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Public Emotional response to house market
Poll ended at Thu Oct 01, 2009 12:04 pm
Optimism 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Excitement 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Thrill 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Euphoria 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Anxiety 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Denial 24%  24%  [ 29 ]
Fear 43%  43%  [ 52 ]
Desperation 18%  18%  [ 22 ]
Panic 3%  3%  [ 4 ]
Capitulation 2%  2%  [ 2 ]
Despondency 4%  4%  [ 5 ]
Depression 3%  3%  [ 4 ]
Hope 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Relief 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Total votes : 120
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 Post subject: Q4 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Tue Sep 01, 2009 12:04 pm 
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Previous polls: September 2007 | January 2008 | April 2008 | July 2008 | September 2008 | January 2009 | April 2009 | July 2009

Based on general conversations with your friends, colleagues, or intuition what do you reckon the public mood towards the house market is?

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 Post subject: Re: Q4 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Tue Sep 01, 2009 12:07 pm 
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So far, the graphs progression has been spot-on.


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 Post subject: Re: Q4 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Tue Sep 01, 2009 12:10 pm 
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Location: Over Macho Grande? I don't think I'll ever be over Macho Grande...
Fear with a foot into desperation.

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 Post subject: Re: Q4 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Tue Sep 01, 2009 12:14 pm 
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Well, I just learned that a friend of a friend and his girlfriend just shelled out a princely sum for a four bed semi-d in south Dublin. Neither are in particularly stable jobs.I assume they would have consulted family and friends and received their blessing, and Im guessing in the case of family, financial support.People are still buying property.

Make of that what you will.

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 Post subject: Re: Q4 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Tue Sep 01, 2009 12:19 pm 
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Still denial in Dunshaughlin. 4 beds at 400k plus, new addition this morning in excess of 400k..


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 Post subject: Re: Q4 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Tue Sep 01, 2009 12:24 pm 
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The Unwelcome Guest wrote:
Fear with a foot into desperation.

+1 but only a tiptoe


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 Post subject: Re: Q4 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Tue Sep 01, 2009 12:30 pm 
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is september not q3 ( cough)

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 Post subject: Re: Q4 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Tue Sep 01, 2009 12:41 pm 
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Denial --- touching fear....

Asking prices still too high..

Politician telling us the housing mkt is recovering.

Lenihan telling us NAMA is to put a floor under housing..

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What condition was the property in for each of the properties you are saying the bottom is in for!


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 Post subject: Re: Q4 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Tue Sep 01, 2009 12:44 pm 
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FAUGH45568 wrote:
Denial --- touching fear....

Asking prices still too high..

Politician telling us the housing mkt is recovering.

Lenihan telling us NAMA is to put a floor under housing..


Except in Carrolls Developments. You cant have a floor in those. They cost xtra. :nin


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 Post subject: Re: Q4 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Tue Sep 01, 2009 12:47 pm 
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Denial (=sure won't it all be grand) is a national characteristic and so is (and will be) the stickiest phase of the cycle.


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 Post subject: Re: Q4 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Tue Sep 01, 2009 12:47 pm 
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Yep, it's going to be a Menolly Homes floor though.


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 Post subject: Re: Q4 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Tue Sep 01, 2009 12:47 pm 
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FAUGH45568 wrote:
Denial --- touching fear....

Asking prices still too high..

Politician telling us the housing mkt is recovering.

Lenihan telling us NAMA is to put a floor under housing..


Put in that context I think it's denial with a touch of optimism. People would rather believe this (courtesy of finnegag over on another topic)

Quote:
The data we have on the Irish market dates back to about 1971. There has always been a recovery in the property market, although sometimes it has been more vigorous than in others. In general, the commercial market has recovered over a seven year period to an average of about 88% of where it was in the trough. These figures are from the Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government. For residential property, the market has recovered in seven years to a figure of about 96% of where it was in the trough. I am only saying this is what that set of data has shown, but the important point is that markets always recover. The one exception is Japan. The reason the Japanese market did not recover was that they never marked down asset values. The banks decided to take the write-down figure year on year; that is why it took so long. They never revalued their assets. The other seminal work was produced in the United Kingdom where researchers looked at property cycles dating back to 1921. They found that recovery in the United Kingdom took between four and seven years and that the marked recovered to an average of about 66% of what it was in the trough.


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 Post subject: Re: Q4 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Tue Sep 01, 2009 12:50 pm 
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2Pack wrote:
is september not q3 ( cough)

I'm just "following orders" boss!

The previous Q's have set the template - I can but follow!


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 Post subject: Re: Q4 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Tue Sep 01, 2009 12:58 pm 
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2Pack wrote:
is september not q3 ( cough)


The 2 Brians have decided that we cant afford December this year so it , along with all of the joviality and extra spending that goes on have been cancelled.

Hence the goal posts on the q`s have changed.

Didnt you get the memo?


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 Post subject: Re: Q4 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Tue Sep 01, 2009 1:04 pm 
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Quote:
The data we have on the Irish market dates back to about 1971. There has always been a recovery in the property market, although sometimes it has been more vigorous than in others. In general, the commercial market has recovered over a seven year period to an average of about 88% of where it was in the trough. These figures are from the Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government. For residential property, the market has recovered in seven years to a figure of about 96% of where it was in the trough. I am only saying this is what that set of data has shown, but the important point is that markets always recover. The one exception is Japan. The reason the Japanese market did not recover was that they never marked down asset values. The banks decided to take the write-down figure year on year; that is why it took so long. They never revalued their assets. The other seminal work was produced in the United Kingdom where researchers looked at property cycles dating back to 1921. They found that recovery in the United Kingdom took between four and seven years and that the marked recovered to an average of about 66% of what it was in the trough.


This sounds like exactly what the NAMA guy from la sang jones was saying.

if this is the basis nama will be making it's valuation then it's the japanese route for us.
They are making future predictions based upon the shape of a graph of previous market behaviour rather than on an examination of the actual market or the level of overvaluation at the peak or any external conditions.

the foolhardy faith based belief that because markets have always recovered in the past they will do so within 7 years in the future is laughable when you look at the value of irish homes in comparison to european ones, our lack of control over interest rates, unemployment, the oversupply.

The scale of this bubble goes way beyond what we have seen in this country or anywhere else other than japan. Nama is in effect an attempt to do a semi japan and have a write down lite which will in effect have the same impact as the japanese scenario but leave Irish taxpayers on the hook.

We need to take as much of the writedown as possible as quickly as possible to allow capital start flowing back in and to restore competitiveness for new firms.

these guys just aren't looking at the problem realistically they are still in denial
which will lead to a massive flow of money from the tax payer to the bankers bondholders and property developers

exactly what FF want.

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