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Public Emotional response to house market
Poll ended at Mon Aug 03, 2009 3:52 pm
Optimism 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Excitement 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Thrill 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Euphoria 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Anxiety 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Denial 24%  24%  [ 23 ]
Fear 52%  52%  [ 50 ]
Desperation 10%  10%  [ 10 ]
Panic 2%  2%  [ 2 ]
Capitulation 4%  4%  [ 4 ]
Despondency 3%  3%  [ 3 ]
Depression 2%  2%  [ 2 ]
Hope 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Relief 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Total votes : 96
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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 10:17 am 
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where does the dead cat bounce figure on this cycle...because I firmly believe thats what we are now entering.

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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 10:58 am 
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I haven't voted, as I can't choose just one option to encapsulate the mood. I think we are in a large spread from denial through to capitulation.

I think that there are a lot of house-sellers out there who have realised which way the wind is blowing, and are capitulating. These are the ones whose properties are selling.

There are also the sellers who have their fingers stuffed in their ears and are singing 'la la la la'.

I think the point made by Ozzy about people knowing things are bad, but not quite HOW bad is very valid.

I also agree with Django in that there is a dead cat bounce going on. I think that this is due to a variety of factors - (i) a decrease in prices is making houses, relatively, seem 'cheap'/'good value'; (ii) it's sunny; (iii) boredom - people are bored of the recession - 'enough already', and are resuming their normal behaviour.

ETA: I just voted 'fear', which I suppose captures where I am. I am interested in buying, but the prospect of further wage cuts and increased taxes means that I am loath to commit myself to a scheme of repayments based on my current situation. I would also hate to buy now and see prices end up 100K down in a year. So, again, fear-based logic.


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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 11:05 am 
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grasshopper wrote:
I think the point made by Ozzy about people knowing things are bad, but not quite HOW bad is very valid.
Think that's probably ewd3 you're referring to:
ewd3 wrote:
There's fear because people have realised things are bad
and Denial because people don't realisehow bad.
but thanks for the plug anyway 8DD

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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 11:08 am 
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grasshopper wrote:
I haven't voted, as I can't choose just one option to encapsulate the mood. I think we are in a large spread from denial through to capitulation.

I think that there are a lot of house-sellers out there who have realised which way the wind is blowing, and are capitulating. These are the ones whose properties are selling.

There are also the sellers who have their fingers stuffed in their ears and are singing 'la la la la'.

I think the point made previously about people knowing things are bad, but not quite HOW bad is very valid.

I also agree with other poster in that there is a dead cat bounce going on. I think that this is due to a variety of factors - (i) a decrease in prices is making houses, relatively, seem 'cheap'/'good value'; (ii) it's sunny; (iii) boredom - people are bored of the recession - 'enough already', and are resuming their normal behaviour.


+ 1

As I have said before, whilst some folk appreciate the situation, others are still in denial and will remain in denial all the way to the bottom.

I am definitely seeing evidence of denial, fear and desperation, but not panic just yet.

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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 1:35 pm 
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Quote:
And another amen. Quote of the weekend - "You don't want to miss the boat, now do you?!" Gah.



Which boat would that be....Titanic or Lusitania...?

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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 2:07 pm 
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I think theres a mixture of denial and fear out there, buyers are fearful about their future, their job, their ability to repay and the prospect of negative equity and sellers are in denial about the market worth of their properties.

And so it shall remain simmering until something (or perhaps a combination of factors) causes the pot to boil over, which will be sometime in the next 12 months in my view.


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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 5:22 pm 
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swiss wrote:
And so it shall remain simmering until something (or perhaps a combination of factors) causes the pot to boil over


I don't think anything will boil over. I think its going to be slow and sticky all the way to the bottom. Different groups are at different states. My own parents and the girlfriends parents would all easily concede that you'd be stupid to buy this year. Which would put them at capitulation by my reckon (although since they don't have a dog in the fight its easy for them to concede). And some groups of people will deny it all the way to the bottom. And years from now they'll insist it was all the doom-and-gloomers and that it didn't have to happen and we could have had a soft landing if it hadn't been those damn doom-and-gloomers talking down the market and the fundamentals were healthy and so on and so forth.

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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Fri Jul 10, 2009 9:50 am 
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http://www.independent.ie/lifestyle/pro ... 91592.html

"As the property season winds down, vendors and agents are anxious to sell before things draw to a halt for the summer. This means massive price drops and opportunities for buyers, writes Yvonne Hogan

July and August are traditionally quiet on the property front, and a few canny vendors are dropping prices and taking other imaginative measures to offload homes before the lull. "

I mentioned this on Sunday that we should get the majority of the country out of denial once commentators tell the masses that the cannys are now the ones locking in gains.


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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Fri Jul 10, 2009 2:52 pm 
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FB2 wrote:
http://www.independent.ie/lifestyle/property-plus/the-summer-sales-1791592.html

"As the property season winds down, vendors and agents are anxious to sell before things draw to a halt for the summer. This means massive price drops and opportunities for buyers, writes Yvonne Hogan

July and August are traditionally quiet on the property front, and a few canny vendors are dropping prices and taking other imaginative measures to offload homes before the lull. "

I mentioned this on Sunday that we should get the majority of the country out of denial once commentators tell the masses that the cannys are now the ones locking in gains.


First time I've ever seen the term "canny vendor".... interesting!

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