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 Post subject: Japan: Bubble prophet fears new disaster
PostPosted: Sun Mar 21, 2010 7:02 pm 
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Bubble prophet fears new disaster -> http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/ ... 319f1.html

Quote:
Economist Noguchi warns soaring public debt may bankrupt Japan, bring back hyperinflation

Prominent economist Yukio Noguchi is one of the few who correctly predicted the collapse of Japan's bubble economy in 1987, warning the preceding euphoria was based on a major distortion in land prices.
Now the doomsday prophet is making another terrifying prediction: Japan is likely to be devastated by a snowballing public debt that will bankrupt its government and trigger catastrophic hyperinflation.
"There is little hope," Noguchi said in an interview with The Japan Times at Waseda University's Graduate School of Finance in Tokyo. "Japan's fiscal conditions are so bad, it can no longer be fixed without causing inflation. I'm very pessimistic."
Noguchi is not the only one deeply fretting the debt.
They may still be a minority, but an increasing number of economists and market players are voicing deep concerns about Japan's fiscal sustainability and fear catastrophe may strike in the near future.

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The Japanese public are the main holders of Japanese debt and Japan generally runs a trade surplus with the rest of the world. So Japan is simultaneously capitalised while the damage from any default means mostly the Japanese people that the hit.

EU railway firms call on Japan to play fair -> http://www.japantoday.com/category/busi ... -play-fair

Quote:
LONDON — Railway companies in Europe are calling on Japan to open up its market to free competition amid claims Tokyo is creating unnecessary barriers to protect domestic manufacturers.
UNIFE, the Association of the European Rail Industry, says Japan is abusing transportation ‘‘operational safety’’ clauses in free trade agreements to prevent EU firms from getting a foothold in the country.
And EU Trade Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner recently wrote in a letter to a British politician that Japan is ‘‘excessively invoking the so-called ‘operational safety clause’ to exclude foreign suppliers….’‘
UNIFE’s call is backed by leaders in the English city of Derby, whose local firm, Bombardier, lost out to Hitachi Ltd in February 2009, when the Japanese giant won a 7.5 billion pounds contract to supply Britain’s intercity rail network with new carriages. This is thought to have been the world’s largest single rail contract.

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Not only that these guys have run a ZIRP policy for a decade and implement protectionism for the benefit of their domestic industrialists.

FT: Japan Finalizes Bill On Temporary Workers -> http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20100320D20JF829.htm

Quote:
Japan's Democratic-led government on Friday finalised a bill that would make it more difficult for companies to hire temporary workers as the ruling party sought to fulfil an election pledge that had upset business groups.
Japanese companies have turned increasingly to temporary labour to get around rules that make it difficult and expensive to sack permanent staff during downturns. The new bill, which is expected to pass smoothly, would reverse labour-market liberalisation enacted by the previous government in 2004.
The bill would ban manufacturers from contracting with third-party employment agencies for temporary labour. Business groups have previously clashed with the centre-left government of Yukio Hat-oyama, elected last year, over plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, mandate debt holidays and freeze the privatisation of Japan Post.

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 Post subject: Re: Japan: Bubble prophet fears new disaster
PostPosted: Fri Apr 02, 2010 8:45 pm 
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Sengoku Says Japan Fiscal Situation Not Unlike Greece -> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... Sb7I1YGG4U

Quote:
April 2 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese National Strategy Minister Yoshito Sengoku said the country should have a greater sense of urgency about the nation’s fiscal situation, comparing it to the plight of Greece.

“So far some have been crying wolf, but Greece’s situation isn’t entirely unrelated to Japan’s,” Sengoku said at a news conference in Tokyo today. “At the end of the day, Japan’s situation right now is not that good. There hasn’t been a sense of crisis about this, including from ourselves.”

