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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Wed Jan 13, 2016 2:58 pm 
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Too Big to Fail

Joined: Sep 13, 2012
Posts: 4348
"A back-of-the-envelope calculation, based on the size of the development (31,000sq m) and the prices being sought for comparable houses, indicates Gannon will realise about €55 million in sales at current prices. Construction costs will be somewhere in the region of €35 million based on published industry rates"

1129/sqm can't be right. Sure, it costs 300k to build an apartment. :D

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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Wed Jan 13, 2016 4:37 pm 
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Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Apr 3, 2015
Posts: 1106
Eschatologist wrote:
"A back-of-the-envelope calculation, based on the size of the development (31,000sq m) and the prices being sought for comparable houses, indicates Gannon will realise about €55 million in sales at current prices. Construction costs will be somewhere in the region of €35 million based on published industry rates"

1129/sqm can't be right. Sure, it costs 300k to build an apartment. :D


Yeah, that seems a bit high alright. I find it very odd that Gannon or other developers would not have already been forced to write-down the value of the land in their accounts. Unless of course he bought it in his personal name. :?


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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Fri Apr 29, 2016 7:53 am 
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Property Magnate

Joined: Nov 8, 2006
Posts: 511
Just noticed that since that SF seems to have posted about 20 ads on myhome for South Dublin homes overnight (from 2am onwards). Are these just old properties being posted as "new" or genuinely new ads? Seems like a bit of a desperate move on their part.


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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:57 pm 
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Under CAB Investigation
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Joined: Apr 2, 2008
Posts: 1984
Location: Cork and Kerry
My feeling is that we are on the verge now of Bubble Popping time.
In about 6 months, at the end of summer, when people will be too tired, too lazy, too scared to do anything about it other than to commit the next generation of school leavers to exile abroad.

Digger out this morning at 6am tearing down an old shop for re-development in Killarney.
Various other Himac excavators here there and everywhere doing odd jobs, including agricultural work where I cannot see any economic worthwhile basis (aside perhaps for forrestry but what I've seen is for grazing).
Houses being thrown up.

What is going on?

We are peaking. Getting very close now to the top.

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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 2:49 pm 
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Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Apr 9, 2014
Posts: 1657
Deja-vue on bearish predictions :)

For the avoidance of doubt there will be another crash but it is at least 3 years away.

The only glimmer of light for the bears is if "Uncle Simon" magics up 100k houses as against new ESB connections to meet the growing demand.


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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 8:53 pm 
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Homeless

Joined: Jun 22, 2016
Posts: 24
wii4miinow wrote:
My feeling is that we are on the verge now of Bubble Popping time.
In about 6 months, at the end of summer......We are peaking. Getting very close now to the top.


I used to be bearish but the reality of house hunting in Dublin over the last year has just smothered the bearish principles I used to have.
Judging from pre and post-Christmas viewings/bids around Killester/Raheny, I don't see any steam escaping any time soon.
If anything, I believe things are ramping up owing to:
- folk who've lost out in one bidding war, going into the next one with more gusto.
- that lovely bit of goal-post moving in regard to deposits required for FTBs.
- supply not not improving.

I check the property price register every week...recently some weeks results have made grim reading :(


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 Post subject: Re: Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market
PostPosted: Wed Feb 15, 2017 4:28 pm 
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Of Systemic Importance

Joined: Nov 4, 2011
Posts: 5115
Location: SthDub
No bubble says 'Industry leader'...and printed in the Irish Times no less. So thats that...time to sell up now !!!
The opening paragraphs are powerful and contain some bold statements/terminology which may make your blood boil!

A new property bubble will not happen, says industry leader
Opinion: Government policy cost first-time buyers while vulture funds profited
Pat Davitt, chief executive of IPAV, the Institute of Professional Auctioneers & Valuers
http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-styl ... -1.2966534
Quote:
Fears of another property bubble are unfounded and misleading. Lately one senior academic stated in the media: “when you have a return to very generous credit, it effectively pushes prices significantly higher.”
But where is the evidence of a return to “very generous credit”? Figures compiled by the Banking & Payments Federation Ireland show that €3.9 billion in new mortgage lending was issued in 2014, less than half of what could be considered normal and a mere 10 per cent of that issued in 2006.
Lending in 2014 was on an upward trajectory because property prices had finally lifted off the floor and a seven-year Capital Gains Tax incentive, designed to encourage people to buy properties, was about to run out in December of that year.
Property prices fell, on average, by 54.9 per cent from 2007 to 2012. To reach 2006 levels again, not that anyone would want that, prices would have to increase by an average of 110 per cent, not the 8-20 per cent levels that now prompt headlines of “soaring”, “surging” or “bubble” property prices.
At a time when property prices were beginning to recover, having sank to 1980s levels, the Central Bank panicked and moved rapidly to restrict lending making it virtually impossible for first-time buyers and those wishing to move house – many who had bought at the height of the market – to buy when interest rates were and are at historical lows. Property prices are now well past the low point and thousands have missed the best values.
The rules stymied a market in recovery, robbed entrepreneurial confidence and spun the wheel of fortune in favour of cash buyers and investment funds.
Had it been otherwise we would now have a healthy cohort of young first-time buyers with valuable homes, contributing to their personal wealth over the longer term. Instead they are consigned largely to renting, and incredibly, at prices greater than the cost of servicing a mortgage. With such great value in the market these people should have been facilitated with a zero deposit requirement, once they had affordability over the medium- to long-term....


Bravo!


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