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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2015 10:46 am 
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straightoutta wrote:
The other angle is impact on suppy. People may just stop selling which may prop prices 'up' somewhat but slow the speed of everything down.



Normally I would agree, however I think the reverse will happen this time.
A lot of sellers are those who held off in the bust.
They waited for the market to rise, but don't want to get caught with their pants down the second time round.

Think about people's experience of a falling market and ask yourself how that will affect their behaviour.


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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2015 10:58 am 
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Private Tenant

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Interesting.

Seller panic meets buyer greed/loss of confidence against a backdrop of a pan-European crisis....

Can sellers move quickly enough to capture the relatively modest gains of last 2 years?


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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2015 11:15 am 
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straightoutta wrote:
Interesting.

Seller panic meets buyer greed/loss of confidence against a backdrop of a pan-European crisis....

Can sellers move quickly enough to capture the relatively modest gains of last 2 years?


I wouldn't get too carried away by this right now....unless EA's really start pushing vendors to lower expectations then I think it will be a long and drawn out process (unfortunately :()

Also I wouldn't call the gains over the past 3 years or so modest


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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2015 11:57 am 
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Posts: 188
beattie wrote:
straightoutta wrote:
Interesting.

Seller panic meets buyer greed/loss of confidence against a backdrop of a pan-European crisis....

Can sellers move quickly enough to capture the relatively modest gains of last 2 years?


I wouldn't get too carried away by this right now....unless EA's really start pushing vendors to lower expectations then I think it will be a long and drawn out process (unfortunately :()

Also I wouldn't call the gains over the past 3 years or so modest


Definitely not modest gains but I said here a few months back that I'd be happy to buy if prices were 10% less than what they were then. According to this article we are over halfway there already. I know a lot of people got caught out by the rate of increase in 2014 so will be happy to buy with even a modest drawback. I for one wont be chasing the bottom this time.


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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2015 12:19 pm 
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Private Tenant

Joined: Jan 21, 2015
Posts: 25
super wrote:
beattie wrote:
straightoutta wrote:
Interesting.

Seller panic meets buyer greed/loss of confidence against a backdrop of a pan-European crisis....

Can sellers move quickly enough to capture the relatively modest gains of last 2 years?


I wouldn't get too carried away by this right now....unless EA's really start pushing vendors to lower expectations then I think it will be a long and drawn out process (unfortunately :()

Also I wouldn't call the gains over the past 3 years or so modest


Definitely not modest gains but I said here a few months back that I'd be happy to buy if prices were 10% less than what they were then. According to this article we are over halfway there already. I know a lot of people got caught out by the rate of increase in 2014 so will be happy to buy with even a modest drawback. I for one wont be chasing the bottom this time.


I won't be chasing the bottom either. Foolishly listening to a popular opinion on here of further drops cost me circa 100,000 euro through subsequent price increases and 5 extra years of renting. Will buy in the next few months and end the torture of speculation on which way the market is going.


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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2015 12:34 pm 
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Private Tenant

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Posts: 27
Gains for some are strong.

I said "can sellers move quickly enough to capture relatively modest gains."

If 7% gone already then speed is of the essence....

I also wonder if some 'real' drivers of price like wages rising and/or tax cuts will start to kick in.


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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2015 1:25 pm 
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Posts: 188
Palarial wrote:
I won't be chasing the bottom either. Foolishly listening to a popular opinion on here of further drops cost me circa 100,000 euro through subsequent price increases and 5 extra years of renting. Will buy in the next few months and end the torture of speculation on which way the market is going.


Its really only the past 18 months that the popular opinion on here was wrong but even at that some people called the bottom spot on e.g. 2Pack. The problem is most people chose not to listen because it went against what they wanted to hear. The pin is the place where people come to reaffirm their own belief about where they see (or want to see) property prices heading. They tend to block out opinions that contradict their own. The biggest lesson I've learned over time on this site is to listen to both the bulls and the bears rather than ignoring the bears as I did when I started.


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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2015 4:50 pm 
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Neo Landlord

Joined: Aug 26, 2012
Posts: 240
super wrote:
Palarial wrote:
I won't be chasing the bottom either. Foolishly listening to a popular opinion on here of further drops cost me circa 100,000 euro through subsequent price increases and 5 extra years of renting. Will buy in the next few months and end the torture of speculation on which way the market is going.


Its really only the past 18 months that the popular opinion on here was wrong but even at that some people called the bottom spot on e.g. 2Pack. The problem is most people chose not to listen because it went against what they wanted to hear. The pin is the place where people come to reaffirm their own belief about where they see (or want to see) property prices heading. They tend to block out opinions that contradict their own. The biggest lesson I've learned over time on this site is to listen to both the bulls and the bears rather than ignoring the bears as I did when I started.



the very essence of this site is ultra bearishness to a crank level and then some

its like this with the property market

Dublin south hit the bottom the end of 2011
Dublin north hit the bottom the spring of 2012
galway city hit the bottom the end of 2012
cork city around the same time
commuter belt hit the bottom the third quarter of 2013
limerick city hit the bottom last summer


the media was incredibly slow in reporting the property recovery but that's because the media either over eggs it on the upside or the downside , once the narrative sets in , it takes a while to reverse


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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2015 4:51 pm 
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super wrote:
Palarial wrote:
I won't be chasing the bottom either. Foolishly listening to a popular opinion on here of further drops cost me circa 100,000 euro through subsequent price increases and 5 extra years of renting. Will buy in the next few months and end the torture of speculation on which way the market is going.


