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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Mon Apr 11, 2016 1:26 pm 
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Posts: 166
Open Window wrote:
Mantissa wrote:
Yea surely approvals maybe be granted by two Banks or more for the same property or is it too far into the process for that too occur, how else did people bid up the price and blow up the property market?

To be honest I'm not 100% after rereading the notes


From my reading of the notes What is a mortgage approval? the original definition is that approvals are only counted
"after a valuation report and any other necessary documentation have been received" so after a sale agreed.

While this could possibly happen with more than one bank it is unlikely that a person would pay for more than one valuation report with separate banks, the only duplication would be where for some reason after getting the bank valuation and approval someone pulls out and then another person goes sale agreed so one approval at a time and these would probably not be duplicated in a 3 month rolling average.

However, I think this may now have changed from the definition above to an approval which "contains the Notice of important information to be included in a housing loan agreement specified in the Consumer Credit Act 1995"

I'm not clear whether this loosens the criteria for inclusion, maintain it or increase it?


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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Mon Apr 11, 2016 1:41 pm 
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Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Jan 2, 2008
Posts: 1478
Mantissa wrote:
ixus wrote:
Quote:
In Budget 2012, a new incentive relief from CGT was introduced for the first 7 years of ownership for properties bought between 7 December 2011 and the end of 2013 (extended to the end of 2014 in Budget 2014), where the property is held for more than 7 years. The relief applies to all property, whether residential or non-residential. The relief does not apply if a property is sold within 7 years of its acquisition. If it is sold more than 7 years after acquisition and a gain is made on the sale, relief will be given for the initial 7-year holding period


Why not reduce to 3yrs as it has served its purpose. Reduce cgt to a level that will encourage transactions.

Because then people would start dumping now.


Make it 4yrs so only those from 2012 would be selling. Reduces ownership supply problem

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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Tue May 24, 2016 12:03 pm 
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Too Big to Fail
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Analysis of the Q1 2016 BPFI / PwC Mortgage Market Profile figures

http://www.bpfi.ie/publications/bpfi-mo ... drawdowns/

Mortgage Lending by Volume
Q2 2015: 6,010
Q3 2015: 6,984
Q4 2015: 7,565
Q1 2016: 5,103 (2,599 FTB + 1,760 Mover +305 RIL + 392*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)

Analysis
a) Current v Peak and Trough by Volume:
Current: Q1 2016 5,103
Peak: Q4 2005 37,015
Trough: Q1 2013 1,925
This shows Q1 2016 is -86.2% lower than Peak and +165.1% higher than Trough

b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Volume:
Peak: Q4 2005 37,015
Trough: Q1 2013 1,925
This shows a change of -94.8% from highest to lowest Volume of mortgages

c) Annual Change by Volume:
In Q2 2014 to Q1 2015 there were 23,586 mortgages by Volume or 1,965 per month
In Q2 2015 to Q1 2016 there were 25,662 mortgages by Volume or 2,139 per month
This shows a change of +8.8% from 12 months previously


Mortgage Lending by Value €m
Q2 2015: 1,085m
Q3 2015: 1,323m
Q4 2015: 1,403m
Q1 2016: 989m (462m FTB + 405m Mover + 36m RIL + 78m*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)

Analysis
a) Current v Peak and Trough by Value €m:
Current: Q1 2016 989m
Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m
Trough: Q1 2013 327m
This shows Q1 2016 is -88.9% lower than Peak and +202.9% higher than Trough

b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Value:
Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m
Trough: Q1 2013 327m
This shows a change of -96.4% from highest to lowest by Value of mortgages

c) Annual Change by Value:
In Q2 2014 to Q1 2015 4,308m was lent for mortgage by Value or 359m per month
In Q2 2015 to Q1 2016 4,800m was lent for mortgages by Value or 400m per month
This shows a change of +11.4% from 12 months previously


Average Loan by Value €

First-time Buyer
a) Change since Peak: Q1 2016 177,722 vs Peak Q1 2008 251,831. Fall since Peak -29.4%
b) Change since Trough: Q1 2016 177,722 vs Trough Q1 2013 150,292. Rise since Trough +18.3%
c) Annual change: Q1 2016 177,722 vs Q1 2015 166,266. Annual increase +6.9%

Mover Purchaser
a) Change since Peak: Q1 2016 230,284 vs Peak Q1 2008 281,944. Fall since Peak –18.%
b) Change since Trough: Q1 2016 230,284 vs Trough Q2 2013 199,219. Rise since Trough +15.6%
c) Annual change: Q1 2016 230,284 vs Q1 2015 213,203. Annual increase +8.0%

Residential Investment Letting
a) Change since Peak: Q1 2016 118,689 vs Peak Q2 2008 327,927. Fall since Peak -63.8%
b) Change since Trough: Q1 2016 118,689vs Trough Q2 2014 101,606. Rise since Trough +16.8%
c) Annual change: Q1 2016 118,689vs Q1 2015 112,849. Annual increase +5.2%

Re-mortgage
a) Change since Peak: Q1 2016 197,704 vs Peak Q1 2008 267,327. Fall since Peak -26.0%
b) Change since Trough: Q1 2016 197,704 vs Trough Q4 2012 136,174. Rise since Trough +45.2%
c) Annual change: Q1 2016 197,704vs Q1 2015 238,720. Annual decrease -17.2%


Note 1: BPFI states "We estimate that the data covers well in excess of 95% of the mortgage market." So I add 5% to the Volume and Value figures.