Sengoku has been tasked with developing a plan for repairing the finances of a country that is burdened with the world’s largest public debt. He said last month that Japan has “extremely little room” for further stimulus spending, and clashed with Financial Services Minister Shizuka Kamei over a plan to raise deposit caps at the nation’s postal bank, the biggest holder of government bonds.

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 Post subject: Re: Japan: Bubble prophet fears new disaster
PostPosted: Sun Apr 25, 2010 12:23 pm 
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Japan Tries to Face Up to Growing Poverty Problem ->http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/22/world/asia/22poverty.html

Quote:
MEMURO, Japan — Satomi Sato, a 51-year-old widow, knew she had it tough, raising a teenage daughter on the less than $17,000 a year she earned from two jobs. Still, she was surprised last autumn when the government announced for the first time an official poverty line — and she was below it.

Satomi Sato works mornings making boxed lunches. She said her family’s difficulties began in the late 1990s, when the economic slide worsened on the island of Hokkaido, as it did across much of rural Japan.
Satomi Sato, a 51-year-old widow, delivering newspapers, one of her two jobs. She is raising a teenage daughter on less than $17,000 a year.

“I don’t want to use the word poverty, but I’m definitely poor,” said Ms. Sato, who works mornings making boxed lunches and afternoons delivering newspapers. “Poverty is still a very unfamiliar word in Japan.”

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 Post subject: Re: Japan: Bubble prophet fears new disaster
PostPosted: Mon Apr 26, 2010 9:05 pm 
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IMF warns against Japan's fiscal deterioration -> http://www.japantoday.com/category/busi ... erioration

Quote:
WASHINGTON — A top official of the International Monetary Fund on Sunday warned against rising vulnerability in Japan’s fiscal conditions amid snowballing public debts and called for an accelerated effort to put the nation’s finances in order.
‘‘Although Japan’s problem should not be treated in the same way as the Greece debt crisis, its fiscal vulnerability is rising fairly high,’’ IMF Deputy Managing Director Naoyuki Shinohara said in an interview with Kyodo News.
Japanese fiscal deficits have been financed by the nation’s high savings so far, but the pace of fiscal deterioration is ‘‘pretty high,’’ Shinohara said.
In 2010, Japan’s outstanding public debt is projected to expand to nearly 200% of gross domestic product—by far the worst among industrialized countries

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 Post subject: Re: Japan: Bubble prophet fears new disaster
PostPosted: Tue May 11, 2010 8:08 pm 
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Japan's Govt Debt Soars To Record High Of Y882tln -> http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20100510D10JFA20.htm

Quote:
TOKYO (Nikkei)--Japan's fiscal health continued to deteriorate last fiscal year, with outstanding central government bonds, borrowings and financing bills ballooning 36.42 trillion yen on the year to a record 882.92 trillion yen as of March 31, according to Ministry of Finance data released Monday.

A large percentage of Japanese government bonds are owned by domestic institutional investors with a penchant for long-term investment, thereby lessening the possibility of the instruments facing a sudden sell-off. But Japan's soaring debt continues to fuel calls for action to quickly rebuild the government's fiscal health.

The MOF releases the central government debt numbers every quarter. The latest sharp increase was the result of 53.5 trillion yen in new JGB issuances in fiscal 2009 to fund economic stimulus measures and to offset falling tax revenue amid the turmoil from Lehman Brothers Holdings Co.'s collapse. Based on population estimates as of April, the central government debt burden totals roughly 6.93 million yen per capita. By contrast, the per capita figure for financially troubled Greece is an estimated 3 million yen or so, including local bonds.

Japan is scheduled to float 44.3 trillion yen in new government bonds to offset funding shortages for new policy measures in the fiscal 2010 budget. The MOF predicts Japan's debt could hit 973 trillion yen by the end of fiscal 2010.

Japan's outstanding public debt, including instruments like local bonds, accounted for 218.6% of gross domestic product at the end of 2009, according to the International Monetary Fund. The figure towers over comparable numbers of 84.8% and 68.7% for the U.S. and U.K., respectively.

