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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:46 am 
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Farage open to a 2nd referendum now

https://twitter.com/5WrightStuff/status/951394851811221510


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:39 pm 
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Under CAB Investigation

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:shock:
Grant him his wish...

What's his game here? Why would he want the risk of re-running a vote that was carried by 52-48%?
Hard to believe he has changed his mind on the whole initiative...


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:49 pm 
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Anco_reeves wrote:

How very Irish!
We love 2nd referendums, Are ye sure you're shure shure?.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:25 pm 
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temene wrote:
Anco_reeves wrote:

How very Irish!
We love 2nd referendums, Are ye sure you're shure shure?.

Well actually for the UK it would be a third referendum. The four freedoms were established in the treaty of Rome so they can't say the 1975 vote isn't the same.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:32 pm 
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Neo Landlord

Joined: Sep 9, 2017
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It's not going ahead in any meaningful way. The game is up. Farage knows this.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:30 am 
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Brexit will definitely go ahead.
If I was a pessimist I'd predict:

1. No deal Brexit, as EU won't budge from their already stated positions (because I don't think they have time to, bureaucratically/ organisationally... the EU is not agile)

2. NI and Scotland electorates will become deeply unhappy at being forced out, as...

3. There'll be big impacts to the UK economy, for years while they negotiate other trade arrangements. But...

4. the English electorate will be ok at first, because, y'know, poorer but happier & no immigants.

5. However even that'll wear off after a while, and Tories-UKIP-whatever will lead the electorate towards a position of "you know what, even though we chose to leave the EU still screwed us over unfairly on the way out"

Like the Nazis successfully blamed the rest of Europe for the German woes in the 1920s.
(I'm NOT saying the UK will go anywhere near the military path, just that it's very easy to see the right wing English nationalists getting exactly what they want, and still blaming the EU years later when the economy doesn't recover)


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:22 pm 
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Joined: Oct 11, 2012
Posts: 697
Anco_reeves wrote:
Brexit will definitely go ahead.
If I was a pessimist I'd predict:

1. No deal Brexit, as EU won't budge from their already stated positions (because I don't think they have time to, bureaucratically/ organisationally... the EU is not agile)



There won't (and can't really be) a 'no deal' Brexit. The UK will leave in March 2019 under the terms of a legally binding Withdrawal Agreement. That will set the basic terms of their exit, but won't deal with the future relationship. The UK will then have 19 months (or a bit less in reality) to construct the 'deal' around their future relationship with the EU. The UK absolutely has to have a deal, otherwise (to take just one example), their aircraft can't fly to EU countries. Or their pharmaceuticals won't be allowed to be sold in EU countries. Or cars made in the UK can't be exported to the EU. All of these things - and much more (eg financial services passporting rights) - will have to be negotiated. The UK choice will be between different types of 'bad deal' (in the sense that no deal will be as good as current arrangements, and the more access they want, the more they will have to pay (in either monetary terms, or in terms of closer alignment with the EU, and thus less freedom vis a vis the wider world)).


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:28 am 
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mortgageboy wrote:
Anco_reeves wrote:
Brexit will definitely go ahead.
If I was a pessimist I'd predict:

1. No deal Brexit, as EU won't budge from their already stated positions (because I don't think they have time to, bureaucratically/ organisationally... the EU is not agile)



There won't (and can't really be) a 'no deal' Brexit. The UK will leave in March 2019 under the terms of a legally binding Withdrawal Agreement. That will set the basic terms of their exit, but won't deal with the future relationship. The UK will then have 19 months (or a bit less in reality) to construct the 'deal' around their future relationship with the EU. The UK absolutely has to have a deal, otherwise (to take just one example), their aircraft can't fly to EU countries. Or their pharmaceuticals won't be allowed to be sold in EU countries. Or cars made in the UK can't be exported to the EU. All of these things - and much more (eg financial services passporting rights) - will have to be negotiated. The UK choice will be between different types of 'bad deal' (in the sense that no deal will be as good as current arrangements, and the more access they want, the more they will have to pay (in either monetary terms, or in terms of closer alignment with the EU, and thus less freedom vis a vis the wider world)).


