What they said, when they said it. Quotes from VIs.

Thing Fish · **Posted:** Wed Jul 18, 2007 4:09 pm

done&dusted wrote:

Thing Fish wrote:

One of the EA's said in 2006 that the average price for a house in Dublin would reach â‚¬750,000 by the year 2015.

(DOW 36,000 remark

)

I did a bit of googling and turned up this:

Quote:

70% [of property industry insiders] felt the average house price in Dublin will be â‚¬750,000 or more in 2015.

No names though.

Thank you

from lexis nexis

Copyright 2005 Irish Independent
Irish Independent

June 2, 2005

ACC-NO: A200506023BC-B99D-GNW

LENGTH: 382 words

HEADLINE: AVERAGE DUBLIN HOUSE IN 2015 TO HIT E750,000

BODY:

THE average Dublin house price will hit the E750,000 mark or higher in 2015, according to 70pc of attendees at an Ulster Bank CBRE Gunne Property Conference yesterday. Group collective swizzling of the kool-aid. :lol:

Speakers at the conference included Pat McArdle, chief economist, Ulster Bank, Marie Hunt, director of research, CBRE Gunne, and professor Joe Durkan, department of economics, UCD. wonder if he scabs a few biccies off of Morgan during tea breaks at Belfield

While some property experts were more conservative with their prediction for 2015 of a E500,000 average, Mr McArdle said the higher figure was not particularly startling. maybe, if we find mircacle activity in the economy

"We have already seen prices rise very rapidly and many people feel this will continue," he said.

In the shorter term, 71pc of delegates expect Irish house price inflation of between 3pc and 7pc during 2006. A majority of 80pc believe that the construction boom will continue for another two to three years. make that one year

However, despite the upbeat theme, the conference heard there were some signs of slower activity in the first quarter of 2005, with 60pc citing factors that limited activity, principally lack of demand and labour shortages.

More than half felt that the number of new house completions would be down on last year, but not to any great extent.

In the rental market, more than half the attendees believed that prices would be unchanged in two years' time, but Professor Durkan felt that rents might fall again as house price inflation eased and investors decided to offload empty properties. Was this a coded exit sign for the professional investors?

In the construction sector, four-fifths expect an increase in land prices within the greater Dublin area. Over 50pc said the business outlook for the next three months was better or much better, while 42pc expected no change.

Planning delays are still the highest negative factor facing the industry, with cost inflation and declining demand sharing the second slot.

And, while developers cited inadequate supplies of zoned land, official figures given indicated a plentiful supply.

The conference heard that demand is being driven by the residential sector and a buoyant economy, with commercial activity and civil engineering relatively quiet.

Looking forward to the future of the property market, delegates were relatively evenly split over a number of areas where SSIA money would be spent.

Investment in property, at 60pc, was the favourite. Like arse it is being spent on property

Thing Fish · **Posted:** Wed Jul 18, 2007 4:21 pm

more, this time with the names. This is gold. It was Mr Gunne who predicted that prices would rise to â‚¬750k on average, head of ulster bank said that there would be no rate rises within the folowing 12 months. D'Oh.

Irish Independent
June 1, 2005

ACC-NO: A2005060184-B975-GNW

LENGTH: 461 words

HEADLINE: PROPERTY PRICES COULD DOUBLE

BODY:

PRIME property values could double in value over the next 10 years, a major "futures" conference in Dublin heard this week.

Speaking at the 'Next Decade - Next Challenge' conference, CBRE Gunne managing director, Pat Gunne, said that property values are set to continue to increase significantly over the next ten years on the back of favourable economic and demographic circumstances. The conference was organised jointly by CBRE Gunne and Ulster Bank.

Mr Gunne predicted that prime Dublin office rents will reach E915 per sq m by 2015. The property expert forecast that Zone A rents on Grafton Street will rise to E13,450 per sq m Zone A. He predicted that the price of a car space in Dublin will reach E220,000 in 10 years time, while the price of a large period house in Dublin 4 could hit E25m by 2015.

Mr Gunne added that there will be a significant change in terms of infrastructure over the next decade but that we are still likely to be lagging behind in European terms in 10 years time. He expects to see significant high-rise development in the city centre skyline and foresees a significant redirection in the Sandyford market over the next 10-year period.

He predicted that the regeneration of Ballymun will significantly improve this area of the city and that the development of Adamstown will set a new blueprint for development in the Irish market over the next 10 years. man the lifeboats in Adamstown

Mr Gunne was following in the footsteps of his late father, Fintan Gunne, who 10 years ago made a similar shortlist of predictions which have now proven uncannily accurate. what was accurate?