But Japan's long-term interest rates remain low, despite the government's worsening financial situation. The benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield is currently holding around 1.3%, largely because of brisk demand from domestic institutional investors such as life insurance companies and banks. According to the Bank of Japan, domestic investors held 94.8% of JGBs as of 2009's end. This means that even if the government sharply increases its new bond issues, domestic investors will continue to snap them up against a backdrop of excess liquidity.

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 Post subject: Re: Japan: Bubble prophet fears new disaster
PostPosted: Mon Jun 07, 2010 6:38 pm 
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Hugh Hendry: Hyperinflation Is Coming After A Major Crisis In... JAPAN -> http://www.businessinsider.com/hugh-hen ... pan-2010-5

Quote:
The contrarian manager of Eclectica, Hugh Hendry, says hyperinflation is inevitable as many countries face insurmountable debt. And to get there, policy makers need a major deflationary event.
But what's surprising in Hendry's investors letter -- since he's been hating on China for weeks -- is that he says this crisis could come out of Japan.
Hendry point to the decline of a Japanese credit rating agency as evidence that everyone is ignoring an unprecedented debt burden (via market folly):

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 Post subject: Re: Japan: Bubble prophet fears new disaster
PostPosted: Sun May 29, 2011 4:29 pm 
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Shirakawa Opposes BOJ Underwriting Bonds a Day After Japan’s Outlook Cut -> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-2 ... k-cut.html

Quote:
Bank of Japan (8301) Governor Masaaki Shirakawa opposed the central bank underwriting of Japanese government bonds for the second time in a week, a day after Fitch Ratings lowered its outlook for the country because of rising levels of government indebtedness.

Underwriting government bonds may lead to rapid inflation, which won’t improve Japan’s fiscal position, Shirakawa said in an address to the Japan Society of Monetary Economics at Meiji University in Tokyo today. Underwriting JGBs would also may hamper bond issuance, raise yields on government debt and erode confidence in the yen, he said.

“Underwriting government bonds by a central bank, which may not appear problematic at first, will lead to limitless issuance of currencies and cause rapid inflation and devastate people’s life and economic activities,” Shirakawa said. “The improvement of fiscal balance can’t be achieved by causing inflation.”

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 Post subject: Re: Japan: Bubble prophet fears new disaster
PostPosted: Sun May 29, 2011 4:34 pm 
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BoyRacer wrote:
Hugh Hendry: Hyperinflation Is Coming After A Major Crisis In... JAPAN -> http://www.businessinsider.com/hugh-hen ... pan-2010-5

Quote:
The contrarian manager of Eclectica, Hugh Hendry, says hyperinflation is inevitable as many countries face insurmountable debt. And to get there, policy makers need a major deflationary event.


Wasn't Hendry arguing against hyper (or indeed ordinary) inflation up until now ?


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 Post subject: Re: Japan: Bubble prophet fears new disaster
PostPosted: Sun May 29, 2011 5:06 pm 
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mr_anderson wrote:
BoyRacer wrote:
Hugh Hendry: Hyperinflation Is Coming After A Major Crisis In... JAPAN -> http://www.businessinsider.com/hugh-hen ... pan-2010-5

Quote:
The contrarian manager of Eclectica, Hugh Hendry, says hyperinflation is inevitable as many countries face insurmountable debt. And to get there, policy makers need a major deflationary event.


Wasn't Hendry arguing against hyper (or indeed ordinary) inflation up until now ?


Here is what he said in January 2011 - Japan Is A "Nuclear Bomb Strapped Onto The Chest Of The Global Economy" -> http://www.businessinsider.com/hugh-hen ... ile-2011-1

I hope he was speaking metaphorically and not conspiring with OW to set off the HAARP system :)

Just how right have Hugh Hendry's macro calls been? - James Phillipps -> http://www.citywire.co.uk/wealth-manage ... -news-list

Quote:
Eclectica co-founder Hugh Hendry is one of the most outspoken fund managers in the country, both forthright and unafraid to be put his money where his mouth is. Indeed, he is the second biggest investor in his Eclectica Absolute Macro hedge fund, a go anywhere mandate dictated by Hendry’s top-down view.

