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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:12 pm 
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Great idea! They want to stay in Europol but may not be allowed.

The universities want to stay in the Framework Programme for Research & Innovation (currently in its eight incarnation known as Horizon 2020; 'FP9' is taking shape as we speak but it's hard to know whether the UK will be in or what the total budget will be if they don't contribute). It's not that far-fetched to leave the EU and be part of the research programme, provided you pay in (even Israel can get EU research grants along with valuable collaborations). UK has some great universities so it would be a loss all round if they go - but they'd need to sort it pronto. If you were putting together a consortium of, say, 8 research centres to apply for a five-year Horizon 2020 grant you might not bother with the UK until there is clarity on the post-Brexit situation.

There is also pressure on for the UK to stay in the CE marking scheme. Again, this is strongly in their interests but also in the interests of others. It's not just for toys and electronics, the CE mark is how MRI machines and stents are regulated. You can get a CE mark from Notified Bodies anywhere in Europe and, for some specialist areas in particular, the UK has very good NBs. If they leave, other European countries would have to beef up their NBs in areas like medical devices. At the same time, the UK would have to come up with its own version of the CE mark - wastefully duplicating admin tasks and adding to red tape for companies selling into England ('British Standards' marked) and Ireland, France and Belgium, for example (CE marked).

The Curious One wrote:
It may be interesting to keep a running list of parts of the EU that the UK want to be part of.

I believe I've seen statements that the UK ministers want to stay in the following at the absolute minimum.

    European aviation and safety agency;
    Eurocontrol;
    European medical agency;
    Euro Chemical Agency;
    Interpol;
    Euratom;
    Erasmus

And the list is starting to grow rapidly.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:47 pm 
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I think that if the EU had offered the UK an EEC style of membership, where standardisation and trade where the backbone with minimal political convergence on subjects like internal migration and the "EU Army", the brexit vote would have never happened.

Harmonisation of standards was one of the great success stories of the EEC.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:11 pm 
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EU Budget Commissioner Günther Oettinger said the budget gap would have to be closed with 50% spending cuts and 50% fresh money. He suggested a Europe-wide tax on plastic products as a source of extra revenue. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42609057

Oi EU, leave our plastic alone


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:42 pm 
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dolanbaker wrote:

Harmonisation of standards was one of the great success stories of the EEC.

Read somewhere recently, FT it think, about the Brussels effect, where non-EU producers adapt EU standards for their products even if they never even sell into the EU as it's increasingly recognised as a new global standard.

The UK becoming another third country, adhering to these standards will still nothing new for its producers if single market access isn't retained.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:02 pm 
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dolanbaker wrote:
I think that if the EU had offered the UK an EEC style of membership, where standardisation and trade where the backbone with minimal political convergence on subjects like internal migration and the "EU Army", the brexit vote would have never happened.

Harmonisation of standards was one of the great success stories of the EEC.


A number of points. Firstly, Such a deal could never be offered to the UK because it is fundamentally not what the EEC was setup for. The EEC was fundamentally setup as a political union in Europe. This was never a secret and never hidden in any way. Quite the contrary, it was and is made openly clear.
The first clause, in the first sentence on the first line of the English version of the 1956 treaty of Rome which created the EEC makes this clear:

Quote:
DETERMINED to lay the foundations of an ever-closer union among the peoples of
Europe,


Secondly, even if this was not the case, how does one create Harmonization of standards without political convergence? In order for the standards to have any real relevance, the standards need to be backed up by law. Standards are enforced by EU law. In order for it to be practical in any way the law needs to be the same everywhere. Laws need to be passed by some type of political body. In the EU, that is the European Parliament which is directly elected and with legal judgements keep in sync by the ECJ. Without the political convergence there can be no harmonization of standards and regulations.

In terms of internal migration, again this was written into the core of the original Treaty of Rome EEC agreement which Britain freely joined.
Quote:
the abolition, as between Member States, of obstacles to freedom of movement for
persons, services and capital;


Finally, there is no "EU Army" and never has been. The Nice treaty largely forbids the creation of an EU Army. There can be an European Army that is separate from the EU but that contains the exact same member states as that of the EU, but that would be a totally separate beast all together.

Quote:
the brexit vote would have never happened.

Essentially what you are saying is that if Britain was not part of the EU then the brexit vote would never have happened.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:46 am 
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Farage open to a 2nd referendum now

https://twitter.com/5WrightStuff/status/951394851811221510


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:39 pm 
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:shock:
Grant him his wish...

What's his game here? Why would he want the risk of re-running a vote that was carried by 52-48%?
Hard to believe he has changed his mind on the whole initiative...


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:49 pm 
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Anco_reeves wrote:

How very Irish!
We love 2nd referendums, Are ye sure you're shure shure?.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:25 pm 
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temene wrote:
Anco_reeves wrote:

How very Irish!
We love 2nd referendums, Are ye sure you're shure shure?.