Marie Hunt, director of Research at CBRE Gunne spoke, predicted that the average price of a three-bedroom semi in Ireland will have hit E400,000 by 2015 while at that stage a similar property in Dublin is likely to cost in the order of E525,000.

According to her research on the Irish housing market, she said that there is the potential for oversupply in the Irish housing market over the next few years if developers do not act prudently and curtail the annual level of completions from the record levels of recent years. She suggested that the economy should be aiming to complete between 65,000 and 70,000 units in Ireland in 2005 to cater for inherent demand. danger of over-supply? was this another wink-wink moment to the savvy investors?

The conference was chaired by Ulster Bank head of property finance. Queried on the outlook for borrowers, Michael Madigan said that the interest rate scenario for the foreseeable future is "benign".the rates are still benign, but the sums that are borrowed makes interest repayments very harsh

"I would not personally see any interest rate rise within the next 12 months," commented Mr Madigan, Ulster Bank head of property finance. you might not see any rate rise, but Seasoamh O'Bloggs will see the rate rise

"If there is to be any increase, I would not foresee it until very much towards the back end of this time frame." you're about 6 months too late on your prediction

The seminar was attended by over 200 leading property professionals.

Con Power

flash · **Joined:** Sep 12, 2006 **Posts:** 936

Edel Morgan's articles in the Irish Times were favourites of mine. This one is from 26th May 2005.

Quote:

One can only surmise what the average millionaire will be able to buy in Dublin in another nine years.

A pokey one-bed apartment in the outer suburbs? Or maybe a townhouse on a new development bought under the local authority's affordable housing scheme? Will the semi-d become the preserve of the multimillionaire while only the super rich will afford the luxury of living detached?

http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/property/2005/0526/3863057227RPCITYLIV_26.html

Blindjustice BATONEFFECT · **Joined:** Nov 6, 2006 **Posts:** 4928

Quote:

The Minister for Finance, Brian Cowen, has warned prospective home buyers to be careful because house prices are not going to keep rising.

Mr Cowen said most experts were predicting a soft landing for the Irish property market. But he said Ireland was vulnerable to sudden economic shocks.

14th April 2006

http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/0414/property.html

Blindjustice BATONEFFECT · **Joined:** Nov 6, 2006 **Posts:** 4928

Quote:

The construction industry, to its credit, has responded to these demand pressures by increasing its output very substantially. Over the last 10 years, over half a million new dwellings were built. Last year saw the construction of a record 81,000 units. We are now building 20 houses for every 1000 people living here, compared to just 5 per thousand for the EU as a whole.

Brian Cowen 13th of April 2006

Addressing the Real Estate Alliance Property Conference.

Transcript here:

http://www.finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?D ... nuary+2006

whizzbang · **Posted:** Thu Jul 19, 2007 6:09 pm

Central Bank (Ireland)

Quote:

House prices are still likely to show a rise in the source of this year overall, despite the falls of recent months, the Central Bank predicted today.

It described the likely rise as "quite modest" but did not put a precise figure on what it expects.

http://www.businessworld.ie/livenews.htm?a=1777813;s=rollingnews.htm

Green Bear · **Posted:** Thu Jul 19, 2007 9:43 pm

Quote:

The construction industry, a critical indicator of the Irish economy, admitted last night that contractors across the country are now searching for projects instead of workers.
The Construction Industry Federation said the sector would be forced to revise employment projections downwards due to "a marked slowdown".
A leading economist said the warning reflected a reduction in both business and consumer spending, and predicted the situation would worsen.
Austin Hughes, chief economist with IIB Bank, said it was now clear the economic slowdown was going to last longer than a few months.
Employment in the construction industry grew from 97,000 in 1995 to 170,000 in 2000, and there had been concerns there would not be enough manpower to meet demand.
It was estimated up to 220,000 construction workers would be needed to meet national requirements, but the social partners will be told today that this should be revised downwards. This is due to a significant slowdown in construction activity in the Midlands, western and southern regions. There is still demand for workers in the Leinster area.
Mr Hughes said the construction industry was a bellweather of the economy and was further evidence of a step-down in growth.
Peter McCabe, CIF's director of business and manpower said: "We don't want to be alarmist but there could be a very serious situation in three to four months time."
He added that the Government needed to move forward urgently projects which had been given the go-ahead in the National Development Plan.