The Scot started out at Baillie Gifford and, following a brief stint at Credit Suisse, joined Odey Asset Management after describing his first meeting with the eponymous Crispin Odey as ‘a meeting of minds’.

He chose to go it alone in 2005, launching Eclectica Asset Management where he is a partner and chief investment officer. A regular TV pundit, he has described talking to journalists as his worst vice, but whether he is right or wrong, he is always worth listening to.

Here we examine how accurate his calls have been in recent years.

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 Post subject: Re: Japan: Bubble prophet fears new disaster
PostPosted: Mon Jul 11, 2011 8:32 pm 
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Survey: 30% quake-related loans in arrears -> http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201107090263.html

Quote:
Thirty percent of loans to companies afflicted by the Great East Japan Earthquake are past due, as well as 10 percent of housing loans to earthquake victims, a Financial Services Agency survey showed.
The overdue loans total 550 billion yen ($6.8 billion), the agency said.
Most of the outstanding loans are unlikely be repaid, requiring financial institutions to take action, such as forgiving debt repayment, the FSA said.
The FSA conducted a survey on outstanding loan balances as of the end of May on three major banks in Japan and 38 regional financial institutions based in disaster-hit Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima prefectures.
Of those surveyed, 39 responded.
Of the total, 452 billion yen is owed by companies, which accounts for 30 percent of the outstanding loans for companies.

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 Post subject: Re: Japan: Bubble prophet fears new disaster
PostPosted: Thu Aug 04, 2011 11:16 pm 
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Japan to make 'all-out' efforts to fight surging yen: Noda -> http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/business ... 0000c.html

Quote:
TOKYO (AP) -- Japan will make "all-out" efforts to prevent the yen's surge from negatively affecting the country's economy, Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said Wednesday, stepping up his rhetoric amid growing speculation that the government and the Bank of Japan could intervene in the currency market.
Prime Minister Naoto Kan expressed hope that the BOJ would support the economy as the stronger yen has amounted to a "source of concern" for the government. The central bank will hold a two-day policy meeting starting Thursday.

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 Post subject: Re: Japan: Bubble prophet fears new disaster
PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2011 9:47 pm 
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Moody's Japan downgrade puts triple-As in spotlight -> http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/05/ ... RW20090518

Quote:
(Reuters) - Moody's Investors Service stripped the Japanese government of its last triple-A foreign currency credit rating on Monday in a move that could revive market speculation about the creditworthiness of other rich nations, especially the United States.

The two-notch downgrade to Aa2 from Aaa was a token censure for Japan which has almost no foreign currency debt exposure.

Moody's upgraded Tokyo's local currency rating to Aa2 from Aa3 saying the domestic bond market was able to cope with government plans for new borrowing.

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 Post subject: Re: Japan: Bubble prophet fears new disaster
PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:16 am 
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Azumi as Eighth Finance Chief Since 2008 Signals Japan’s Eroding Influence -> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-0 ... uence.html

Quote:
Japan’s revolving-door politics may be diminishing the nation’s global influence after Jun Azumi was appointed the eighth finance minister since 2008.
In the Group of Seven nations, Japan’s tally compares with one finance chief for Canada and two each for the U.S., U.K., Germany, France and Italy in that time. Azumi, 49, was named in Tokyo yesterday to replace Yoshihiko Noda, who became prime minister, the sixth person to have that job in five years.
<snip>
Economic Diplomacy

“It’s difficult to aggressively carry out economic diplomacy when leaders that attend important international meetings change positions right away,” Noda wrote in his blog after the 2010 G-20 meeting.

