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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:32 pm 
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jmc wrote:
A complete and total fucking fraud and a typical dot com con man. My guess it that he plans to sell on the carcass to some bigger fool just before it collapses. Just like Steve Case and AOL. Given that GM bough Cruise for $1B, which was nothing more than fancy offices in SOMA with some fraudulent vaporware demos, I can understand why he thinks he can walk away from the rubble of Tesla with a few more billion in cash and no jail time.

If that happens I suggest that Musk might still be happy that he dragged civilisation to electric cars sooner than it may have happened otherwise. That was his goal.

If they can get over this massive hurdle though, I believe they would make more per car than other manufacturers.
Kinda like the iphone. It's an ecosystem where he can keep selling you stuff.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:48 pm 
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He will do a Steve jobs on it.

Go off selling massive clunky solar panels for million a pop for a few years that nobody wants, invest in a VR company making cartoons that'll make billions and then go back and take over Tesla at its low point when it's making golf carts for hippies and turn it into the worlds leading flying car manufacturer.

You read it here first.


Last edited by taipeir on Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:51 pm 
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Braighni wrote:
jmc wrote:
A complete and total fucking fraud and a typical dot com con man. My guess it that he plans to sell on the carcass to some bigger fool just before it collapses. Just like Steve Case and AOL. Given that GM bough Cruise for $1B, which was nothing more than fancy offices in SOMA with some fraudulent vaporware demos, I can understand why he thinks he can walk away from the rubble of Tesla with a few more billion in cash and no jail time.

If that happens I suggest that Musk might still be happy that he dragged civilisation to electric cars sooner than it may have happened otherwise. That was his goal.

If they can get over this massive hurdle though, I believe they would make more per car than other manufacturers.
Kinda like the iphone. It's an ecosystem where he can keep selling you stuff.



Their mass production expertise sucks they should have got a Japanese partner back in for that. You can't really outsource car manufacturing very easily or they would have done it already I guess.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:26 pm 
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taipeir wrote:
You can't really outsource car manufacturing very easily or they would have done it already I guess.


You've got that backwards. Most other US manufacturers outsource the vast majority of their parts. By contrast, Tesla has a stated policy of making everything that they possibly can. This means that lots of things can go wrong, but at least those things are in their control. Not saying it's the right answer, but it's what they're doing.

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 10:57 pm 
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I didn't get anything backwards.

Unlike laptops or phones car manufacturers don't just rebrand and market cars that are completely assembld and tested by other companies. Some of these laptop manufacturers such as Quanta will even design the whole product for you and cost it and manafacture it all as a part of original design manufacturing service (ODM).

http://www.quantatw.com/Quanta/english/ ... ci_nb.aspx

On the other hand car manufacturers usually formally tie up with other car manufacturing companies to get access to production facilities and expertise or they are acquired.

Of course car companies buy parts from other companies , everybody knows that. Car parts is a huge worldwide business. Now electronics are a huge part of every car too.

But somebody has to design, assemble , weld, test and service machines that are very complex and come with a lot of safety regulations attached.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 1:28 pm 
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taipeir wrote:
I didn't get anything backwards.

Unlike laptops or phones car manufacturers don't just rebrand and market cars that are completely assembld and tested by other companies. Some of these laptop manufacturers such as Quanta will even design the whole product for you and cost it and manafacture it all as a part of original design manufacturing service (ODM).

http://www.quantatw.com/Quanta/english/ ... ci_nb.aspx

On the other hand car manufacturers usually formally tie up with other car manufacturing companies to get access to production facilities and expertise or they are acquired.

Of course car companies buy parts from other companies , everybody knows that. Car parts is a huge worldwide business. Now electronics are a huge part of every car too.

But somebody has to design, assemble , weld, test and service machines that are very complex and come with a lot of safety regulations attached.


My point is that most manufacturers are moving towards outsourcing more complex assemblies. Tesla is moving in the opposite direction.

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:47 am 
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Mantissa wrote:
My point is that most manufacturers are moving towards outsourcing more complex assemblies. Tesla is moving in the opposite direction.

i don't think this is a conscious move by Tesla - and it's definitely not appropriate when you move from high-margin/low-volume to a (nominally) $35k car.

more negativity here

https://mondaynote.com/teslas-new-car-s ... 5c72c955d3

The Tesla Rollercoaster has a few loops left in it, but the danger for Muskophiles is that they think they have shares in Apple but in reality they have shares in Next.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:07 pm 
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NorvilleBarnes wrote:
Mantissa wrote:
My point is that most manufacturers are moving towards outsourcing more complex assemblies. Tesla is moving in the opposite direction.

i don't think this is a conscious move by Tesla

You're not serious, are you? It's their stated policy.

NorvilleBarnes wrote:
- and it's definitely not appropriate when you move from high-margin/low-volume to a (nominally) $35k car.

