What I'm more interested in is what social changes will being NE entrapment bring about.

How many years of watching other people not in NE getting on with their lives will the heavily indebted tolerate?

I know a few in the legal profession up to their tits in debt who would pay a penalty if they could eventually walk away and start afresh. That gives me some hope for constructive change although I remain super-sceptical about that.

Most likely avoid bricks and slates.

IMO this reality will eventually lead to some form of debt forgiveness or else a re-evaluation of the laws with regard to private property/personal bankruptcy. As ever it will most likely be adopted elsewhere first and a few years later, Paddy will come around to that way of thinking.

Either that or we will all just fuck off en masse and leave the rest of you to pay for your own pensions...

The dividing line started earlier in other countries. I started work in 1990 and have never had anything other than a defined contribution pension. It will be near worthless in what it can purchase if interest rates are not above 8% when I retire (i.e. annuity rates are low). Having said that, I realise that and am saving like mad while there is a tax free allowance. I expect that will be severely curtailed soon and then the victory of the dark side will be complete... er,...

edit: anyway, I think it is a little unfair to blame the older generation for being stupid. Defined benefit pensions are as much a ponzi scheme (in a globalised world) as everything else (that is a ponzi scheme - take your pick).

"
It wasn't stupid thinking as long as replacement rates were the same as when they were born. I was one of five children, relations had similar size families.
Now all most of my nieces and nephews are in two kid families.

am 37 myself - am renting while sitting on a decent chunk of saved money, mostly cos I got out in time and sold in 2007. Helped that I dont have kids maybe....

we didnt ALL get caught

True, I'm 34, but never bought, just saved and invested in some more fruitful projects. Thought House prices were Mad in 1999.

Lucky that my rent was low and only rose once, ironically it was in 2007

No - we didn't all get caught. but a lot of us did. And the Pinsters aren't really representative of people our age

Somebody mentioned the idea of the boom primarily serving to transfer wealth from the younger generation to the older one. Old news. McGloomy had been saying that for years. I think he was talking about that in The Popes Children if I recall correctly and that was published in Oct 2005.

The transfer was only to (some of) the older generation that remained. Emigration rates are much higher for those currently in, say, the 45-55 age bracked than those in the 25-35 bracket. This also needs to be considered.

McWilliams just replied to my email - actually it was his second book "The Generation Game", published in Sept 2007.
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/the-generation-game

Fairly prescient given that it would have taken a while to write and publish.
Remember everyone esp. RTE (including the likes of George Lee) calling him a doom-monger ?

McWilliams was talking about wealth transfer as far back as 2001:


http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2001/06/1 ... nomic-bust

One simple method that would have slowed the boom and socialised some of the gains would be to have CGT on PPRs...

Socialising the gains? What kind of talk is that? That would never do.

The good burghers of Clontarf, Howth, Sandymount and Blackrock would never have countenanced such a thourougly unfair tax.

Do you remember Labour tried to bring in the property tax in the 90s? Gay Byrne launched a one man campaign against the commy bastards.

This dividing line was apparent throughout the boom when it was clear that anyone who had managed to be employed in the 1980s and buy pre-1995 was in a great position as salaries skyrocketed and interest rates plummeted. Basically you had a whole class of people who by 2000 had mortgages <1x salary. In other words, tonnes of disposable income and capacity to leverage their equity. I know one person who paid off her €45k mortgage decades early. Her income needs are so minimal she can afford to be a poet!

I am one of the lucky ones who bought in the 80's and was mortgage free by 2002. But it wasn't as straightforward as it seems. I can remember in the early 90's borrowing to buy basic foodstuff because most of our income was going on the mortgage. We were living from week to week, constantly faced with the prospect of selling or facing a lifetime of hardship. Then wages went up and interest rates went down and we were saved. But it could have gone either way and if had gone the other way would we have seen our losses socialised? I very much doubt it. For most people buying your own home has always involved sacrifice. In recent years things seemed so good that many people thought it was a painless process. Unfortunately it isn't and never was.