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 Post subject: Re: Eur Wedge On De Edge
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2012 9:10 am 
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quozl wrote:
I would like to have some moderate proportion of my savings outside of euros.

Does anybody have any opinions on this line of reasoning?

Money fled to swiss frank as a perceived safe haven over the last few years. Swiss frank rose against euro and swiss central bank stepped in to so far successfully to force a ceiling of 1.20 CHF to the euro.

Now in the (unknown likelihood) event that the eurozone does break up at least partially and Ireland ends up back with its own random depreciating currency or in a much weakened euro because of a german exit, CHF is likely to be seen as a safe heaven again.

To my mind that would likely mean the end of the CHF ceiling of 1.20 CHF to the euro as the potential losses to the swiss central bank would be enormous to try and enforce that.
At the least I can't see how in the face of that they could lower the ceiling below 1.20 CHF to the euro, though doubtlessly the swiss central bank does want CHF at less than the current 1.20 ceiling.

The risk of transferring euros to CHF IMO is that the euro muddles through, everything returns to normality and the CHF slides back down to something more like 1:1. That could cost me a fair proportion of the transferred money but I don't see how it's that likely and perhaps some minor losses would be a reasonable price to pay for the reassurance of having some of the money outside of euro.

So, for someone who wants to move some of their euros to a different currency as a hedge against potential euro difficulties, I think CHF currently looks like a reasonable gamble (and I can't argue it's not a gamble).
I don't trust dollars or sterling not to have their own fits in the near future. NOK is very high and perhaps they will follow the swiss lead and impose a similar ceiling.

What do you think?

Anything that I'm missing in this reasoning?


Is it that time of year again already?

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 Post subject: Re: Eur Wedge On De Edge
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2012 10:38 am 
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Take it for what its worth..few general rules

1) dont have all your eggs in one basket..
2) diversify if you can afford it i.e GBP, Euro,Chf Usd and Cash..
3) Currency controls is a guarantee if/when this goes down

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 Post subject: Re: Eur Wedge On De Edge
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2012 10:52 am 
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quozl wrote:
The risk of transferring euros to CHF IMO is that the euro muddles through, everything returns to normality and the CHF slides back down to something more like 1:1. That could cost me a fair proportion of the transferred money but I don't see how it's that likely and perhaps some minor losses would be a reasonable price to pay for the reassurance of having some of the money outside of euro.

Anything that I'm missing in this reasoning?


your exchange rates are off for one - "back to 1:1"? - it's a ceiling on the other way i.e. 1.20 is a floor

Quote:
To my mind that would likely mean the end of the CHF ceiling of 1.20 CHF to the euro as the potential losses to the swiss central bank would be enormous to try and enforce that.


of course they don't want that but talking about losses is also a bit off; when you have printing presses at your disposal a fall in the value of the assets your purchased with your paper isn't as much of a concern...

Of course diversification is good; but you also need to match your outgoings - otherwise you are speculating and retail speculators are always getting the shitty end of the stick.

Transferring over and back costs a % (in commission or Bid-Ask) every time; you'll also be losing out on a couple of % you'd get in a EUR deposit acc. Just be aware is all.


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 Post subject: Re: Eur Wedge On De Edge
PostPosted: Tue Jul 24, 2012 8:31 pm 
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Howiyeh lads. Apologies if this is the wrong place for my question, but I'm new to the forum.

The question: what's the cheapest way for an Irish person to invest in US t-bills?

Many thanks...


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 Post subject: Re: Eur Wedge On De Edge
PostPosted: Sun Jul 29, 2012 11:37 pm 
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A weak euro is good for the holidays – and even for Europe itself

Quote:
As the currency declines, export-focused Germany becomes super-competitive. But devaluation is what the struggling eurozone economies yearn for too

Paradoxically, however, as the US economist Martin Feldstein recently suggested in the Financial Times, the weakness of the euro, while reflecting the loss of faith of the financial markets in the sustainability of the euro area, may simultaneously offer a lifeline to the single currency. For it is by now, one trusts, widely recognised that the economies under pressure – Greece, Spain, even Italy – have suffered a huge loss of competitiveness vis-a-vis Germany, and have, of course, been unable to devalue against a no-longer-existent deutschmark.

As Feldstein implies, though, the loss of confidence in the euro, and its accompanying decline, bring one consolation to the entire eurozone. Germany becomes even more "super-competitive" with that decline, and benefits most; but the rest become more competitive vis-à-vis non-eurozone countries.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/jul/29/weak-euro-good-for-holidays-and-europe

A bit of balance to the all pervasive Murdoch/telegraph press about the constantly imminent euro collapse. We should welcome our recent currency devaluation.The economy has been crying out for it for years.