Note 2: I've included 50% of each quarter's Re-Mortgages figure, as BPFI defines it as "a loan which is issued by one lender to refinance an existing mortgage with another lender. This may or may not include further equity release."

Note 3: I exclude Top-ups, as BPFI defines it as "a further mortgage advance to an existing borrower which is issued to finance expenditure other than house purchase."


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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Mon Jul 25, 2016 9:01 pm 
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Did these calcs in Aug 2014. Amazed, or not, it takes TWO years to compare two excel sheets and come up with some data. Think it took me 30mins at the time and that was just to parse the Mortgage lending from website.....

ixus wrote:
Quote:
Mortgage Lending by Volume
Q3, 2013 4,089
Q4, 2014 4,804
Q1, 2014 3,160
Q2, 2014 4,396 (2,440 FTB + 1,709 Mover + 188 RIL + 108*50% Re-Mortgage)

Total in past 12 months 16,449


Total Transactions on ppr 36,259 (averaging 9K per Q) - Almost 20K (circa 55%) bought straight for cash.

.......

Quote:
Mortgage Lending by Value €m
Q3, 2013 717
Q4, 2013 864
Q1, 2014 544
Q2, 2014 784 (396 FTB + 358 Mover + 19 RIL + 21*50% Re-Mortgage)

Total in past 12 months 2,909


Total transactions on ppr 7,621 €mln (averaging 1,905€mln per Q) - 4.7 €bln (circa 62%) outright cash purchases.

[Numbers per today's ppr]

Would love to know what the average % the deposit is.

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The pigeon just knocks all the pieces over.
Then shits all over the board.
Then struts around like it won.”


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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Tue Aug 16, 2016 2:22 pm 
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Too Big to Fail
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Joined: Aug 20, 2009
Posts: 4771
Analysis of the Q2 2016 BPFI / PwC Mortgage Market Profile figures

http://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2 ... -FINAL.pdf

Mortgage Lending by Volume
Q3 2015: 6,824
Q4 2015: 7,452
Q1 2016: 5,086
Q2 2016: 6,314 (3,297 FTB +2,153 Mover +317 RIL + 493*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)

Analysis
a) Current v Peak and Trough by Volume:
Current: Q2 2016 6,314
Peak: Q4 2005 37,015
Trough: Q1 2013 1,925
This shows Q1 2016 is -82.9% lower than Peak and +228.0% higher than Trough

b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Volume:
Peak: Q4 2005 37,015
Trough: Q1 2013 1,925
This shows a change of -94.8% from highest to lowest Volume of mortgages

c) Annual Change by Volume:
In Q3 2014 to Q2 2015 there were 24,821 mortgages by Volume or 2,068 per month
In Q3 2015 to Q2 2016 there were 25,677 mortgages by Volume or 2,140 per month
This shows a change of +3.4% from 12 months previously


Mortgage Lending by Value €m
Q3 2015: 1,329m
Q4 2015: 1,398m
Q1 2016: 976m
Q2 2016: 1,255m (603m FTB + 500m Mover + 38m RIL + 108m*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)

Analysis
a) Current v Peak and Trough by Value €m:
Current: Q2 2016 1,255m
Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m
Trough: Q1 2013 327m
This shows Q2 2016 is -86.0% lower than Peak and +284.2% higher than Trough

b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Value:
Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m
Trough: Q1 2013 327m
This shows a change of -96.4% from highest to lowest by Value of mortgages

c) Annual Change by Value:
In Q3 2014 to Q2 2015 4,587m was lent for mortgage by Value or 382m per month
In Q3 2015 to Q2 2016 4,957m was lent for mortgages by Value or 413m per month
This shows a change of +8.1% from 12 months previously


Average Loan by Value €

First-time Buyer
a) Change since Peak: Q2 2016 182,894 vs Peak Q1 2008 251,831. Fall since Peak -27.4%
b) Change since Trough: Q2 2016 182,894 vs Trough Q1 2013 150,292. Rise since Trough +21.7%
c) Annual change: Q2 2016 182,894 vs Q2 2015 171,618. Annual increase +6.6%

Mover Purchaser
a) Change since Peak: Q2 2016 232,281 vs Peak Q1 2008 281,944. Fall since Peak –17.6%
b) Change since Trough: Q2 2016 232,281 vs Trough Q2 2013 197,756. Rise since Trough +17.5%
c) Annual change: Q2 2016 232,281 vs Q2 2015 212,636. Annual increase +9.2%

Residential Investment Letting
a) Change since Peak: Q2 2016 119,243 vs Peak Q2 2008 327,927. Fall since Peak -63.6%
b) Change since Trough: Q2 2016 119,243 vs Trough Q2 2014 101,606. Rise since Trough +17.4%
c) Annual change: Q2 2016 119,243 vs Q2 2015 107,451. Annual increase +11.0%

Re-mortgage
a) Change since Peak: Q2 2016 218,256 vs Peak Q1 2008 267,327. Fall since Peak -18.4%
b) Change since Trough: Q2 2016 218,256 vs Trough Q4 2012 136,174. Rise since Trough +60.3%
c) Annual change: Q2 2016 218,256 vs Q2 2015 235,943. Annual decrease -7.5%


Note 1: BPFI states "We estimate that the data covers well in excess of 95% of the mortgage market." So I add 5% to the Volume and Value figures.

