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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2015 2:07 pm 
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Too Big to Fail

Joined: Feb 6, 2007
Posts: 4199
irish_bob wrote:
true , the pin seemed to be patiently waiting for the day when the average 3 bed semi in Dublin was 90 k

Obvious strawman is obvious.

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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Tue Jul 14, 2015 6:49 am 
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Single Home Owner

Joined: Jan 16, 2015
Posts: 170
Prices are definitely dropping again.

Who'd want to be a landlord in this country? It's not worth it under 10% levels - you're better off getting a second job, investing in something else or starting a business, etc.

I think properties at the bottom end of the market are holding up a little bit. Still a fair few FTBers in their 30s and 40s, not to mention investors seeking rent allowance. Even then, I wouldn't wish chasing that on anyone. If you're a small fry, it's a mug's game.


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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Tue Jul 14, 2015 8:18 am 
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Single Home Owner

Joined: Sep 27, 2013
Posts: 189
xrp wrote:
Prices are definitely dropping again.

Who'd want to be a landlord in this country? It's not worth it under 10% levels - you're better off getting a second job, investing in something else or starting a business, etc.

I think properties at the bottom end of the market are holding up a little bit. Still a fair few FTBers in their 30s and 40s, not to mention investors seeking rent allowance. Even then, I wouldn't wish chasing that on anyone. If you're a small fry, it's a mug's game.


Given that interest rates are so low and that playing the stock exchange for the average punter is the same as walking into Paddy Power then there will always be people interested in property.


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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Tue Jul 14, 2015 10:55 am 
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Neo Landlord

Joined: Aug 26, 2012
Posts: 273
xrp wrote:
Prices are definitely dropping again.

Who'd want to be a landlord in this country? It's not worth it under 10% levels - you're better off getting a second job, investing in something else or starting a business, etc.

I think properties at the bottom end of the market are holding up a little bit. Still a fair few FTBers in their 30s and 40s, not to mention investors seeking rent allowance. Even then, I wouldn't wish chasing that on anyone. If you're a small fry, it's a mug's game.


savings and bond rates are at record lows and stocks pay an average dividend of no more than 3% , property is providing a very good return right now in this country relatively speaking


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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Tue Jul 14, 2015 10:56 am 
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Neo Landlord

Joined: Aug 26, 2012
Posts: 273
super wrote:
xrp wrote:
Prices are definitely dropping again.

Who'd want to be a landlord in this country? It's not worth it under 10% levels - you're better off getting a second job, investing in something else or starting a business, etc.

I think properties at the bottom end of the market are holding up a little bit. Still a fair few FTBers in their 30s and 40s, not to mention investors seeking rent allowance. Even then, I wouldn't wish chasing that on anyone. If you're a small fry, it's a mug's game.


Given that interest rates are so low and that playing the stock exchange for the average punter is the same as walking into Paddy Power then there will always be people interested in property.



add to that , irish people love property and will always buy it if they can


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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Tue Jul 14, 2015 11:17 am 
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Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Apr 9, 2014
Posts: 1867
xrp wrote:
Prices are definitely dropping again.

Who'd want to be a landlord in this country? It's not worth it under 10% levels - you're better off getting a second job, investing in something else or starting a business, etc.

I think properties at the bottom end of the market are holding up a little bit. Still a fair few FTBers in their 30s and 40s, not to mention investors seeking rent allowance. Even then, I wouldn't wish chasing that on anyone. If you're a small fry, it's a mug's game.

Are you speaking with experience of being a landlord :)


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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:52 am 
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Property Magnate

Joined: Nov 8, 2006
Posts: 513
Honohan to meet estate agents over lending rules
Central Bank governor Patrick Honohan has called in estate agents to discuss the property market, with the ­impact of lending restrictions on property sales expected to feature prominently.
It follows a call from Finance Minister Michael Noonan for the Central Bank to review the rules, which he said are preventing first-time buyers from purchasing starter homes.
The rules are also said to be contributing to spiralling rents. This is because younger ­people are unable to get a ­larger deposit together to take out a mortgage and are instead being forced to rent for longer than they expected.
However, others see the rules - which were introduced last February and demand larger deposits for mortgages and put restrictions on the amount that can be borrowed - as acting to put a brake on runaway house price inflation.


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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:58 am 
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Too Big to Fail
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Joined: Mar 7, 2012
Posts: 3260
Location: Lovely Leitrim
bedsit wrote:
However, others* see the rules - which were introduced last February and demand larger deposits for mortgages and put restrictions on the amount that can be borrowed - as acting to put a brake on runaway house price inflation.


* i.e. non VIs

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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Sun Oct 11, 2015 4:29 pm 
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Too Big to Fail

Joined: Aug 8, 2008
Posts: 3147
Location: Cathair na dTreabh
The Times doing its best
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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:35 am 
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Property Magnate

Joined: Nov 8, 2006
Posts: 513
Some interesting commentary in this article ...

How Nama and Gerry Gannon unlocked Belcamp

Just before Christmas Eve, Gerry Gannon, the high-profile developer and member of the so-called Maple 10, lodged a planning application for a large development at Belcamp on the Malahide Road.