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 Post subject: Re: Eur Wedge On De Edge
PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2012 12:23 am 
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FAUGH45568 wrote:
Take it for what its worth..few general rules

1) dont have all your eggs in one basket..
2) diversify if you can afford it i.e GBP, Euro,Chf Usd and Cash..
3) Currency controls is a guarantee if/when this goes down



i dont know if buying all the cars in your local FIAT dealer counts as diversification. Theres only 1 way to be sure:)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wV0wPBYDQ6Y

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 Post subject: Re: Eur Wedge On De Edge
PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2012 1:06 pm 
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lord vader wrote:
FAUGH45568 wrote:
Take it for what its worth..few general rules

1) dont have all your eggs in one basket..
2) diversify if you can afford it i.e GBP, Euro,Chf Usd and Cash..
3) Currency controls is a guarantee if/when this goes down



i dont know if buying all the cars in your local FIAT dealer counts as diversification. Theres only 1 way to be sure:)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wV0wPBYDQ6Y



touché

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQh5Cx-EuV8

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What condition was the property in for each of the properties you are saying the bottom is in for!


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 Post subject: Re: Eur Wedge On De Edge
PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2012 4:04 pm 
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FAUGH45568 wrote:


O/T but I thought it was ironic that Apple have an ad about being able to run Windows on your Mac. What about Mac OS on your Windows PC? ... perfectly doable, but unfortunately not legally, since Apple's OS license forbids it.

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 Post subject: Re: Eur Wedge On De Edge
PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2012 11:41 am 
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A rate cut for those with the wedge in Rabo...

Quote:
Great Rate

3.10% Variable. Gross/AER* on your first €20,000, and 2.40% Variable. Gross/AER* on anything above that. This rate applies to both new and existing customers. We believe that's fair.

You should know that from September 5th 2012, a variable rate of 2.75% Gross/AER* will apply on the first €20,000 deposited and a variable rate of 2.15% Gross/AER* will apply to the remaining deposit above €20,000.

Then, from September 12th we will introduce an additional tier of 0.50% Gross/AER* for balances above €10 million.


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 Post subject: Re: Eur Wedge On De Edge
PostPosted: Sat Aug 11, 2012 11:43 pm 
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There's a significant cooling off of deposit rates in Irish banks. KBC and Rabo will be able to reduce their rates and still keep them vastly superior to the competition.


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 Post subject: Re: Eur Wedge On De Edge
PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2012 10:18 am 
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Poor Student wrote:
There's a significant cooling off of deposit rates in Irish banks. KBC and Rabo will be able to reduce their rates and still keep them vastly superior to the competition.


Yeah, in recent weeks, there has been a coordinated cull in deposit rates at the 3 pillar banks.

KBC can cut term deposit rates and still stay competitive.

Rabo has extremely un-competitive term deposit rates & instant access rates. They compete by using the safety card.


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 Post subject: Re: Eur Wedge On De Edge
PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2012 12:48 am 
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fungus wrote:
Poor Student wrote:
There's a significant cooling off of deposit rates in Irish banks. KBC and Rabo will be able to reduce their rates and still keep them vastly superior to the competition.


Yeah, in recent weeks, there has been a coordinated cull in deposit rates at the 3 pillar banks.

KBC can cut term deposit rates and still stay competitive.

Rabo has extremely un-competitive term deposit rates & instant access rates. They compete by using the safety card.


How come the rates are dropping? BOI gave 4.5% at the start of the year on a significant wedge, 3% at mid year, and they say it's going to drop to one-point-something next year. And that's even after they stop paying a 1.5% levy to the government for the ELG. I know the higher rates are unsustainable, but it's not like Irish banks have suddenly become any safer. At less than a couple of percent they are probably less attractive than earning zero outside the country for safekeeping.

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 Post subject: Re: Eur Wedge On De Edge
PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2012 1:45 pm 
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ps200306 wrote:
How come the rates are dropping? BOI gave 4.5% at the start of the year on a significant wedge, 3% at mid year, and they say it's going to drop to one-point-something next year. And that's even after they stop paying a 1.5% levy to the government for the ELG. I know the higher rates are unsustainable, but it's not like Irish banks have suddenly become any safer. At less than a couple of percent they are probably less attractive than earning zero outside the country for safekeeping.


