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 Post subject: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2006 1:00 pm 
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This is the thread kids.

Fire at will... :wink:

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2006 1:37 pm 
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http://daftwatch.atspace.com/

I am sure that most of the posters on this site are familiar with the above site but just in case here it is again.

Sobering numbers....


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:34 pm 
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Real Estate Developer

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I think a shutdown of supply is a way of dealing with an armageddon type situation developing. It won't be effective against prices falling 10-15%, some of which has happened already going on some of your posts on cache files for Daft/My home, and the Daft report.

Another point that comes up when people have speculated about a crash before, is that people will use it as an opportunity to move closer to the city centre. So property on the periphery really suffers the most. This may be going on already. Drogheda has over 250 properties for sale on Daft and Dundalk has over 110. These are big towns but imagine trying to sell your 3 bed semi D when another 249 punters are trying the same thing around town.............. :cry:


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:44 pm 
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Arfur - yer still going on about restricting supply!

Considering the property market in splendid isolation yes, restricting supply would keep prices high.

But.

The only way to restrict supply is for a massive reduction in the number of units we are building. We would have to halve this years production just to tread water. We're talking about laying off tens and tens of thousands of construction workers. This will push the entire economy into recession and cause a property crash anyway!

Actually, that's going to happen anyway. There is no way we will build anywhere near another 90K units next year. Maybe 70K. But that's still a lot of brickies, chippies, sparks, plasterers, kitchen fitters, roofers, glaziers etc. etc. etc.

Unless you imagine the builders will keep all these people on the books with nothing for them to do and keep paying them...

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Nov 11, 2006 12:38 pm 
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Arthur Daley wrote:
I think a shutdown of supply is a way of dealing with an armageddon type situation developing. It won't be effective against prices falling 10-15%, some of which has happened already going on some of your posts on cache files for Daft/My home, and the Daft report.


They will have to lay off thousands,that will cause a "shock" in it's self and only make things worse.Even if you could get some of the big boys to slowdown and their shareholders would go berserk the little lads will keep building because they have too !.


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 11, 2006 12:56 pm 
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Arthur Daley wrote:
Another point that comes up when people have speculated about a crash before, is that people will use it as an opportunity to move closer to the city centre. So property on the periphery really suffers the most. This may be going on already. Drogheda has over 250 properties for sale on Daft and Dundalk has over 110. These are big towns but imagine trying to sell your 3 bed semi D when another 249 punters are trying the same thing around town.............. :cry:


Drogheda from what i can see has a long way to fall,i've seen very few price drops so far but as you say inventory is seriously building up there.
I don't think the EA's have realised the new reality yet,the prices on the southside of the town are just crazy especially for the newbuilds, they don't seem to realise there competing with swords and balbriggan.Even though they definitely have been restricting supply up there,they can't operate in isolation to the rest of the East Coast.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2006 1:36 am 
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Location: D4 hob-nob..ex Dublin NW sub-district Gurraland
About that central bank report on overvaluation that was out the other day.

It was mentioned in paper(can't remember which one) that the definition of affordability by the CB in that report was something like a 40yr mortgage with 40% outgoings on that mortgage at present interest rates which is like an abnormal extreme in generousity terms!

It said only half of all households would be able to afford a house in todays climate!

Plus a 'cautious' 10% of householders would be in difficulty in the event of a hard landing whether thats realistic?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2006 3:24 am 
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gurramok wrote:
Plus a 'cautious' 10% of householders would be in difficulty in the event of a hard landing whether thats realistic?


surely a rise or fall in prices only becomes relevant if a householder intends to sell?

The most important single statistic on the DAFT report is that asking prices overall have continued to rise over the last four months. If the bubble has burst would they not be falling?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2006 3:46 am 
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Speculator

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Posts: 411
Sunday Business Post, 12th November: "Bargains in a buyers’ market"


Quote:
It has become a buyers’ market. Vendors are experiencing longer delays in selling property and estate agents have been quietly dropping the asking prices of properties that they cannot shift. In some cases those drops have been substantial, amounting to as much as 33 per cent.



http://www.sbpost.ie/post/pages/p/story ... qqqx=1.asp


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2006 11:38 am 
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Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Jun 22, 2006
Posts: 2918
Sunday Times 12 Nov 2006

Quote:
No stamp duty changeFRANK FITZGIBBON



BRIAN COWEN will make no change to stamp duty in next month’s budget, according to government sources.
The finance minister believes a cut in the tax would fuel property prices just when they were starting to ease. However, with stamp duty now accounting for €3 billion a year in revenue, it is also regarded as essential to Cowen’s strategy of keeping the budget in surplus.



http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2091-2449970,00.html


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2006 12:31 pm 
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[quote="madisona]The most important single statistic on the DAFT report is that asking prices overall have continued to rise over the last four months. If the bubble has burst would they not be falling?[/quote]
Accodring to bloke from DAFT on radio the other day Dublin leads the country by 6 months or so, he said he would expect to see the country follow. If by then Dublin is still falling then the figures as a whole will be shown to be falling.