Slowdown as builders now seek work, not staff
July 26 2001
http://www.independent.ie/national-news ... 39969.html

Last night IIB economist Austin Hughes told the Irish Independent: "The ECB (European Central Bank) simply doesn't have to rise rates any further." He said the current 3.5pc bank rate (which means at least a 4.5pc rate for borrowers) is sufficient.
"We've been guaranteed another one in December but that will be it, done and dusted," he said.
"The evidence from the Commission is that there is no need for aggressive rises in interest rates."
There is, however, the possibility of one final increase from the cautious bankers for 'insurance reasons'.
"They would prefer to make rates a little too high rather than too low," he added.
The Bank of Ireland's Dan McLaughlin was even more optimistic.
He believes next month's increases will be the last. He believed rates are likely to peak at 4.5pc.
But he said some feel they will reach 4.75pc and stay there for some time.
He reminded home owners that the economy moves in cycles, and with the economic cycle peaking in Europe, so too will interest rates. The comments will dampen earlier fears that rates would reach 5pc or higher.
The Commission's report also signalled growing concern that further interest rate hikes could adversely affect the Irish property market.
It says: "Housing markets continue to be richly valued in a number of member states and, in the event of further interest rate hikes, a significant correction may occur."
Buyers
Mr McLaughlin said interest rates at 5pc or higher would adversely affect our property market, but said current rates will simply lead to slower price growth.
more>>>

Boost for borrowers as interest hikes to end
November 07 2006
http://www.independent.ie/national-news ... 67530.html

southofdub · **Joined:** Nov 8, 2006 **Posts:** 546

Quote:

Monday, 31 July 2006

The latest review of the property market from Bank of Ireland suggests that the average house price nationally will climb towards â‚¬400,000 by the end of this year. This figure is much higher than earlier reports had predicted.

The bank's Irish Property Review forecasts that 2006 will set new records for house prices, house building and mortgage lending, though price growth will slow towards the end of the year.

Economist Dr Dan McLaughlin said he was raising his forecast for price growth this year from 9% to 12%, attributing the acceleration in prices this year to employment growth, strong wage increases and rapid population growth. This would bring the average price nationally to â‚¬395,000, with an average of â‚¬532,000 in Dublin.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/0731/houses.html

southofdub · **Joined:** Nov 8, 2006 **Posts:** 546

Quote:

Friday, 28 July 2006 17:41

The Minister for Finance, Brian Cowen, has dismissed suggestions that the economy is too dependent on the construction sector.

Responding to new figures showing that the sector now accounts for 25% of Gross National Product, Mr Cowen said that Ireland still had a deficit in infrastructure.

He has also said that the budget in December will not be a give-away budget.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2006/0728/cowenb.html

jake76 · **Joined:** Feb 1, 2007 **Posts:** 880

Quote:

The smart, ballsy guys are buying up property right now
Sunday July 29 2007

SO THE sky is falling in again. The Irish stock market is apparently in meltdown, because of the housing market, which is also apparently in meltdown. The level of property horror stories is at an all-time high and everyone is tripping over each other to predict even greater gloom than the next guy.

Tell you what, I think I know what I'd be doing if I had money, and if I wasn't already massively over-exposed to the property market by virtue of owning a reasonable home. I'd be buying property. In fact, I might do it anyway. You don't even need money to buy property these days. Imagine if you walked into the bank and said, "Listen, guys. I want to gamble a million on the stock market. I have 100 grand myself, will you guys lend me 900 grand at really low rates and I'll pay you back over 40 years? In fact I won't even pay off the principal, I'll just pay off the interest." They'd laugh you out of it. But substitute gambling on the property market for gambling on the stock market and they'll fall over themselves to give it to you.

So why would I be buying property right now if I could? Well, for starters, property is good value these days. It's certainly cheaper than it was six months ago. While the official figures on aggregate surveys are talking about drops of two to three per cent in property prices, anyone who is out there in the jungle will tell you that it is a buyer's market bigtime.

If you're smart and you have balls and you're dealing with the right buyer you can knock 10 per cent or more off the price of a house these days. And that could well be a house that has already been reduced in price by 10 per cent or more in the last six months. Because while the big picture suggests a 3 per cent drop, the big picture is made up of lots of little pictures and you don't knock 3 per cent off the price of your house if you can't sell it. Individual house prices fall in substantial chunks.