Well actually for the UK it would be a third referendum. The four freedoms were established in the treaty of Rome so they can't say the 1975 vote isn't the same.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:32 pm 
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It's not going ahead in any meaningful way. The game is up. Farage knows this.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:30 am 
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Brexit will definitely go ahead.
If I was a pessimist I'd predict:

1. No deal Brexit, as EU won't budge from their already stated positions (because I don't think they have time to, bureaucratically/ organisationally... the EU is not agile)

2. NI and Scotland electorates will become deeply unhappy at being forced out, as...

3. There'll be big impacts to the UK economy, for years while they negotiate other trade arrangements. But...

4. the English electorate will be ok at first, because, y'know, poorer but happier & no immigants.

5. However even that'll wear off after a while, and Tories-UKIP-whatever will lead the electorate towards a position of "you know what, even though we chose to leave the EU still screwed us over unfairly on the way out"

Like the Nazis successfully blamed the rest of Europe for the German woes in the 1920s.
(I'm NOT saying the UK will go anywhere near the military path, just that it's very easy to see the right wing English nationalists getting exactly what they want, and still blaming the EU years later when the economy doesn't recover)


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:22 pm 
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Anco_reeves wrote:
Brexit will definitely go ahead.
If I was a pessimist I'd predict:

1. No deal Brexit, as EU won't budge from their already stated positions (because I don't think they have time to, bureaucratically/ organisationally... the EU is not agile)



There won't (and can't really be) a 'no deal' Brexit. The UK will leave in March 2019 under the terms of a legally binding Withdrawal Agreement. That will set the basic terms of their exit, but won't deal with the future relationship. The UK will then have 19 months (or a bit less in reality) to construct the 'deal' around their future relationship with the EU. The UK absolutely has to have a deal, otherwise (to take just one example), their aircraft can't fly to EU countries. Or their pharmaceuticals won't be allowed to be sold in EU countries. Or cars made in the UK can't be exported to the EU. All of these things - and much more (eg financial services passporting rights) - will have to be negotiated. The UK choice will be between different types of 'bad deal' (in the sense that no deal will be as good as current arrangements, and the more access they want, the more they will have to pay (in either monetary terms, or in terms of closer alignment with the EU, and thus less freedom vis a vis the wider world)).


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:28 am 
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mortgageboy wrote:
Anco_reeves wrote:
Brexit will definitely go ahead.
If I was a pessimist I'd predict:

1. No deal Brexit, as EU won't budge from their already stated positions (because I don't think they have time to, bureaucratically/ organisationally... the EU is not agile)



There won't (and can't really be) a 'no deal' Brexit. The UK will leave in March 2019 under the terms of a legally binding Withdrawal Agreement. That will set the basic terms of their exit, but won't deal with the future relationship. The UK will then have 19 months (or a bit less in reality) to construct the 'deal' around their future relationship with the EU. The UK absolutely has to have a deal, otherwise (to take just one example), their aircraft can't fly to EU countries. Or their pharmaceuticals won't be allowed to be sold in EU countries. Or cars made in the UK can't be exported to the EU. All of these things - and much more (eg financial services passporting rights) - will have to be negotiated. The UK choice will be between different types of 'bad deal' (in the sense that no deal will be as good as current arrangements, and the more access they want, the more they will have to pay (in either monetary terms, or in terms of closer alignment with the EU, and thus less freedom vis a vis the wider world)).


Completely agree that all will be needed and will happen, by "no deal" I meant more of the UK can't/won't get a Canada Plus Plus Plus (Cakeist) trade and services deal.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:42 am 
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Ixelles wrote:
:shock:
Grant him his wish...

What's his game here? Why would he want the risk of re-running a vote that was carried by 52-48%?
Hard to believe he has changed his mind on the whole initiative...

Well hes out of a cushy job for starters. Maybe hes worried about his EU pension

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:56 am 
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Irish farmers take note.

Quote:
France’s president has crossed the manure-lined Rubicon.

In a shift liable to ignite a civil war in French politics, Emmanuel Macron is breaking with France’s traditionally ironclad defense of farmers’ subsidies.

If one thing was ever considered certain in negotiations over the EU budget every seven years, it was that France would prove to be the most defiant bulwark against more liberal Northern and Eastern European economies that regard farm subsidies as an unjustifiably lavish relic of another era.

But now even France is signaling that the Common Agricultural Policy is not the sacred cow it once was, and that a sweeping new approach is required. Britain’s departure from the EU is set to blow a €12 billion annual hole in the 2021-2027 budget cycle — a funding shortfall that is forcing a significant strategic reconsideration of the bloc’s spending.


https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanue ... eu-budget/

Didn't the British try to get CAP reforms for years with no success and now that they are leaving, CAP reforms are on the table? Funny old world.

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