A back-of-the-envelope calculation, based on the size of the development (31,000sq m) and the prices being sought for comparable houses, indicates Gannon will realise about €55 million in sales at current prices. A back-of-the-envelope calculation, based on the size of the development (31,000sq m) and the prices being sought for comparable houses, indicates Gannon will realise about €55 million in sales at current prices. Construction costs will be somewhere in the region of €35 million based on published industry rates. Gannon Properties will obviously be able to avail of various economies of scale but the €35 million figure does not include site works, development levies and various other costs. This leaves Gannon Properties with a margin of €20 million which is almost completely wiped out by the cost of acquiring the site at approximately €19 million. This figure is arrived at by taking the €105 million that Gannon paid for the 81-hectare site in 2004 and assigning a pro-rata value of €19.5 million to the 15 hectares he will be building on.

This in a nutshell is the problem that confronts developers. If you are trying to recoup the cost of land you bought prior to the crash, then developing it is marginally profitable at best, given house prices at the moment. It would appear, however, that many other developers are either unwilling or unable to to write down the value of their sites to a level which is appropriate to the market value of the houses they want to build on them. They seem to be hanging on in the hope that prices can be forced up to a level where they can cover the original cost of their sites and make a profit. For this they need two things: people prepared to take on mortgages that are too big for their incomes, and banks willing to lend to them. As we know to our cost, there is no shortage of either.


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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:47 am 
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Nationalised
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Joined: Feb 9, 2010
Posts: 9019
bedsit wrote:
Some interesting commentary in this article ...

Thanks for sharing that. The market is still totally dysfunctional. If NAMA had not been created, much land could have been acquired pretty cheaply, developed, and sold profitably without the millstone of Bubble era sunk costs.


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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:54 am 
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Speculator

Joined: Jan 11, 2009
Posts: 496
bedsit wrote:
Some interesting commentary in this article ...

How Nama and Gerry Gannon unlocked Belcamp

Just before Christmas Eve, Gerry Gannon, the high-profile developer and member of the so-called Maple 10, lodged a planning application for a large development at Belcamp on the Malahide Road.

A back-of-the-envelope calculation, based on the size of the development (31,000sq m) and the prices being sought for comparable houses, indicates Gannon will realise about €55 million in sales at current prices. A back-of-the-envelope calculation, based on the size of the development (31,000sq m) and the prices being sought for comparable houses, indicates Gannon will realise about €55 million in sales at current prices. Construction costs will be somewhere in the region of €35 million based on published industry rates. Gannon Properties will obviously be able to avail of various economies of scale but the €35 million figure does not include site works, development levies and various other costs. This leaves Gannon Properties with a margin of €20 million which is almost completely wiped out by the cost of acquiring the site at approximately €19 million. This figure is arrived at by taking the €105 million that Gannon paid for the 81-hectare site in 2004 and assigning a pro-rata value of €19.5 million to the 15 hectares he will be building on.

This in a nutshell is the problem that confronts developers. If you are trying to recoup the cost of land you bought prior to the crash, then developing it is marginally profitable at best, given house prices at the moment. It would appear, however, that many other developers are either unwilling or unable to to write down the value of their sites to a level which is appropriate to the market value of the houses they want to build on them. They seem to be hanging on in the hope that prices can be forced up to a level where they can cover the original cost of their sites and make a profit. For this they need two things: people prepared to take on mortgages that are too big for their incomes, and banks willing to lend to them. As we know to our cost, there is no shortage of either.


"They seem to be hanging on in the hope that prices can be forced up to a level where they can cover the original cost of their sites and make a profit" ...in other words peak prices.

Peak was caused by a perfect and prolonged storm ...almost zero restrictions on credit, lower direct and indirect taxes, practically no unemployment etc etc ....collectively know now as ...."the madness"

if we lurge back to madness levels any time soon (say 2020 due to supply ) ..then the volatility during the period 2000-2020 would be very extreme and unsustainable for what is meant to be a ...long play, staid market...it's residential property ffs ..not Vegas ...if prices keep rising back to those levels ...its only matter of time til they fall back significantly ...why do people assume the volatility will end when they want it to end ....with prices on a high?

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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:48 pm 
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Too Big to Fail
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Posts: 3260
Location: Lovely Leitrim
Last line of the article sums up the entire clusterfcuk of the "boom" years:

But one suspects it involves a write-down of the value of the site – which either directly or indirectly falls on the taxpayer’s shoulders.

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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:50 pm 
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Too Big to Fail
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Joined: Aug 21, 2009
Posts: 4403
Location: Mesopotatia
Barney Gumble wrote:
bedsit wrote:
Some interesting commentary in this article ...

Thanks for sharing that. The market is still totally dysfunctional. If NAMA had not been created, much land could have been acquired pretty cheaply, developed, and sold profitably without the millstone of Bubble era sunk costs.


That's it in a nutshell.

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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Wed Jan 13, 2016 2:08 pm 
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Of Systemic Importance

Joined: Nov 4, 2011
Posts: 5556
Location: SthDub
Fair play to McManus for coming out with this
Quote:
For this they need two things: people prepared to take on mortgages that are too big for their incomes, and banks willing to lend to them. As we know to our cost, there is no shortage of either.
Hence the decision of the Central Bank to step in and put prudent limits on what people can borrow as a proportion of their salary. It has stopped reckless lending and also put house-price inflation on a sensible footing. Both of these traits are desirable in any well-run economy so some other way must be found to unlock sites for development.


He'll be in bother with the Bosses in the IT over sentiments like that!


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