John D Rockefeller famously said that the way to make money is to buy when blood is running in the streets. Buying into a boom is kind of a mug's game, and, as we know, anyone can do it. The really smart and ballsy guys are the guys who are buying when no one else is. The guys who made real money on property in Ireland were the ones who bought property before everyone else, when it was unfashionable. They were in a minority. Most people who bought property bought it recently, in a seller's market, for top dollar. Which makes no sense when you think about it. When you think about it, it makes sense to buy property now. Though of course some people say it always makes sense to buy property. There is no such thing as a good or a bad time to buy. It's always a good time to buy.

Anyway, there is blood on the streets, or at least an impression of blood on the streets, and it's time to buy. You can be guaranteed that's what the smart guys are doing. Every smart, rich bloke (the two can, in fact, occur in the same guy) I've spoken to for the last few years has been, to some extent, hoarding cash, waiting for this. And now they're around picking up bargains. Some of them might be waiting a little while more, in the hope that we haven't reached the bottom yet. But lots of them know that the trick is to buy and sell stuff a little bit too soon. Lots of guys have gone broke waiting for the actual top or bottom of the market.

Not only is property better value now than when everyone was barrelling into it a year ago, it also provides better returns. Rents are booming right now. It doesn't take a genius to figure it: right now you can buy property for less and it will yield you more. That's a better deal than six months ago.

Money is also still cheap. OK, interest rates aren't 2 per cent any more, but 5 per cent is still cheap money in anyone's books and everyone seems to agree it's not going to get much dearer.

This is not to say everything is rosy in the garden, but then you know that. The vultures of doom who have been circling for years waiting to be right eventually are having a field day.

It was another week of gloom and doom in the headlines.

After years of willing it, journalists who didn't buy property when they should have think they've finally got what they wanted. And they are wallowing in the mire. They also know that bad news is good news and a headline that's going to scare the crap out of people is more fun than one that just says things are still OK.

But reading between the headlines, a more balanced picture emerges.

For example, Jim Power of Friends First was credited with giving a gloomy outlook for the economy and housing last week. In fact, Power was relatively upbeat about property. Is a 2 per cent drop in the market overall really going to kill us? Is that not a soft landing? And did Power not predict that prices would start to rise again next year due to less supply, more mortgage-interest relief and stabilising interest rates? If that's what we regard as gloom these days, then clearly we're spoilt.

The Central Bank's version of gloom last week was to say that growth will fall this year - to 5 per cent. As falling growth goes, 5 per cent ain't bad.

Unemployment is going to grow too - from 4.5 per cent to 4.75 per cent. It's hardly the bad old days, is it? Four or 5 per cent unemployment constitutes practically full employment when you take into account frictional, structural and voluntary unemployment - the unemployment that always exists even if there are jobs for everyone.

And, yes, the Iseq is down 6 per cent this year, but balance that off against the 30 per cent it gained last year. The 6 per cent fall doesn't even fully cancel out its gains of last December.

So, you know, maybe the sky is falling in, but maybe you should think twice before you follow the Chicken Lickens of the media into Foxy Loxy's dark cave.

- Brendan O'Connor

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analy ... 47118.html

Open Window · **Joined:** Jan 1, 1970 **Posts:** 11536

jake76 wrote:

Quote:

The smart, ballsy guys are buying up property right now

Sunday July 29 2007

SO THE sky is falling in again. The Irish stock market is apparently in meltdown, because of the housing market, which is also apparently in meltdown. The level of property horror stories is at an all-time high and everyone is tripping over each other to predict even greater gloom than the next guy.

Tell you what, I think I know what I'd be doing if I had money, and if I wasn't already massively over-exposed to the property market by virtue of owning a reasonable home. I'd be buying property. In fact, I might do it anyway. You don't even need money to buy property these days. Imagine if you walked into the bank and said, "Listen, guys. I want to gamble a million on the stock market. I have 100 grand myself, will you guys lend me 900 grand at really low rates and I'll pay you back over 40 years? In fact I won't even pay off the principal, I'll just pay off the interest." They'd laugh you out of it. But substitute gambling on the property market for gambling on the stock market and they'll fall over themselves to give it to you.

So why would I be buying property right now if I could? Well, for starters, property is good value these days. It's certainly cheaper than it was six months ago. While the official figures on aggregate surveys are talking about drops of two to three per cent in property prices, anyone who is out there in the jungle will tell you that it is a buyer's market bigtime.

If you're smart and you have balls and you're dealing with the right buyer you can knock 10 per cent or more off the price of a house these days. And that could well be a house that has already been reduced in price by 10 per cent or more in the last six months. Because while the big picture suggests a 3 per cent drop, the big picture is made up of lots of little pictures and you don't knock 3 per cent off the price of your house if you can't sell it. Individual house prices fall in substantial chunks.