The sky hasn't fallen in (yet). So, probably many retail customers are thinking that the worst is over, and if the pillar banks are still standing today, it will remain that way. Which brings us to one of the main reasons people don't change bank account - inertia.

As for putting money outside the country, that's not so easy for the average retail bank customer. This thread has been running for years and to tonnes of pages, yet I have not yet seen even a rough consensus on how to easily move your wedge out of this jurisdiction and still earn a guaranteed 0%.

There are some options for German speakers with the German Banks. They involve at least the investment of a day off work and a return flight to the Fatherland. And now the German government is removing the ability for retail customers to purchase bonds directly. There may be similar possibilities in France or the Netherlands for speakers of those languages. Anything in a foreign currency carries exchange rate risk, so you can't even claim to be earning 0%.

So, for many people who've opened an account with, say, BOI in the last year or so. They'll likely just stick with it even with declining interest rates.


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 Post subject: Re: Eur Wedge On De Edge
PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2012 2:12 pm 
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Persius wrote:
ps200306 wrote:
How come the rates are dropping? BOI gave 4.5% at the start of the year on a significant wedge, 3% at mid year, and they say it's going to drop to one-point-something next year. And that's even after they stop paying a 1.5% levy to the government for the ELG. I know the higher rates are unsustainable, but it's not like Irish banks have suddenly become any safer. At less than a couple of percent they are probably less attractive than earning zero outside the country for safekeeping.


The sky hasn't fallen in (yet). So, probably many retail customers are thinking that the worst is over, and if the pillar banks are still standing today, it will remain that way. Which brings us to one of the main reasons people don't change bank account - inertia.

As for putting money outside the country, that's not so easy for the average retail bank customer. This thread has been running for years and to tonnes of pages, yet I have not yet seen even a rough consensus on how to easily move your wedge out of this jurisdiction and still earn a guaranteed 0%.

There are some options for German speakers with the German Banks. They involve at least the investment of a day off work and a return flight to the Fatherland. And now the German government is removing the ability for retail customers to purchase bonds directly. There may be similar possibilities in France or the Netherlands for speakers of those languages. Anything in a foreign currency carries exchange rate risk, so you can't even claim to be earning 0%.

So, for many people who've opened an account with, say, BOI in the last year or so. They'll likely just stick with it even with declining interest rates.


Good points, and I guess I am evidence of the inertia factor myself, being constantly on the cusp of moving cash out of BOI and not being able to think of a sensible alternative. However, I do have a Rabo account, and below a certain rate in BOI that's where the money will go, for perceived greater safety reasons. Also, if one is sticking with the euro currency for the medium term, one might as well consider the various Irish state savings schemes, which still -- grossed up for non-DIRTness -- pay the equivalent of four or five percent. (Can anyone tell me how often these schemes are renewed and subject to new rates?).

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"If something cannot go on forever, it will stop" – Herbert Stein
"Einstein, stop telling God what to do" – Neils Bohr


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 Post subject: Re: Eur Wedge On De Edge
PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2012 5:18 pm 
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ps200306 wrote:
How come the rates are dropping? BOI gave 4.5% at the start of the year on a significant wedge, 3% at mid year, and they say it's going to drop to one-point-something next year. And that's even after they stop paying a 1.5% levy to the government for the ELG. I know the higher rates are unsustainable, but it's not like Irish banks have suddenly become any safer. At less than a couple of percent they are probably less attractive than earning zero outside the country for safekeeping.


A year ago, we were in post bank run mode, the ECB were raising rates, the banks had to meet IMF loans-to-deposits ratios, ELA was raising and the UK wings of the Irish banks were under the ELG.

A year later, deposits have stabilised, the ECB are reducing rates, the banks are getting closer to the 122.5% loans-to-deposits IMF target, ELA is reducing and the Irish banks are using their UK wings as a proxy for non-ELG high rate deposit gathering.

ps200306 wrote:
Good points, and I guess I am evidence of the inertia factor myself, being constantly on the cusp of moving cash out of BOI and not being able to think of a sensible alternative. However, I do have a Rabo account, and below a certain rate in BOI that's where the money will go, for perceived greater safety reasons. Also, if one is sticking with the euro currency for the medium term, one might as well consider the various Irish state savings schemes, which still -- grossed up for non-DIRTness -- pay the equivalent of four or five percent. (Can anyone tell me how often these schemes are renewed and subject to new rates?).


It has been a very long time since the NTMA have changed State Savings deposit rates. Some NTMA rates are determined by legislation.

Anyway, if you are getting a grossed up 4%-5%+, the rate will be locked for between 3 years to 5 years 6 months, at account opening stage.


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