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Public Emotional response to house market
Poll ended at Sat May 02, 2009 6:37 am
Optimism 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Excitement 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Thrill 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Euphoria 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Anxiety 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Denial 30%  30%  [ 31 ]
Fear 44%  44%  [ 45 ]
Desperation 12%  12%  [ 12 ]
Panic 5%  5%  [ 5 ]
Capitulation 4%  4%  [ 4 ]
Despondency 3%  3%  [ 3 ]
Depression 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Hope 2%  2%  [ 2 ]
Relief 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Total votes : 102
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 Post subject: Q2 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2009 6:37 am 
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Based on general conversations with your friends, colleagues, or intuition what do you reckon the public mood towards the house market is?

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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2009 12:28 pm 
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Based on a conversation I heard yesterday on Radio 1 a woman was complaining that people can't sell their houses as there is no market so I think we'll be stuck at fear for a bit longer yet. Q4 after the second budget might jog a few pebbles loose that might cause the avalance.
Commentators thought the Irish had an affinity for property, that's nothing compared to the abhorance as to be seen as uncanny. The lack of savvyness is not crystalised till the loss (or reduced level of profit) is taken. I think there is a difference between denial and lack of acceptance that will draw this one out.


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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2009 12:31 pm 
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I'm torn between Denial and Hope which might be an expression of where we are with regard to dead cat bounce / bull trap.

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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2009 12:45 pm 
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I'm with TUG on this one. I voted for denial as I still think this is the dominant feeling but there are glimpses of both fear and hope. We've been watching this for a long time now and the progress is painfully slow. We're in for the long haul....


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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2009 12:48 pm 
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I think we are stuck between fear and desperation as the people who bought over the last few years realise they are stuck there forever and the desperation of cannys who bought to flip in new estates will suddenly find the developer has dropped the price by 30% just to start with or people are locked/ being forced into completing for properties no longer valued at 50% of what they paid.

The April budget will do more than shake a few pebbles loose it will along with unemployment increasing and the economy shrinking give the push onto the next stages of the cycle where we will move quickly into panic for a couple or three months followed by capitulation which will be a long drawn out affair as even people who want to buy will have trouble raising finance.

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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2009 12:49 pm 
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FB2 wrote:
Based on a conversation I heard yesterday on Radio 1 a woman was complaining that people can't sell their houses as there is no market so I think we'll be stuck at fear for a bit longer yet.
I'd consider this to be a symptom of denial, there is a market just not at 2006 prices.

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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2009 4:00 pm 
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Still firmly in denial.

High house prices are good, international factors, not going to sell for less than its worth, property always goes up in the long term, spring selling season, rent is dead money, smart money waiting to pounce, gotta get on the ladder, Ryanair are flying there next year, blah blah blah.

Whole country is completely brainwashed. It's like a cult. 3 years and the penny has not dropped with any of them, all still living in laaa-laa-land. At this stage I despair, I'm expecting to be still hearing the usual braindead bubblehead mantras from almost everyone I meet every single day for the next 20 years.

Utter catastrophe.

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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2009 5:12 pm 
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Sidewinder wrote:
Still firmly in denial.

High house prices are good, international factors, not going to sell for less than its worth, property always goes up in the long term, spring selling season, rent is dead money, smart money waiting to pounce, gotta get on the ladder, Ryanair are flying there next year, blah blah blah.

Whole country is completely brainwashed. It's like a cult. 3 years and the penny has not dropped with any of them, all still living in laaa-laa-land. At this stage I despair, I'm expecting to be still hearing the usual braindead bubblehead mantras from almost everyone I meet every single day for the next 20 years.

Utter catastrophe.

Totally agree. Good post.

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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2009 5:40 pm 
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I think spqr64 is a lot closer the truth than SW here. The denial is definitely softening. You only have to read the papers to see the tenor of commentary changing.

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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2009 5:51 pm 
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Bigby wrote:
I think spqr64 is a lot closer the truth than SW here. The denial is definitely softening. You only have to read the papers to see the tenor of commentary changing.

If the denial is softening then it's in spite of the commentary in the papers IMO. All I can see is the same old VI's drilling away just as SW outlined above.

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"People bought houses and bragged about how the value kept zooming up, and up, and up. In fact they didn't seem to be houses at all, but magic coin-shitting machines. It was all a dream, a dream in which you bought a box and lived in it, and all the time it generated money like a cow generates farts. Great big stinking clouds of money. And none of it was real." - Charlie Brooker


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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2009 6:21 pm 
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+1 with Sidewinder


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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2009 6:26 pm 
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I'm not talking about the VIs or the meeja, I'm talking about the herd. And the vast majority of people refuse to change their minds, are still stuck firmly in 2006 mode and show few if any signs of changing.

Yeah, people are starting to adjust wild bling spending alright, some are even making an effort to repay some of their credit card and overdraft debts. But when it comes to property? Nah. No change at all. The mindset is too ingrained - it's far too big a part of far too many people's sense of self-worth, self-esteem, perceived position in society, perceived way to get ahead in society, and all that auld bollocks. They'll cling to the property/bubble mantras to the day they die, penniless. That's the mentality that has been drummed into the brains of a huge chunk of the population, over decades and decades.

Reminds me of that old Unionist battle-hymn:

"Here we stand. We can do no other"

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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2009 6:39 pm 
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I think it is denial still in the lead,with a bit of fear coming up on the inside. The fear needs to build before people start to drop prices,I just can't see what is going to crack it unless unemployment really takes off.

Unemployment really is the key for me.With all that has been thrown at it,it really is astonishing to see house prices holding up as well as they have.But unless the cannies and investors receive a huge dose of pain that goes on for decades,they will never learn and the next bubble will be waiting to form.

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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2009 7:53 pm 
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Still in fear, I reckon.

The interest rate cuts are lessening the pain and drawing out the collapse. The Daftwatch chart show this quite clearly.


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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2009 8:03 pm 
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The crash is progressing slowly, Moved from denial to fear this time on the poll.

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