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 Post subject: MyHome asking price changes
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:48 pm 
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I have previously posted some recent asking price change graphs (most recently here) from MyHome in South Dublin (chosen more or less arbitrarily).

Since then I have run the numbers back to Feb 2011, with the results below.

The question i have for you, Pinsters, is this: what does it mean? Why has there been a massive increase in price changes since April this year? Before you ask, no they are not tracking volume of transactions or anything similar. Prior to April, it was unusual for there changes to amount to more than €1m in drop in a month. Suddenly from April it's mayhem, changes both up and downward gone crazy.

What does it mean?


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 Post subject: Re: MyHome asking price changes
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:53 pm 
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I notice a lot of the estate ages raise their asking by like 7.5% - 10% and then drop it down again the same day. I think this might be to get around the 1 refresh per day allowed on myhome.ie.
And then the house gets sent out by e-mail to people who have a price change alert for the area. I have seen this happen a lot recently where an estate agent will do this with all 10 properties they have for sale in an area.


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 Post subject: Re: MyHome asking price changes
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:56 pm 
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It's a "marketing tool" in a "sales campaign".

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 Post subject: Re: MyHome asking price changes
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 2:31 pm 
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padgo wrote:
I notice a lot of the estate ages raise their asking by like 7.5% - 10% and then drop it down again the same day. I think this might be to get around the 1 refresh per day allowed on myhome.ie.
And then the house gets sent out by e-mail to people who have a price change alert for the area. I have seen this happen a lot recently where an estate agent will do this with all 10 properties they have for sale in an area.


Yep good point, I think this is what some EAs are at. Also price volatility tends to increase prior to significant market directional change. Perhaps that's pushing it a bit though :?


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 Post subject: Re: MyHome asking price changes
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 2:41 pm 
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It might be the case that to normalize those results you might need to remove any properties that behave in this way. But this would be very time consuming I imagine. I know this is a relativly recent trick of estate agents as I have not seen it much before. If you search back a few weeks of recent price changes you will see it.


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 Post subject: Re: MyHome asking price changes
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 2:48 pm 
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padgo wrote:
I notice a lot of the estate ages raise their asking by like 7.5% - 10% and then drop it down again the same day. I think this might be to get around the 1 refresh per day allowed on myhome.ie.
And then the house gets sent out by e-mail to people who have a price change alert for the area. I have seen this happen a lot recently where an estate agent will do this with all 10 properties they have for sale in an area.


But you'd see the price changes in the history of the ad on myhome...and to be fair, there's very few ads with more than 1 or 2 price changes (the majority never have any) from what I can see


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 Post subject: Re: MyHome asking price changes
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 3:53 pm 
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Scratcher wrote:
Also price volatility tends to increase prior to significant market directional change. Perhaps that's pushing it a bit though :?


That's what I'm wondering.

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 Post subject: Re: MyHome asking price changes
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 3:54 pm 
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padgo wrote:
I notice a lot of the estate ages raise their asking by like 7.5% - 10% and then drop it down again the same day. I think this might be to get around the 1 refresh per day allowed on myhome.ie.
And then the house gets sent out by e-mail to people who have a price change alert for the area. I have seen this happen a lot recently where an estate agent will do this with all 10 properties they have for sale in an area.


But then why only recently?

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 Post subject: Re: MyHome asking price changes
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 5:04 pm 
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True it's a pretty easy trick I guess they would have been doing it all along but I have seen this done. I have also seen a lot of houses be put on the market for the first time and then within 10 minutes be increased in price by 10% odd, not sure why this is, maybe just errors.

Perhaps there is another more reliable reason for the massive volatility in asking prices, perhaps the disconnect between what a seller expects they can sell for based on media reports and reality.
Although this doesn't account for the high volume of increases.

Time solves a lot of mysteries.


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 Post subject: Re: MyHome asking price changes
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:59 pm 
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padgo wrote:
I have also seen a lot of houses be put on the market for the first time and then within 10 minutes be increased in price by 10% odd, not sure why this is, maybe just errors.
I've seen a good few of these.


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 Post subject: Re: MyHome asking price changes
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 7:02 pm 
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High frequency pricing? could Colonel Max be right? Irish property is the nexus of the global economy and the algos have arrived?

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 Post subject: Re: MyHome asking price changes
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 9:20 pm 
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My opinion, FWIW, is that it means the EAs don't know what the fuck they're doing right now and are increasingly mispricing things. Then they panic and mess with the price a bit.

Is this the sign of a market inflection point? Hard to say. Is there any research about this in other markets that anyone is aware of?

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 Post subject: Re: MyHome asking price changes
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 9:29 pm 
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My guess is that some vendors who want to trade up in Dublin see that prices are moving out of their reach and are feeling under pressure to reduce their prices in order to purchase ASAP.


Last edited by Coles2 on Wed Oct 08, 2014 9:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: MyHome asking price changes
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 9:30 pm 
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They're spoiling the stats, trying to create as much noise as possible to mask any underlying trends. The bigger question is why? Are they seeing marked changes in the behavior of prospective buyers or are they just tired of the non stop analysis and trying to shake off the anoraks?


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 Post subject: Re: MyHome asking price changes
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 9:48 pm 
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padgo wrote:
I notice a lot of the estate ages raise their asking by like 7.5% - 10% and then drop it down again the same day. I think this might be to get around the 1 refresh per day allowed on myhome.ie.
And then the house gets sent out by e-mail to people who have a price change alert for the area. I have seen this happen a lot recently where an estate agent will do this with all 10 properties they have for sale in an area.



OK, I did some more analysis and that's not it. Here's the histogram.

Image

There is in addition one property with 17 changes, which is Carrickmines Manor, Glenamuck Road, Carrickmines, Dublin 18. However this is a "group ad" for a block of apartments, so we'll allow it.

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