Japan’s concerns include the yen’s advance to a post-World War II high against the dollar last month, as the stronger currency may may hurt exporters’ earnings and endanger the nation’s economic recovery after the March 11 earthquake.

Azumi said late yesterday he will closely watch the yen’s strengthening trend as it’s negative for companies.

The G-7 jointly intervened in the currency market on March 18 after the yen surged following the disaster in the northeast. Japan’s government sold yen unilaterally last month, spending 4.51 trillion yen ($59 billion), the most for any month since 2004.

Flexible Yuan

China’s currency policy is also a concern for Japanese policymakers, Noda said Aug. 23. “I think the yuan’s still not flexible enough so I want to keep discussing that at international meetings,” such as G-20 conferences, he said.

Azumi, a former head of parliamentary affairs for the ruling party, will be faced with the task of ensuring a rebound in Japan’s economy after three straight quarters of contraction.

A government report yesterday showed that capital spending tumbled 7.8 percent in the second quarter, bucking the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists for a 1 percent gain. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose for a second month to 4.7 percent in July.

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With factories destroyed by the Tsunami and electricity rationed how is it a surprise that unemployment rose? oh yeah, it's the rising yen that caused it? well, if you don't produce the goods how can you sell them?

8 finance ministers in 3 years and a new prime-minister every year for the last 5? that's a new one every 4 or 5 months, this is a country in crisis even before the tsunami/nuclear catastrophe.

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 Post subject: Re: Japan: Bubble prophet fears new disaster
PostPosted: Sun Oct 16, 2011 8:19 pm 
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Sharp sets up 1st office to oversee China, Taiwan operations -> http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/business ... 6000c.html

Quote:
TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Sharp Corp. said Friday it has set up a company in Beijing as its first head office to oversee its operations in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan with an aim to speed up decision-making and expand its business in what it terms "the China region."

The electronics maker, known for its Aquos brand television sets, said business operations began for the new company Oct. 1 with a goal of chalking up sales in the three economies, including exports, of 1 trillion yen in the current fiscal year ending next March, up 18 percent from the previous year.

"In the very long term, total business opportunities will decrease in Japan due to the declining birthrate and aging population," Nobuyuki Sugano, chairman and president of the Beijing-based Sharp (China) Investment Co., said at a news conference in Tokyo.

Sugano, who also serves as Sharp's senior executive managing officer, said, "We have to significantly expand our business in China, where it's likely to grow further," adding, "I'll have sales (in China) surpass sales in Japan at an early date."

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In twenty years Chinese corporations will own most of todays Japanese industrials.


10 Japan institutions have 3 tril. yen exposure to debt-ridden Europe -> http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/business ... 0000c.html

Quote:
TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Ten major Japanese financial institutions have a combined exposure of around 3 trillion yen in the form of investments and loans to Greece and four other financially troubled European countries, according to survey findings compiled by Kyodo News on Friday.

While none of the institutions own government bonds issued by Greece in the midst of a deepening sovereign debt crisis, Italian government bonds account for a large portion of their exposure to the five countries, also including Portugal, Ireland and Spain, the survey found.

Of Japan's three biggest banking groups, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. has the largest investment and loan balance of 1.5 trillion yen, including 350 billion yen worth of Italian and Spanish government bonds.

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 Post subject: Re: Japan: Bubble prophet fears new disaster
PostPosted: Fri Oct 28, 2011 6:20 am 
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Japan central bank expands monetary easing - -> http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financia ... KEMN03.htm

Quote:
Japan's central bank on Thursday kept its key interest rate at nearly zero and will expand the size of an asset buying program to lend stronger support to the economy.

The Bank of Japan's policy board decided unanimously at a one-day meeting to leave the overnight call rate target at zero to 0.1 percent.

It voted 8-1 to increase its asset purchase program by 5 trillion yen to 55 trillion yen ($723 billion). It will use the extra funds to buy Japanese government bonds, hoping that further monetary easing will offset the export-sapping strength of the yen.

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