The data we have on the Irish market dates back to about 1971. There has always been a recovery in the property market, although sometimes it has been more vigorous than in others. In general, the commercial market has recovered over a seven year period to an average of about 88% of where it was in the trough. These figures are from the Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government. For residential property, the market has recovered in seven years to a figure of about 96% of where it was in the trough. I am only saying this is what that set of data has shown, but the important point is that markets always recover. The one exception is Japan. The reason the Japanese market did not recover was that they never marked down asset values. The banks decided to take the write-down figure year on year; that is why it took so long. They never revalued their assets. The other seminal work was produced in the United Kingdom where researchers looked at property cycles dating back to 1921. They found that recovery in the United Kingdom took between four and seven years and that the marked recovered to an average of about 66% of what it was in the trough.
This sounds like exactly what the NAMA guy from la sang jones was saying.
if this is the basis nama will be making it's valuation then it's the japanese route for us.
They are making future predictions based upon the shape of a graph of previous market behaviour rather than on an examination of the actual market or the level of overvaluation at the peak or any external conditions.
the foolhardy faith based belief that because markets have always recovered in the past they will do so within 7 years in the future is laughable when you look at the value of irish homes in comparison to european ones, our lack of control over interest rates, unemployment, the oversupply.
The scale of this bubble goes way beyond what we have seen in this country or anywhere else other than japan. Nama is in effect an attempt to do a semi japan and have a write down lite which will in effect have the same impact as the japanese scenario but leave Irish taxpayers on the hook.
We need to take as much of the writedown as possible as quickly as possible to allow capital start flowing back in and to restore competitiveness for new firms.
these guys just aren't looking at the problem realistically they are still in denial
which will lead to a massive flow of money from the tax payer to the bankers bondholders and property developers
exactly what FF want.