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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:00 am 
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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Nov 18, 2017 10:55 pm 
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https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-co ... ad-brexit/

Very interesting stuff from Tony Connolly.

I actually think we might be lucky that the North's institutions are not up and running. And also that we're so far away from the marching season.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 1:30 pm 
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Very intetesting to follow this development.
There are two scenarios that present themselves to me.

1. The Hong kong solution. Two jurisdictions in the UK. NI keeps euro regulations and becomes a sort of bridge to europe from uk.
Border down the irish sea.favoured by the republic.

2. A hard border in ireland. A natural result of uk stance of pulling out of customs union.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:45 pm 
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Hypothetical question.

If there is a "Hard brexit" with no agreements in place.

Who would impose the "hard border" and why?

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 4:57 pm 
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dolanbaker wrote:
Hypothetical question.

If there is a "Hard brexit" with no agreements in place.

Who would impose the "hard border" and why?

In a hard brexit situation we won't know who the UK let's in, the CTA is not a binding agreement with any governing accountable framework. The UK could up non-EU migration to cover essential gaps in food production and healthcare. I think I read that nearly all the vets monitoring the meat and dairy industry are EU immigrants for instance; UK vets preferring the fluffy and horsy end of the business. We'll need to guard our agri exports against standards being dropped in the UK and northern Ireland.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:17 pm 
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catbear wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:
Hypothetical question.

If there is a "Hard brexit" with no agreements in place.

Who would impose the "hard border" and why?

In a hard brexit situation we won't know who the UK let's in, the CTA is not a binding agreement with any governing accountable framework. The UK could up non-EU migration to cover essential gaps in food production and healthcare. I think I read that nearly all the vets monitoring the meat and dairy industry are EU immigrants for instance; UK vets preferring the fluffy and horsy end of the business. We'll need to guard our agri exports against standards being dropped in the UK and northern Ireland.

That doesn't really answer the question as to who will impose the border and why, I don't see the UK dropping standards in the agri industry as they will still want to maintain their export markets.

Everyone talks about the fact that we must avoid a situation where a hard border is required, but no one is talking about who will impose it or why!

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:53 pm 
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The British are probably figuring they will trundle along now towards a Norway/Sweden type border.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:54 pm 
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I thought it was implicit in my reply that we'd need to control our border against substandard produce and an undefined immigration regime from a renegade regulations busting UK.

Until the UK actually rule something in they are essentially heading towards the same relationship with us as Mauritania which relies entirely on WTO rules.

All the warnings have been stated since before the vote but now halfway between the vote and march 29 2019 no one knows or dares define the parameters of what brexit means.

It is not hyperbole to say that the UK is out of control.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 6:54 pm 
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catbear wrote:
I thought it was implicit in my reply that we'd need to control our border against substandard produce and an undefined immigration regime from a renegade regulations busting UK.

Until the UK actually rule something in they are essentially heading towards the same relationship with us as Mauritania which relies entirely on WTO rules.

All the warnings have been stated since before the vote but now halfway between the vote and march 29 2019 no one knows or dares define the parameters of what brexit means.

It is not hyperbole to say that the UK is out of control.

So, it would be the EU (republic of Ireland) that will be imposing the hard border, I can see that going down well with many in the border regions.

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Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild
"To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated": Elon Musk


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:29 pm 
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dolanbaker wrote:
catbear wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:
Hypothetical question.

If there is a "Hard brexit" with no agreements in place.

Who would impose the "hard border" and why?

In a hard brexit situation we won't know who the UK let's in, the CTA is not a binding agreement with any governing accountable framework. The UK could up non-EU migration to cover essential gaps in food production and healthcare. I think I read that nearly all the vets monitoring the meat and dairy industry are EU immigrants for instance; UK vets preferring the fluffy and horsy end of the business. We'll need to guard our agri exports against standards being dropped in the UK and northern Ireland.

That doesn't really answer the question as to who will impose the border and why, I don't see the UK dropping standards in the agri industry as they will still want to maintain their export markets.

Everyone talks about the fact that we must avoid a situation where a hard border is required, but no one is talking about who will impose it or why!



AFAIK, the UK are quite happy to leave the border the way it is. I think it's the EU that want to impose a hard one.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:48 pm 
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Mossy_Heneberry wrote:
AFAIK, the UK are quite happy to leave the border the way it is. I think it's the EU that want to impose a hard one.

So you think they'll let any person and any good travel to Britain via Northern Ireland?

Both will impose hard borders for different reasons... (we import more from the UK than we export, the EU as a whole exports more than it imports including people).

edit to clarify Britain for UK...

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:04 pm 
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yoganmahew wrote:
Mossy_Heneberry wrote:
AFAIK, the UK are quite happy to leave the border the way it is. I think it's the EU that want to impose a hard one.

So you think they'll let any person and any good travel to Britain via Northern Ireland?

Both will impose hard borders for different reasons... (we import more from the UK than we export, the EU as a whole exports more than it imports including people).

edit to clarify Britain for UK...

Any migrants using the NI border to enter the UK would have to first enter the Republic of Ireland, as for goods, well the UK version is often cheaper so any trade in that direction is meaningless. Right now, people go north to buy stuff that's cheaper than in the south.

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Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild
"To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated": Elon Musk


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:21 pm 
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Mossy_Heneberry wrote:


AFAIK, the UK are quite happy to leave the border the way it is. I think it's the EU that want to impose a hard one.

Are you for real?

You know the UK wants to leave the Customs Union?

The same one that includes Turkey and other non EU countries
Also worth noting some EU countries have areas excluded from the Customs union - Ceuta and Italian exclaves


Last edited by slasher on Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:41 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:31 pm 
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dolanbaker wrote:
catbear wrote:
I thought it was implicit in my reply that we'd need to control our border against substandard produce and an undefined immigration regime from a renegade regulations busting UK.

Until the UK actually rule something in they are essentially heading towards the same relationship with us as Mauritania which relies entirely on WTO rules.

All the warnings have been stated since before the vote but now halfway between the vote and march 29 2019 no one knows or dares define the parameters of what brexit means.

It is not hyperbole to say that the UK is out of control.

So, it would be the EU (republic of Ireland) that will be imposing the hard border, I can see that going down well with many in the border regions.

We're not the ones who voted to change the status quo, plus Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU so under the GFA is has the democratic means to return after Brexit if it doesn't like WTO standards.

The UK and us are on diverging paths, especially since joining the EEC. In many surveys UK voters distrust of their own political system matches their distrust of Brussels. There's huge disparities within the UK and if Brexit isn't seen to deliver a turnaround for many places then there's trouble ahead.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:40 pm 
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slasher wrote:
Mossy_Heneberry wrote:


AFAIK, the UK are quite happy to leave the border the way it is. I think it's the EU that want to impose a hard one.

Are you for real?

You know the UK wants to leave the Customs Union?

The same one that includes Turkey and other non EU countries


Explain why they(UK) don't want to leave the border the way it is?

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