Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 57 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: The "Trouble in America" thread
PostPosted: Sun Jan 02, 2011 10:45 pm 
Offline
Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Apr 19, 2010
Posts: 1425
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/watch- ... erge-chaos
Quote:
Niall Ferguson Video Lecture - "Empires On The Verge Of Chaos"

ForaTV, in conjunction with the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, shares another terrific must watch presentation, this time by one of our favorite socioeconomic historians, Niall Ferguson, who in this lecture talks in depth, and with an objective perspective that only few can share, about empires on the verge of decline, emphasizing the precarious position the US has found itself in, now that China's ascendancy is undisputed, and only matched by the accelerating descent of the once great US nation. The fact that Ferguson is Paul Krugman's natural nemesis in all things only makes his insights all that more relevant (not to mention correct). And while the various chapters discuss such key concepts as the limits and implications of complexity theory, the ever increasing portion of US federal revenues attributed to interest payments (surpassing defense spending), China's military sustainability, the limits of Keynesian stimulus, investing in gold and hyperinflationary concerns, the primary highlight is Ferguson's discussion on what may be the primary topic of 2011: whether ot not debt will trigger the collapse of the US. To wit: "Sometime over the next decade the US will reach the crossover point at which it will be spending more on debt service, than it is able to spend on defense...

There is more

_________________
I don't to be in a club that would have Ireland as a member.


Last edited by BottomsUp on Wed Jan 19, 2011 10:13 am, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The "trouble in America" thread
PostPosted: Mon Jan 03, 2011 12:36 am 
Offline
Speculator

Joined: Sep 8, 2009
Posts: 448
Location: North Dublin
I read several Ferguson books and enjoyed them. He is a sort of McWilliams in the sense that he's probably right on many things, but too far out on the real detail and timing to really rely on his analysis for anything useful (like buying or selling or emigrating). He's also like McWilliams in that he would do absolutely anything legal to promote himself or sell a book.

His big weakness is that he can't wait for the US to collapse like the British Empire did. His impatience for this event poisons a lot of otherwise useful observations.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The "trouble in America" thread
PostPosted: Mon Jan 03, 2011 1:33 am 
Offline
Too Big to Fail

Joined: Jun 21, 2010
Posts: 3052
Fooled by randomness wrote:
I read several Ferguson books and enjoyed them. He is a sort of McWilliams in the sense that he's probably right on many things, but too far out on the real detail and timing to really rely on his analysis for anything useful (like buying or selling or emigrating). He's also like McWilliams in that he would do absolutely anything legal to promote himself or sell a book.

His big weakness is that he can't wait for the US to collapse like the British Empire did. His impatience for this event poisons a lot of otherwise useful observations.


I find Ferguson's work astonishingly biased tripe.
His insistence that the USA should treat UK as some sort of wiser older brother is insufferably tendentious.
He's a step up from Andrew Roberts. But only just.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The "trouble in America" thread
PostPosted: Mon Jan 03, 2011 6:32 pm 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Jan 12, 2008
Posts: 2887
Location: California
BlameGame wrote:
Fooled by randomness wrote:
I read several Ferguson books and enjoyed them. He is a sort of McWilliams in the sense that he's probably right on many things, but too far out on the real detail and timing to really rely on his analysis for anything useful (like buying or selling or emigrating). He's also like McWilliams in that he would do absolutely anything legal to promote himself or sell a book.

His big weakness is that he can't wait for the US to collapse like the British Empire did. His impatience for this event poisons a lot of otherwise useful observations.


I find Ferguson's work astonishingly biased tripe.
His insistence that the USA should treat UK as some sort of wiser older brother is insufferably tendentious.
He's a step up from Andrew Roberts. But only just.


Ferguson is the most important apologist for imperialism working today. Hes also the reason that FT reading city types could bore one to death a few years ago lecturing about how the Brits knew what they were doing in Iraq as the Americans foundered, because of their experience managing natives during the colonial period. His name will be quickly forgotten.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The "trouble in America" thread
PostPosted: Mon Jan 03, 2011 7:03 pm 
Offline
Of Systemic Importance

Joined: Sep 29, 2010
Posts: 5766
Location: London, innit
Fooled by randomness wrote:
I read several Ferguson books and enjoyed them. He is a sort of McWilliams in the sense that he's probably right on many things, but too far out on the real detail and timing to really rely on his analysis for anything useful (like buying or selling or emigrating). He's also like McWilliams in that he would do absolutely anything legal to promote himself or sell a book.