As an aside a guy in the pup told me last night that the boom in Ireland is only getting started because we are the best nation on earth, a nation of entrepreneurs, in fact his mate started with nothing only 7 years ago and now has over a billion in property.
Naturally I will be switching to Bull immediately. :twisted:


EDIT: Realised the above shouldn't be an aside as it is the central theme of the thread, so there still is a fair bit of Bullishness sentiment outhere.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2006 1:10 pm 
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Speculator

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Posts: 411
StoppedClock wrote:
As an aside a guy in the pup told me last night that the boom in Ireland is only getting started because we are the best nation on earth, a nation of entrepreneurs, in fact his mate started with nothing only 7 years ago and now has over a billion in property



This is one of my primary fears regarding sentiment.

People in this country actually believe that buying and selling houses is in itself a form of entrepreneurial endeavour. A legitimate, bona fide, vibrant, positive form of economic activity. As though buying and seliing property actually produces wealth or creates something.

Of course, it doesn't. Nobody in this bloody country is actually MAKING anything. Who is producing the wealth? Who is making the stuff that we sell to pay for the houses we are buying?

People passing houses back and forth to one another is no substitute for making stuff. I wish people would understand that, but it seems to me they don't.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2006 4:26 pm 
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Real Estate Developer

Joined: Nov 7, 2006
Posts: 856
Chomp wrote:
Sunday Business Post, 12th November: "Bargains in a buyers’ market"


Quote:
It has become a buyers’ market. Vendors are experiencing longer delays in selling property and estate agents have been quietly dropping the asking prices of properties that they cannot shift. In some cases those drops have been substantial, amounting to as much as 33 per cent.



http://www.sbpost.ie/post/pages/p/story ... qqqx=1.asp


I love the quote from the Sherry Fitz chief,

Michael Grehan, managing director of the Sherry FitzGerald Group, believes this is the best time to buy in five years.

What a liar! you could buy for half the price 5 years ago!


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2006 6:41 pm 
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Location: Location, Location.
Quote:
This is one of my primary fears regarding sentiment.

People in this country actually believe that buying and selling houses is in itself a form of entrepreneurial endeavour. A legitimate, bona fide, vibrant, positive form of economic activity. As though buying and seliing property actually produces wealth or creates something.

Of course, it doesn't. Nobody in this bloody country is actually MAKING anything. Who is producing the wealth? Who is making the stuff that we sell to pay for the houses we are buying?

People passing houses back and forth to one another is no substitute for making stuff. I wish people would understand that, but it seems to me they don't.


Get with the new era, you've been listening to your grandparents and their advice is so 20th century, In the Ireland of celtic tiger II, debt is the new wealth, prudence is foolishness, saving is poverty and excess consumption is your civil right. :lol:

Quote:
There are 600 US firms in Ireland.
They employ 100,000 people.
Indirect employment amounts to another 225,000.
Excluding the construction industry and the public sector, the US provides 17 per cent of Irish jobs.
The US invests twice as much in Ireland as it does in China.
US firms contribute €2.7bn in corporate tax to Brian Cowen.
http://www.unison.ie/business/stories.p ... si=1723379 [free registration required]

US firms were also responsible for 87% of our exports in 2005.

The free lunch has yet to be invented - the tipping point for the Irish economy
http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusiness ... 6332.shtml
[/list]


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2006 6:41 pm 
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Joined: Nov 8, 2006
Posts: 23
I think the effect of recent media coverage will be to make potential first time buyers a bit more cautious about dipping their toes in the water. For a real change in sentiment though, I think we'll need a Herald or Irish Times front page which literally spells out "Housing prices likely to fall in 2007". For a "let's wait and see how prices go, even if it means renting for a while" mentality to take hold, the broader public has to begin to share the feeling on this thread - and the AAM one - that prices could actually go down.

And then, exacerbated by more interest rate hikes, over-supply, and tighter bank lending, the wheels will properly come off.

It's very interesting that even the VI's like McArdle are now calling for restricted supply; it shows they think other options have run out, and, effectively, the unemployment which will be provoked by cutting back construction is the lesser evil in the long run.


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