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 Post subject: What they said, when they said it. Quotes from VIs.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2007 11:33 am 
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I think we should have a sticky which logs what the VIs says so we can all look back in a years time and see who had it right. I'd like to start with Mr Declan Cassidy of the Gunne Reports Summer 07 (Published early July 07)

Quote:
All things considered therefore, it makes little sense to hold off
making a purchasing decision. The level of choice and large supply of
properties on the market at the moment gives the buyer huge choice.
The “kid-in-the-sweet-shopâ


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2007 11:45 am 
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Dan McLaughlin, chief economist Bank of Ireland:
Quote:
The year 2007 will be another strong one in terms of transactions. We are likely to see something of the order of 85,000 to 90,000 houses built again.

Quote:
we are in for a period of modest house price inflation - something in the order of 3 per cent per annum in 2007 and 2008.


John O'Sullivan, residential director Lisney:
Quote:
Growth levels will be single digit. We are predicting 5 per cent for [2007].


Ray Grehan, property developer Glenkerrin Homes:
Quote:
With the average household now 2.2 people, the anticipated increase in the population will lead to a demand for 45,000 units. This, together with the latent demand in the market, would suggest that the total demand for new units will be in the region of 85,000 units for 2007.


All from The Irish Times: http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/proper ... 53659.html


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2007 11:52 am 
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"Comical" Austin Hughes, Chief Economist IIB Bank (speaking on 12th May 2006):

Quote:
I think it is only slightly provocative to suggest that a more pertinent question is to ask why Irish house prices are rising so slowly.


Quote:
We expect house prices will rise by 10 percent on average in both 2006 and 2007.


From Finfacts: http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusiness ... 5814.shtml


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2007 12:09 pm 
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Dermot Ahern on Q&A 9th July 2007

Quote:
“It looks like we will have one more interest rate rise in 2007, but all the indications are that interest rates will decline in 2008″.


Geoff Tucker March 2007 Economist, Hooke & MacDonald

Quote:
The benign outlook for interest rates in the year ahead, with at most one more rise expected before the ECB will put rates on hold for an extended period

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2007 12:54 pm 
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November 2006

Last night IIB economist Austin Hughes told the Irish Independent: "The ECB (European Central Bank) simply doesn't have to rise rates any further." He said the current 3.5pc bank rate (which means at least a 4.5pc rate for borrowers) is sufficient.

"We've been guaranteed another one in December but that will be it, done and dusted," he said.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2007 3:08 pm 
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Quote:
As one who has been involved in the Irish property market for 40 years and has experienced every type of market scenario, I am totally convinced that the market is currently in good shape and that anyone buying now will do extremely well in the years ahead. There is no better investment than Irish property at present, and I believethat I will be proved right in this conviction.


Ken McDonald - 25 March 2007


http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/property-markets-no-house-of-cards-123542.html


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2007 3:57 pm 
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Location: Over Macho Grande? I don't think I'll ever be over Macho Grande...
My favourite...

"You can find extensive, informed, articulate, balanced and entertaining commentary on the impending collapse of the Irish property market here."

8/11/06: Brendan - Askaboutmoney on thepropertypin.com

http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showpost.php?p=312409&postcount=8055

I'm surprised he hasn't written into the papers asking them to hold off further articles until someone writes a balanced summary... :roll:

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2007 4:14 pm 
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God I love the rapid and easy access to the quotes of these muppets via tinternet. Lots of red faces and shattered reputations in years to come.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2007 4:42 pm 
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Mr. B Ahern
Friday, April 07th, 2006

The Taoiseach has said he does not see a great problem with the levels of borrowing to buy property.

Mr Ahern said there had been predictions of a huge downturn in 2005.

He added the bad advice given by so many resulted in some people making mistakes when they should have bought property last year.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2006/0407/housing.html


Last edited by Hobky on Tue Jul 17, 2007 7:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2007 4:58 pm 
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One of the EA's said in 2006 that the average price for a house in Dublin would reach €750,000 by the year 2015.

(DOW 36,000 remark ;) )

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2007 6:08 pm 
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Can we please post the link in all cases?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2007 6:21 pm 
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Thing Fish wrote:
One of the EA's said in 2006 that the average price for a house in Dublin would reach €750,000 by the year 2015.

(DOW 36,000 remark ;) )
I did a bit of googling and turned up this:
Quote:
70% [of property industry insiders] felt the average house price in Dublin will be €750,000 or more in 2015.
No names though.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2007 9:33 pm 
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Marie Hunt of CBRE is usually good for some quotes
Quote:
Marie Hunt of estate agent CB Richard Ellis doesn't see such a small rise having a noticeable impact on the property market

December 1 2005
http://dynamic.rte.ie/av/209-2095794.smil [realplayer required] (listen to this)

"The increases in interest rates that we are likely to see during the second half of 2006 are unlikely to have any significant impact on property market performance in the short to medium term. In essence, while interest rate increases will curtail activity in some areas of the property market, they alone do not signal the end of strong property market performance," CBRE Research director Marie Hunt said.

Jul 31 2006
http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/ ... topic=7121


Marie Hunt of CBRE Gunne also laments the unfounded negativity that is starting to creep in. "The second hand housing market is showing signs of price stablisation but some new home buyers are getting nervous because of interest rate movements. This is more indicatative of a steady transition to more stable condition than a sign of a crash or bubble bursting."

Sep 30 2006
http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/ ... topic=9384


CB Richard Ellis agree that it now appears that we will have to adjust to somewhat lower economic growth in Ireland over the coming years and the natural result is that property market performance will in turn decline. However, they say that we should not be entertaining negative speculation and unfounded worst-case doom and gloom scenarios when all that is being experienced is a levelling in the extraordinary pace of growth we previously experienced. They say that last nights programme should be dismissed as fiction and that a soft landing for the Irish housing market is still possible and is the most likely scenario.

Future Shock– Property Crash Programme Irresponsible Journalism say CBRE
17 April 2007
http://www.myhome.ie/advice_news/articl ... ws_id=2194

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2007 9:41 pm 
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Paul McNeive of Savills Hamilton Osborn King
[quote]
“Consequently, interest rates are now unlikely to peak until spring 2008, at 4.75%,â€

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Jul 18, 2007 6:59 am 
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[quote="Green Bear"]Paul McNeive of Savills Hamilton Osborn King
[quote]
“Consequently, interest rates are now unlikely to peak until spring 2008, at 4.75%,â€


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