His big weakness is that he can't wait for the US to collapse like the British Empire did. His impatience for this event poisons a lot of otherwise useful observations.



I read his first book on the Rothschilds and as quite disappointed. I thought it would be really interesting as the family were incredibly successful but he made it really boring with excessive detail in parts.

His talents seem to lie in self promotion, not unlike a certain ginger Southsider


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The "trouble in America" thread
PostPosted: Mon Jan 03, 2011 9:36 pm 
Offline
Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Apr 19, 2010
Posts: 1425
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-clo ... -overnight

Quote:
US Closes 2010 With $14,025,215,218,708 And 52 Cents In Debt, A $154 Billion Increase Overnight

When we predicted a few weeks ago that the US would end 2010 with $13.8 trillion in debt we miscalculated the settlement dates on all the last round of bond auctions . As a result, we are happy to announce that as of December 31, 2010, the US now has $14,025,215,218,708 and 52 cents in debt (incidentally this is an increase of $154 billion in debt on the US balance sheet overnight). As a reminder the debt ceiling is 14,294,000,000,000. Which means at a run rate of $125 billion in net monthly issuance, the US may not even get to the end of March at the current burn rate. Which also means Congress better start the discussion on raising the debt ceiling as soon as February. Which means someone is about to [win/lose] some serious cash on the Feb 28 debt ceiling hike InTrade contracts.

Image

There is more.

_________________
I don't to be in a club that would have Ireland as a member.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The "trouble in America" thread
PostPosted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 12:43 am 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Jun 7, 2008
Posts: 2603
What do they mean by trade ceiling in that context? Am I right to infer that there are statutory limits on the amount that the US can borrow? Is it the point at which US debt:gdp exceeds 100%?


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The "trouble in America" thread
PostPosted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 9:55 am 
Offline
Nationalised

Joined: Sep 13, 2007
Posts: 28643
Location: Tullamore
johnnyskeleton wrote:
What do they mean by trade ceiling in that context? Am I right to infer that there are statutory limits on the amount that the US can borrow? Is it the point at which US debt:gdp exceeds 100%?

Congress votes on the debt limit ceiling that the government is allowed to borrow up to. I think that is what is referred to?

_________________
"It is impossible to design a system so perfect that no one needs to be good."

So long and thanks for all the fish.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The "trouble in America" thread
PostPosted: Thu Jan 06, 2011 1:34 am 
Offline
Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Apr 19, 2010
Posts: 1425
yoganmahew wrote:
johnnyskeleton wrote:
What do they mean by trade ceiling in that context? Am I right to infer that there are statutory limits on the amount that the US can borrow? Is it the point at which US debt:gdp exceeds 100%?

Congress votes on the debt limit ceiling that the government is allowed to borrow up to. I think that is what is referred to?


I think so too, that happened recently, they voted to increase it, looks like they make quite a habit of it :lol:

http://www.economicsjunkie.com/congress ... ebt-limit/

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-0 ... llion.html

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126166163113304249.html

so on so forth...

_________________
I don't to be in a club that would have Ireland as a member.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The "trouble in America" thread
PostPosted: Thu Jan 06, 2011 1:37 am 
Offline
Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Apr 19, 2010
Posts: 1425
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/more-b ... -increases
Quote:
More Bad News For States: State Revenue Plunges By 31% In 2009 To $1.1 Trillion As Spending Increases

The Meredith Whitney "ubiquitous state default" case may have just gotten another leg up. According to just released Census Bureau data, in 2009 total state revenue plunged by 31%, from $1.6 trillion to $1.1 trillion. "The large decrease in total revenue was mainly caused by the substantial decrease in social insurance trust revenue. Social insurance trust revenue is made up of four categories — public employee retirement, unemployment compensation, workers compensation and other insurance trusts (i.e., Social Security, Medicare, veteran's life insurance)." But the drop in the top line did not stop states from spending more: in the same year, state government spending rose by 3%, while that pervasive source of backstop funding, the US government, saw its grants to states increase by 13% to $477.7 billion. At this point it is safe to say nobody believes there is a deficit that the US government can not fill.

There is more.