Completely agree that all will be needed and will happen, by "no deal" I meant more of the UK can't/won't get a Canada Plus Plus Plus (Cakeist) trade and services deal.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:42 am 
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Posts: 1897
Ixelles wrote:
:shock:
Grant him his wish...

What's his game here? Why would he want the risk of re-running a vote that was carried by 52-48%?
Hard to believe he has changed his mind on the whole initiative...

Well hes out of a cushy job for starters. Maybe hes worried about his EU pension

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:56 am 
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Too Big to Fail

Joined: May 18, 2009
Posts: 4158
Irish farmers take note.

Quote:
France’s president has crossed the manure-lined Rubicon.

In a shift liable to ignite a civil war in French politics, Emmanuel Macron is breaking with France’s traditionally ironclad defense of farmers’ subsidies.

If one thing was ever considered certain in negotiations over the EU budget every seven years, it was that France would prove to be the most defiant bulwark against more liberal Northern and Eastern European economies that regard farm subsidies as an unjustifiably lavish relic of another era.

But now even France is signaling that the Common Agricultural Policy is not the sacred cow it once was, and that a sweeping new approach is required. Britain’s departure from the EU is set to blow a €12 billion annual hole in the 2021-2027 budget cycle — a funding shortfall that is forcing a significant strategic reconsideration of the bloc’s spending.


https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanue ... eu-budget/

Didn't the British try to get CAP reforms for years with no success and now that they are leaving, CAP reforms are on the table? Funny old world.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:43 pm 
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Mossy_Heneberry wrote:
Didn't the British try to get CAP reforms for years with no success and now that they are leaving, CAP reforms are on the table? Funny old world.

Yes and no. They tried to get CAP changed to reward larger farmers more versus smaller ones (support for production). The UK market has more larger farmers... largely they were successful in their aims.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:55 pm 
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Joined: Sep 29, 2010
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yoganmahew wrote:
Mossy_Heneberry wrote:
Didn't the British try to get CAP reforms for years with no success and now that they are leaving, CAP reforms are on the table? Funny old world.

Yes and no. They tried to get CAP changed to reward larger farmers more versus smaller ones (support for production). The UK market has more larger farmers... largely they were successful in their aims.

They also got a hefty rebate because agriculture is less important.


In an ironic note Brexiteer James Dyson of overpriced vacuum fame wants the UK to replicate the subsidies his farm gets from Brussels...

http://www.fwi.co.uk/news/brexiteer-dys ... sidies.htm


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Jan 14, 2018 7:49 pm 
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Location: London, innit
The Guardian wrote:
Owen Smith, the shadow Northern Ireland secretary, has waded into the row about Labour’s Brexit stance, warning the return of border posts in Northern Ireland will be unavoidable without the UK “effectively retaining membership of the single market and the customs union”.

Jeremy Corbyn expressed renewed scepticism about some aspects of the single market on Sunday, and repeated his assertion that it is not possible to remain inside the single market without being a member of the European Union.

Smith said: “I find that slightly puzzling, because it is clearly possible for us to be outside the EU and inside the single market, as is Norway and other countries.”


Corbyn really is as thick as mince, and some Irish dopes think he's a friend


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:02 pm 
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Can Corbyn survive the Brexit climbdown. A want to be PM who is pro Brexit will be lonely in the face of the populist revolt, led by Blairites to halt Brexit.

14 and a half months now. Apparently


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:00 am 
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Joined: Apr 4, 2010
Posts: 4651
Mossy_Heneberry wrote:
Funny old world.


It certainly is. All the Brexiteers, particularly the neo-Thatcherite wing of the Tories (Fox, Gove, et al.), are now determined to leave the single market and they reserve some of their greatest ire for it, which is conspicuously odd, given that the single market in its current state, with uniform standards and regulations and free movement of services and capital, is the one and only element of the EU for which the British can claim a significant portion of the credit, it being instigated in large part by the Blessed Margaret of their fond memory.
Having created it, they now want to disown the one remarkably successful thing that they made in their own image. Talk about babies and bathwater...

As you say, it's a funny old world. :?

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Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations
Book I, Chapter X, Part II,


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