John D Rockefeller famously said that the way to make money is to buy when blood is running in the streets. Buying into a boom is kind of a mug's game, and, as we know, anyone can do it. The really smart and ballsy guys are the guys who are buying when no one else is. The guys who made real money on property in Ireland were the ones who bought property before everyone else, when it was unfashionable. They were in a minority. Most people who bought property bought it recently, in a seller's market, for top dollar. Which makes no sense when you think about it. When you think about it, it makes sense to buy property now. Though of course some people say it always makes sense to buy property. There is no such thing as a good or a bad time to buy. It's always a good time to buy.

Anyway, there is blood on the streets, or at least an impression of blood on the streets, and it's time to buy. You can be guaranteed that's what the smart guys are doing. Every smart, rich bloke (the two can, in fact, occur in the same guy) I've spoken to for the last few years has been, to some extent, hoarding cash, waiting for this. And now they're around picking up bargains. Some of them might be waiting a little while more, in the hope that we haven't reached the bottom yet. But lots of them know that the trick is to buy and sell stuff a little bit too soon. Lots of guys have gone broke waiting for the actual top or bottom of the market.

Not only is property better value now than when everyone was barrelling into it a year ago, it also provides better returns. Rents are booming right now. It doesn't take a genius to figure it: right now you can buy property for less and it will yield you more. That's a better deal than six months ago.

Money is also still cheap. OK, interest rates aren't 2 per cent any more, but 5 per cent is still cheap money in anyone's books and everyone seems to agree it's not going to get much dearer.

This is not to say everything is rosy in the garden, but then you know that. The vultures of doom who have been circling for years waiting to be right eventually are having a field day.

It was another week of gloom and doom in the headlines.

After years of willing it, journalists who didn't buy property when they should have think they've finally got what they wanted. And they are wallowing in the mire. They also know that bad news is good news and a headline that's going to scare the crap out of people is more fun than one that just says things are still OK.

But reading between the headlines, a more balanced picture emerges.

For example, Jim Power of Friends First was credited with giving a gloomy outlook for the economy and housing last week. In fact, Power was relatively upbeat about property. Is a 2 per cent drop in the market overall really going to kill us? Is that not a soft landing? And did Power not predict that prices would start to rise again next year due to less supply, more mortgage-interest relief and stabilising interest rates? If that's what we regard as gloom these days, then clearly we're spoilt.

The Central Bank's version of gloom last week was to say that growth will fall this year - to 5 per cent. As falling growth goes, 5 per cent ain't bad.

Unemployment is going to grow too - from 4.5 per cent to 4.75 per cent. It's hardly the bad old days, is it? Four or 5 per cent unemployment constitutes practically full employment when you take into account frictional, structural and voluntary unemployment - the unemployment that always exists even if there are jobs for everyone.

And, yes, the Iseq is down 6 per cent this year, but balance that off against the 30 per cent it gained last year. The 6 per cent fall doesn't even fully cancel out its gains of last December.

So, you know, maybe the sky is falling in, but maybe you should think twice before you follow the Chicken Lickens of the media into Foxy Loxy's dark cave.

- Brendan O'Connor

Sorry off topic, but how do you spell NOB is it with a K?

Mark · **Posted:** Sun Jul 29, 2007 3:17 pm

LOL

CelloPoint · **Joined:** Jan 31, 2007 **Posts:** 2924

This is a brilliant sticky! If I come across any quotes, I'll be sure to add. We should all be trawling for more of these little gems!

Open Window · **Joined:** Jan 1, 1970 **Posts:** 11536

CelloPoint wrote:

This is a brilliant sticky! If I come across any quotes, I'll be sure to add. We should all be trawling for more of these little gems!

I'm starting to think dedicated pages with picture of each talking head beside said quote. Perhpas we should have avatar size or dbl avatar as standard 64x64pxels or 128x128 pixels.

If peopel want to email me as many picutres as they liek of each talking head send it to openwindow@thepropertypin.com, I'll do a bit of searching too, then I'll uplaod to photobucket and then it shall be simple as pie to link to the same image for IMPACT.

We could have a new forum with quotes, a thread to each personality talking head. Yes it would add volume to the site but woudl be good for posterity.

Also talking to TUG I believe it was Jun 06 we launched the pin to little a-do until events took aa turn over at AAM.

Green Bear · **Posted:** Sat Aug 04, 2007 9:46 pm

Not a quote per say, but I thought it was apt as it sums of the comments of many bank and property economists.

What they said, when they said it. Quotes from VIs.

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