_________________
I don't to be in a club that would have Ireland as a member.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The "trouble in America" thread
PostPosted: Thu Jan 06, 2011 1:39 am 
Offline
Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Apr 19, 2010
Posts: 1425
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/follow ... tanic-next
Quote:
Following Gibbs, Volcker To Depart Titanic Next

Poor President Obama may be left without a single non-Wall Street based advisor in no time. After his trusty sidekick Robert Gibbs announced earlier he is bailing from the Titanic, Reuters has just reported that Paul Volcker, the only man in the past 30 years to have to deal with the problem of pernicious inflation, is about to take a hike too. While his role was simple: head of the White House advisory panel, he did at least attempt to do some things while there, namely take down prop trading. Of course, he failed, as all prop traders are now merely masked as flow traders, and even worse, are sitting smack in the middle of order flow, knowing full well who is buying what, and allowed to build or reduce securities inventories at will with full inside knowledge. But at least he tried.

There is more.

_________________
I don't to be in a club that would have Ireland as a member.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The "trouble in America" thread
PostPosted: Fri Jan 07, 2011 12:50 am 
Offline
Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Apr 19, 2010
Posts: 1425
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ron-pa ... t-bankrupt

Quote:
Ron Paul: "The U.S. Government Must Admit It Is Bankrupt"

Any time you bring the two Pauls together in an interview, and start discussing items such as the debt ceiling, government spending, and monetary policy you know the results will be good. Sure enough, in this rare ABC interview with father and son, the sparks fly, and among the topic touched is the most popular story on Zero Hedge from yesterday, namely President Obama fabulous hypocrisy, who after bashing the debt ceiling as a senator 4 years ago, has bet the outcome of his entire economic policy on maxing out every single credit card available to him. Paul's response: "we have to face the fact that we are bankrupt and we can't pay our bills." Not exactly the kind of thing one wants to hear if one's name is Hu Jintao. That said you know the Paul-led interrogation of Bernanke will be something else, even if it is ultimately totally fruitless.



There is more.

_________________
I don't to be in a club that would have Ireland as a member.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The "trouble in America" thread
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 3:45 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Jul 26, 2009
Posts: 12783
Deepening crisis traps America's have-nots - Ambrose Evans-Pritchard -> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... -nots.html

Quote:
The US is drifting from a financial crisis to a deeper and more insidious social crisis. Self-congratulation by the US authorities that they have this time avoided a repeat of the 1930s is premature.

More subtly, Asia’s mercantilist powers have flooded the world with excess capacity, holding down their currencies to lock in trade surpluses. The effect is to create a black hole in the global system.

Yes, we can still hope that this is a passing phase until rising wages in Asia restore balance to East and West, but what it if it proves to be permanent, a structural incompatibility of the Confucian model with our own Ricardian trade doctrine?

There is no easy solution to creeping depression in America and swathes of the Old World. A Keynesian `New Deal’ of borrowing on the bond markets to build roads, bridges, solar farms, or nuclear power stations to soak up the army of unemployed is not a credible option in our new age of sovereign debt jitters. The fiscal card is played out.

So we limp on, with very large numbers of people in the West trapped on the wrong side of globalization, and nobody doing much about it. Would Franklin Roosevelt have tolerated such a lamentable state of affairs, or would he have ripped up and reshaped the global system until it answered the needs of his citizens?

there is more


Good article from AEP today.

_________________
Where are we GOING and why am I in this HAND BASKET?


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The "trouble in America" thread
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 3:49 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Jun 23, 2006
Posts: 22471
Location: Over Macho Grande? I don't think I'll ever be over Macho Grande...
BoyRacer wrote:
Good article from AEP today.


That's not an article. It's a few partial indicators patchworked together with some reference to AEP's own outdated experiences and a couple of lines of opinion piece at the end.

Tripe as ever from AEP.

This whole thread is ridiculous and more suited to the Piston in any case.

_________________
People change. Hairstyles change. Interest rates fluctuate.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The "trouble in America" thread
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 4:08 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Jul 26, 2009
Posts: 12783
The Unwelcome Guest wrote:
BoyRacer wrote:
Good article from AEP today.


That's not an article. It's a few partial indicators patchworked together with some reference to AEP's own outdated experiences and a couple of lines of opinion piece at the end.

Tripe as ever from AEP.

This whole thread is ridiculous and more suited to the Piston in any case.



Image

_________________
Where are we GOING and why am I in this HAND BASKET?


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 57 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4  Next


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 5 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Jump to:  
cron