Its really only the past 18 months that the popular opinion on here was wrong but even at that some people called the bottom spot on e.g. 2Pack. The problem is most people chose not to listen because it went against what they wanted to hear. The pin is the place where people come to reaffirm their own belief about where they see (or want to see) property prices heading. They tend to block out opinions that contradict their own. The biggest lesson I've learned over time on this site is to listen to both the bulls and the bears rather than ignoring the bears as I did when I started.


Yes it wasn't the primary funciton of ethos of the pin to bottom spot. There are other sites for that kind of lark! :oops:

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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2015 6:05 pm 
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Luan wrote:
mambo wrote:
National newspaper reporting up to 7% fall in Dublin prices in just 3 months. Might force some sellers to reevaluate their asking prices?
http://www.independent.ie/business/pers ... 53656.html

But, but, but .......

You can't believe anything written in the Indo :)


This is the correct answer. If the Indo say it’s 7%, that’s almost certainly the wrong number. It appears to be based on a “survey” by REA. No methodology released.

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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2015 6:08 pm 
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Neo Landlord

Joined: Aug 26, 2012
Posts: 240
Open Window wrote:
super wrote:
Palarial wrote:
I won't be chasing the bottom either. Foolishly listening to a popular opinion on here of further drops cost me circa 100,000 euro through subsequent price increases and 5 extra years of renting. Will buy in the next few months and end the torture of speculation on which way the market is going.


Its really only the past 18 months that the popular opinion on here was wrong but even at that some people called the bottom spot on e.g. 2Pack. The problem is most people chose not to listen because it went against what they wanted to hear. The pin is the place where people come to reaffirm their own belief about where they see (or want to see) property prices heading. They tend to block out opinions that contradict their own. The biggest lesson I've learned over time on this site is to listen to both the bulls and the bears rather than ignoring the bears as I did when I started.


Yes it wasn't the primary funciton of ethos of the pin to bottom spot. There are other sites for that kind of lark! :oops:



true , the pin seemed to be patiently waiting for the day when the average 3 bed semi in Dublin was 90 k


Last edited by irish_bob on Mon Jul 06, 2015 8:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2015 6:35 pm 
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Joined: Sep 27, 2013
Posts: 188
irish_bob wrote:
Open Window wrote:
super wrote:
Palarial wrote:
I won't be chasing the bottom either. Foolishly listening to a popular opinion on here of further drops cost me circa 100,000 euro through subsequent price increases and 5 extra years of renting. Will buy in the next few months and end the torture of speculation on which way the market is going.


Its really only the past 18 months that the popular opinion on here was wrong but even at that some people called the bottom spot on e.g. 2Pack. The problem is most people chose not to listen because it went against what they wanted to hear. The pin is the place where people come to reaffirm their own belief about where they see (or want to see) property prices heading. They tend to block out opinions that contradict their own. The biggest lesson I've learned over time on this site is to listen to both the bulls and the bears rather than ignoring the bears as I did when I started.


Yes it wasn't the primary funciton of ethos of the pin to bottom spot. There are other sites for that kind of lark! :oops:



true , the pin seemed to be patiently waiting for the day when the average 3 bed semi in Dublin as 90 k


Most of them pin. You always had Landlord and a few others talking up prices and getting beat up for it. Maybe if the pin wasn't so hard on the Bulls then the general non informed user (myself included) may have seen the upswing coming.


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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2015 10:51 pm 
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There is a very understandable and historically accepted x time income prevalence that spoke to the prudent in all of us.

I think many argued that moving away form that was the big mistake. There have been examples where a semi-d outside of dublin and possibly some in dublin went below 90k for a time and some are still there.

I've seen people now realise what happened far too late in the 60-ish generation but they didn't pay so much mind since they got their gaffs in early 20's at the low income to value to ratio but now see their kids destroyed with NE and what not.

Nothing wrong with the 2/3 times income argument for a typical family abode which if you look at the average industrial wage points to a not too dissimilar figure.

Reducing that down people want to see normalcy and stability when trying to house themselves and rightly so each other. It should not be an all or nothing one way bet in your life that can ruin you. It's a very ordinary and unsurprising requirement of any person, family, tribe or highly organised society to require shelter. Where they can make a home.

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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2015 6:16 am 
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Posts: 210
Latest Daft report:

http://www.daft.ie/report/q2-2015-daft-house-price-report.pdf


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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2015 6:37 am 
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Too Big to Fail

Joined: Sep 13, 2012
Posts: 4229
Billy Bob wrote:

Daft wrote:
And the solution to macroprudential measures encouraging people to live further out is not to remove those measures – instead, it is to address the high cost of building new homes,

Or maybe improve public transport capacity.

I know people based in London offices who do 10am-3pm in the office and the rest of their working day on the train. They get a very high quality of life. The last time I attempted to commute by train (about 2009) in to Dublin I couldn't regularly get a seat so it was effectively impossible to work.

Meath is largely empty and yet all the trains are packed like sardines.

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