Follow, retweet @dailypinster




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 225 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 15  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Warning that house prices may fall by 80%
PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 10:50 am 
Offline
First Time Buyer
User avatar

Joined: May 3, 2008
Posts: 83
Quote:
RELAND WILL see more demolition than construction of houses over the next decade, as the economy struggles to recover from the collapse of the housing market and the emergence of “zombie” banks, UCD economist Morgan Kelly told the conference.

In a presentation that drew several collective intakes of breath, Mr Kelly predicted that house prices would fall by 80 per cent from peak to trough in real terms.

“Construction, but not demolition, of residential and commercial property will fall to zero for the foreseeable future,” he said.

Low levels of education among those employed in construction – where worker numbers peaked at about 280,000 – meant retraining would not be straightforward.

Recovery will be slow: “It has taken us 10 years to get into this situation – it will in all likelihood take us 10 years to get out of it.”

Mr Kelly said he had been hailed as being extremely prescient as a result of his warnings in relation to the property bubble, when in fact he and a handful of other “amateurs” were merely stating what was obvious.

Sparing no blushes, he said professional economists in the Central Bank and the Economic and Social Research Institute “need to look very closely at their analyses of the Irish economy and figure out what went wrong”.

Mr Kelly said Ireland’s “reputational capital” had been damaged by “chancers” such as ex-Anglo Irish Bank chairman Seán FitzPatrick, who had been abetted by “buffoons” such as former financial regulator Patrick Neary, Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan and the Taoiseach.


Irish Times, Jan 13th
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/fin ... 20759.html


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Warning that house prices may fall by 80%
PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 10:51 am 
Offline
Of Systemic Importance

Joined: Nov 7, 2007
Posts: 5669
Woohoo!!!!

_________________
FF should disband


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Warning that house prices may fall by 80%
PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 10:57 am 
Offline
Of Systemic Importance
User avatar

Joined: Nov 7, 2006
Posts: 5308
Location: Cloud 9
I think maybe Morgan needs a sit down. His predictions are getting a bit sensationalist.

_________________
Landlord throwing you out on your ear so he can sell?
Need to save a few bob?
Then take a look at the bargain aisle
http://www.thebargainaisle.com


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Warning that house prices may fall by 80%
PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 10:59 am 
Offline
Holiday Home Owner

Joined: May 3, 2007
Posts: 315
I want a Morgan Kelly t-shirt

_________________
Image

We're gonna need a bigger boat.....


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Warning that house prices may fall by 80%
PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 11:01 am 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation
User avatar

Joined: Apr 20, 2008
Posts: 2613
Location: Under a baNAMA tree
whizzbang wrote:
I think maybe Morgan needs a sit down. His predictions are getting a bit sensationalist.
Maybe, but it's a welcome counter to the VI sensationalist crap of the past 10 years.

While not neccessarily accepting that Morgan is being sensationalist, maybe a bit of extremism on the bear side will focus attention towards the mean, and more realistic bears will be given more credence.

_________________
"Everything is connected to everything else" - Lenin
"Housing policy is like law and order. It brings out the idiot in politicians - and journalists." - Simon Jenkins


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Warning that house prices may fall by 80%
PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 11:02 am 
Offline
Single Home Owner

Joined: Sep 15, 2008
Posts: 109
Quote:
I think maybe Morgan needs a sit down. His predictions are getting a bit sensationalist.


I agree.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Warning that house prices may fall by 80%
PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 11:04 am 
Offline
Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Jun 5, 2008
Posts: 1499
I dont think he is that far off, 70% drop is possible...

He is probably speculating that the Government wont get its ship in order..

So far he is right on the money,

but as most speculators know, the minute you think you are right you are wrong!

_________________
What condition was the property in for each of the properties you are saying the bottom is in for!


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Warning that house prices may fall by 80%
PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 11:05 am 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Feb 1, 2007
Posts: 2207
Some houses will drop 80%

_________________
LEFT = RIGHT

Both trying to ride me...


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Warning that house prices may fall by 80%
PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 11:06 am 
Offline
Single Home Owner

Joined: Oct 23, 2008
Posts: 124
Last paragraph is spot on.

Maybe the rest is close to the mark as well.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Warning that house prices may fall by 80%
PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 11:07 am 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation
User avatar

Joined: Apr 20, 2008
Posts: 2613
Location: Under a baNAMA tree
Quote:
“Construction, but not demolition, of residential and commercial property will fall to zero for the foreseeable future,” he said.
Some houses will just drop 8)

_________________
"Everything is connected to everything else" - Lenin
"Housing policy is like law and order. It brings out the idiot in politicians - and journalists." - Simon Jenkins


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Warning that house prices may fall by 80%
PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 11:08 am 
Offline
Of Systemic Importance

Joined: Nov 22, 2007
Posts: 6073
I'd say he's right. Not all house prices will hit the 80% mark but at least some will. We've already recorded price drops greater than 60% in the higher end house prices on this site already.

Even the dogs on the street know the shit has hit the fan and is currently being dispersed. You can talk it up however you want but this country is in a bad place right now.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Warning that house prices may fall by 80%
PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 11:11 am 
Offline
Planning Tribunal Attendee
User avatar

Joined: Jan 9, 2008
Posts: 1429
Location: Dublin 6
whizzbang wrote:
I think maybe Morgan needs a sit down. His predictions are getting a bit sensationalist.


I think he's right. :shock:

_________________
A hangover is the wrath of grapes.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Warning that house prices may fall by 80%
PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 11:12 am 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation
User avatar

Joined: Oct 17, 2007
Posts: 2179
80% is becoming increasingly more and more likely IMO.

With the net emmigration about to become the norm.... and the imminent introduction of property taxes... it really will be the empties stoopid

The clearing cost for property may soon become what it costs to demolish instead of what it has cost to build.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Warning that house prices may fall by 80%
PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 11:17 am 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Jul 6, 2006
Posts: 2021
well hes entitled to lay into the gobshites who followed the party line for so long.

he is irelands peter schiff

_________________
Join me and together we will rule the galaxy as father and son


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Warning that house prices may fall by 80%
PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 11:17 am 
Offline
Of Systemic Importance
User avatar

Joined: Nov 7, 2006
Posts: 5308
Location: Cloud 9
Ozzy wrote:
whizzbang wrote:
I think maybe Morgan needs a sit down. His predictions are getting a bit sensationalist.
Maybe, but it's a welcome counter to the VI sensationalist crap of the past 10 years.

While not neccessarily accepting that Morgan is being sensationalist, maybe a bit of extremism on the bear side will focus attention towards the mean, and more realistic bears will be given more credence.


True, but I'm just concerned that he will lose credibility, that's all.

He may be right though.

_________________
Landlord throwing you out on your ear so he can sell?
Need to save a few bob?
Then take a look at the bargain aisle
http://www.thebargainaisle.com


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 225 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 15  Next


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot] and 11 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Jump to:  

Follow, Retweet @dailypinster



Pyramid Built, Is Better Built! - Latest Property Discussions www.thepropertypin.com