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 Post subject: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 08, 2016 7:30 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 08, 2016 10:32 pm 
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If there has to be a vote by parliament to trigger Article 50, how do you think that would play out? Would it have to go to both the Commons & Lords?

Do you think Labour will remain a pro-EU party into the future? What bits of it are left at least?


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Jul 09, 2016 6:13 am 
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Here's how it will play out .

6-12 months of phony war where everyone sees what's on offer.

A framework exit agreement reached Spring European Council 2018. Very, very like EEA but not called that. Concessions on migration and budget contributions. Probably no Article 50 triggered.

Parliament insists deal is put to British people summer 2018 . PM May campaigns every weakly for exit on negotiated terms. Narrow loss, UK stays in.

Please return in exactly 2 years time to see if I am wrong .


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Jul 09, 2016 7:33 am 
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Skippy 3 wrote:
Here's how it will play out .

6-12 months of phony war where everyone sees what's on offer.

A framework exit agreement reached Spring European Council 2018. Very, very like EEA but not called that. Concessions on migration and budget contributions. Probably no Article 50 triggered.

Parliament insists deal is put to British people summer 2018 . PM May campaigns every weakly for exit on negotiated terms. Narrow loss, UK stays in.

Please return in exactly 2 years time to see if I am wrong .


Hmmm.

Trump or Clinton??

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Jul 09, 2016 9:53 am 
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Trump looked like value at 5/1.

Not so sure anymore at 5/4.

TBH it probably comes down to 5 or 6 swing states. TBH I don't follow it closely enough to call.

Nate Silver of 538 says it is also too soon until there are enough polls in these key states.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ele ... ame-thing/


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Jul 09, 2016 10:55 am 
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LOL this made my day

Bitcoin is now less volatile than the British Pound
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ency-chart

:D


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Jul 09, 2016 11:37 am 
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Skippy 3 wrote:
Trump looked like value at 5/1.

Not so sure anymore at 5/4.


Donald is close to 4/1 on betfair, nothing like 5/4 (thankfully!)

(4/1 is a 20% probability, pretty low in a two horse race).

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Jul 09, 2016 11:50 am 
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Daniel Plainview wrote:
Skippy 3 wrote:
Trump looked like value at 5/1.

Not so sure anymore at 5/4.


Donald is close to 4/1 on betfair, nothing like 5/4 (thankfully!)

(4/1 is a 20% probability, pretty low in a two horse race).


Lower than 538 gives him even. Good odds.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Jul 09, 2016 12:52 pm 
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Great, my wife and I have been lining up a move to the UK for a three year stint. We'll go ahead with it as things have already been set up but on the plus side our purchasing power has been boosted by the sterling drop but on the other hand it may save us more to rent than buy if their market is going Chernobyl!

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Jul 09, 2016 3:42 pm 
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Mantissa wrote:
Daniel Plainview wrote:
Skippy 3 wrote:
Trump looked like value at 5/1.

Not so sure anymore at 5/4.


Donald is close to 4/1 on betfair, nothing like 5/4 (thankfully!)

(4/1 is a 20% probability, pretty low in a two horse race).


Lower than 538 gives him even. Good odds.


Pretty much inline when you adjust for slippage....

Image

he hasn't got a fcking hope

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Jul 09, 2016 3:48 pm 
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Daniel Plainview wrote:

Image

he hasn't got a fcking hope



They were the same initial odds for Brexit.
What Trump and Brexit have in common is that people likely to vote for either risk being called 'racist' if they openly admit to it.

So they shut up.
Until casting their ballots.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Jul 09, 2016 4:05 pm 
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Skippy 3 wrote:
Here's how it will play out .

6-12 months of phony war where everyone sees what's on offer.

A framework exit agreement reached Spring European Council 2018. Very, very like EEA but not called that. Concessions on migration and budget contributions. Probably no Article 50 triggered.

Parliament insists deal is put to British people summer 2018 . PM May campaigns every weakly for exit on negotiated terms. Narrow loss, UK stays in.

Please return in exactly 2 years time to see if I am wrong .

I was under the impression that negotiations couldn't even begin, let alone an agreement be reached, before Article 50 is triggered. I imagine the EU will be pressing for it to happen as soon as the new PM is in place, i.e. October at the latest. The Brits might string it out to January, but no further. Shouldn't take much more than two months to see if I am wrong. :D

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Jul 09, 2016 4:07 pm 
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mr_anderson wrote:
Daniel Plainview wrote:

Image

he hasn't got a fcking hope


They were the same initial odds for Brexit.
What Trump and Brexit have in common is that people likely to vote for either risk being called 'racist' if they openly admit to it.

So they shut up.
Until casting their ballots.


Disagree, electoral college is different to a referendum -- on popular vote Trump might be closer, but not on the electoral college. He's a complete fcking moron and that becomes clearer with every week, Hillary will eat him in the debates. Read one piece last week that thought he could quit if the debates are humiliating and he thinks he'll get decimated in November.... that that is even a possibility shows how weak a character he actually is.

I remember the right-wing-loons on this forum four years ago talking confidently about Romney winning... well he was crushed, fully expect the same again.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Jul 09, 2016 4:08 pm 
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ps200306 wrote:
Skippy 3 wrote:
Here's how it will play out .

6-12 months of phony war where everyone sees what's on offer.

A framework exit agreement reached Spring European Council 2018. Very, very like EEA but not called that. Concessions on migration and budget contributions. Probably no Article 50 triggered.

Parliament insists deal is put to British people summer 2018 . PM May campaigns every weakly for exit on negotiated terms. Narrow loss, UK stays in.

Please return in exactly 2 years time to see if I am wrong .

I was under the impression that negotiations couldn't even begin, let alone an agreement be reached, before Article 50 is triggered. I imagine the EU will be pressing for it to happen as soon as the new PM is in place, i.e. October at the latest. The Brits might string it out to January, but no further. Shouldn't take much more than two months to see if I am wrong. :D


There are opinions out there now that EU will not want it triggered until after French elections next May (I believe)... not sure how accurate those rumblings are, but if we get to next Summer without an Article 50 activation, then there's plenty of fudge to justify a second referendum and Remain would win that in style.

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(i.e. company profits are directly fed, in part, by government deficits)

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As confirmed by the Bank of England


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Jul 09, 2016 7:54 pm 
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mr_anderson wrote:
They were the same initial odds for Brexit.
What Trump and Brexit have in common is that people likely to vote for either risk being called 'racist' if they openly admit to it.

So they shut up.
Until casting their ballots.


Brexit seems like a bad thing for Trump, really. By November, the UK is likely to be an object lesson in the downsides of voting for the wacky anti-establishment option that wants to break things.


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