Interesting opinion.

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:07 pm 
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Mantissa wrote:
NorvilleBarnes wrote:
Mantissa wrote:
My point is that most manufacturers are moving towards outsourcing more complex assemblies. Tesla is moving in the opposite direction.

i don't think this is a conscious move by Tesla

You're not serious, are you? It's their stated policy.

What I meant was, unlike say SpaceX, Tesla is not trying to compete on it's design and manufacturing capability, it's trying to compete on the product itself. I don't think Tesla planned to to make the Model 3 a success by re-inventing the modern car production pipeline (if anything they underestimated the effort to scale a half-decent one).


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 4:04 pm 
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NorvilleBarnes wrote:
Mantissa wrote:
NorvilleBarnes wrote:
Mantissa wrote:
My point is that most manufacturers are moving towards outsourcing more complex assemblies. Tesla is moving in the opposite direction.

i don't think this is a conscious move by Tesla

You're not serious, are you? It's their stated policy.

What I meant was, unlike say SpaceX, Tesla is not trying to compete on it's design and manufacturing capability, it's trying to compete on the product itself. I don't think Tesla planned to to make the Model 3 a success by re-inventing the modern car production pipeline (if anything they underestimated the effort to scale a half-decent one).


They've been pretty explicit about wanting to re-invent the modern car production pipeline though, haven't they?

I'm not as close a Tesla watcher as some on this thread, but I've certainly gotten the impression that their massive insourcing was a very deliberate bet.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2017 9:47 am 
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muirgheasa wrote:
They've been pretty explicit about wanting to re-invent the modern car production pipeline though, haven't they?

I'm not as close a Tesla watcher as some on this thread, but I've certainly gotten the impression that their massive insourcing was a very deliberate bet.

Hard to untangle Tesla strategy from their actions. I think Tesla assumed that the lower complexity of their cars over ICE cars would provide the manufacturing leverage, rather than a thesis that car companies were somehow "building it wrong" all this time.

The Apple comparison is a little tired at this stage, but the original iPhone was mostly third-party components whereas now Apple makes their own silicon etc etc, but they didn't try to build Foxconn in the US or sell a lower margin iPhone. There's elements of hubris in some of Tesla's decisions.

Ideally when resources are limited, you concentrate them at the point you can create the most leverage. They already have re-inventing battery tech and autonomous driving "nearly solved" but their finance costs mean they need to keep every position open, and keep adding new longer-term positions (electricity generation, autonomous cars, satellite broadband, trucks etc etc) to justify the valuation.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:24 pm 
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Quote:
Firms that burn up $1bn a year are sexy but statistically doomed

Five outliers - Chesapeake Energy, Netflix, Nextera Energy, Tesla and Uber - have collectively lost $100bn in the past decade

..
Consider Tesla, a maker of electric cars. This year, so far, it has missed its production targets and lost $1.8bn of free cashflow (the money firms generate after capital investment has been subtracted). No matter. If its founder Elon Musk muses aloud about driverless cars and space travel, its shares rise like a rocket—by 66% since the start of January. Tesla is one of a tiny cohort of firms with a licence to lose billions pursuing a dream.


https://www.economist.com/news/business ... llectively

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Sat Oct 21, 2017 9:13 pm 
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grumpy wrote:
Quote:
Firms that burn up $1bn a year are sexy but statistically doomed

Five outliers - Chesapeake Energy, Netflix, Nextera Energy, Tesla and Uber - have collectively lost $100bn in the past decade

..
Consider Tesla, a maker of electric cars. This year, so far, it has missed its production targets and lost $1.8bn of free cashflow (the money firms generate after capital investment has been subtracted). No matter. If its founder Elon Musk muses aloud about driverless cars and space travel, its shares rise like a rocket—by 66% since the start of January. Tesla is one of a tiny cohort of firms with a licence to lose billions pursuing a dream.


https://www.economist.com/news/business ... llectively



Quote:
Based on the record of all American companies since 1950, and the five firms’ present revenue levels, the probability of this happening ranges between 0.1% and 25%, using statistical tables from Credit Suisse, a bank.


25% seems like OK odds. Pity about the misleading headline, but I guess you have to get clicks where you can...

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:59 pm 
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Three and a half months after the car has been officially released, we finally get something that resembles a proper look at the car. In fairness, it does have a lot of nice features. The only thing I would feel uncomfortable with is the reliance of the touchscreen for basic controls.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2017 12:40 pm 
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Mantissa wrote:

Quote:
Based on the record of all American companies since 1950, and the five firms’ present revenue levels, the probability of this happening ranges between 0.1% and 25%, using statistical tables from Credit Suisse, a bank.


25% seems like OK odds. Pity about the misleading headline, but I guess you have to get clicks where you can...


to think that 0.1% of that $100 bn went to people with better tech than those mentioned would make a huge amount of difference.

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