple of years back. They tanked instantly. I also have shares in one other energy company (not oil). I'm not an active investor in anything, really.

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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:21 am 
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US shale has certainly come roaring back (c.f. Reuters). Oil output is set to imminently hit the 10 mbpd level, surpassing the all time record set in 1970. The US is only 10% off becoming the biggest producer in the world, which some see happening by the end of next year. Efficiencies are way up compared to before the downturn -- a well can be drilled in a week instead of a month, more bores can be drilled from a single platform, and a higher proportion of hydrocarbons in place can be extracted. On the other hand, land and oil services costs are up and the supply of labour is down. Unemployment in some parts of the Texas Permian basin is down to 2.6%. But there are still thousands of "ducks" -- drilled uncompleted wells -- to be worked through, so output will certainly keep rising for some time.

It is a bit scary that nobody really knows the depletion profile of shale basins. Individual wells deplete quickly but technology continues to improve overall extraction, and the sizes of regional deposits are vast. While the big producers in the Middle East and Russia are still pumping conventional crude, the US shale contribution is now a significant portion of world supply, needed to satisfy the robustly growing demand. Interesting times ahead, as always.

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