Note 2: I've included 50% of each quarter's Re-Mortgages figure, as BPFI defines it as "a loan which is issued by one lender to refinance an existing mortgage with another lender. This may or may not include further equity release."

Note 3: I exclude Top-ups, as BPFI defines it as "a further mortgage advance to an existing borrower which is issued to finance expenditure other than house purchase."


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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Tue Aug 16, 2016 3:19 pm 
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Too Big to Fail

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Posts: 4354
Look at the average FTB value go up as (presumably) deposits are saved/"found".

Image

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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Tue Sep 27, 2016 9:38 am 
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Of Systemic Importance

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If only this could put to bed once and for all the 'controversy' about the CB rules being the problem inthe Irish property market

Mortgage approvals up by 50% from August 2015 ahead of Central Bank’s review; concerns mount that supply is
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/econ ... -1.2807093
Quote:
Mortgage approvals rose strongly in August, as the Central Bank’s restrictive lending rules did not appear to deter putative home buyers seeking loan approval for the autumn selling season. However commentators fear that shrinking supply means that there are now too many buyers chasing too few homes.
In August, some € 595 million in mortgages were approved, up by 50 per cent on the same month of 2015. In the three months ending August 2016, a total of 3,411 mortgages were approved, at a value of € 682 million. This was the highest volume, and value, of mortgage approvals, including purchase mortgage approvals, since the series began in January 2011. On a year-on-date basis, approvals of € 4.4 billion are now 17 per cent ahead of 2015, following a slow start to 2016.
The number of approvals rose by 25.7 per cent on an annual basis, while the value of approvals rose by 37.2 per cent. However, on a year-to-date basis, growth is more modest, with purchase volumes up by only 0.7 per cent and values up by 5.5 per cent.


Very smart commentators :roll:


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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Tue Sep 27, 2016 9:49 am 
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Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Apr 4, 2008
Posts: 2539
Quote:
However commentators fear that shrinking supply means that there are now too many buyers chasing too few homes


This is in the IT

The same "newspaper" attacks the CBI rules almost daily

Removing the CBI rules would increase demand and increase the amount people have to spend, it would merely increase prices if there is no supply increase

Are commentators stupid? Or do they not realise when they talk out of both sides of their mouth?

Yet again I ask the question - why the fuck would anyone pay money for this piece of shit publication?

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Borrowers seeking mortgages have had to resort to saving deposits, forcing many to sit by and watch house prices tumble without being able to do anything about it. Sunday Independent - June 1 2008

I know a lot of them, like [Jimmy] Flynn, [Noel] O’Flaherty and the Baileys. You meet the Baileys at Croke Park every time you go there. You can’t avoid getting a slap on the back going in from them. Most of these guys lost their shirt. I feel sorry for them - Bertie Ahern


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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Tue Sep 27, 2016 9:54 am 
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Can anyone tell me what the annual mortgage approval rate is ?


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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Tue Sep 27, 2016 10:27 am 
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Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Apr 4, 2008
Posts: 2539
mr_anderson wrote:
Can anyone tell me what the annual mortgage approval rate is ?


A pillar bank employee told me it was very high, there's self selection at play and also filtering of "bad" cases i.e. someone who would be rejected might not even get through the full application process

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Borrowers seeking mortgages have had to resort to saving deposits, forcing many to sit by and watch house prices tumble without being able to do anything about it. Sunday Independent - June 1 2008

I know a lot of them, like [Jimmy] Flynn, [Noel] O’Flaherty and the Baileys. You meet the Baileys at Croke Park every time you go there. You can’t avoid getting a slap on the back going in from them. Most of these guys lost their shirt. I feel sorry for them - Bertie Ahern


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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Tue Sep 27, 2016 5:51 pm 
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Property Magnate

Joined: Oct 12, 2014
Posts: 553
Location: Dublin
Renting And Proud! wrote:
mr_anderson wrote:
Can anyone tell me what the annual mortgage approval rate is ?


A pillar bank employee told me it was very high, there's self selection at play and also filtering of "bad" cases i.e. someone who would be rejected might not even get through the full application process

+1
When we were getting mortgage in 2014 I remember asking our broker if there were many mortgage application rejections post-boom. He said no - for the reasons outlined above. Most banks will turn down the mortgage before it "officially enters the appraisal system".

Allows the banks to spout nonsense like '85% of applications approved!"*


*...of the ones they consider to be valid applications.


Like Mr Anderson, I'd be curious about what the different bank stats are for mortgages "considered", and then actually approved/rejected. Then factor in those who went to a mortgage broker and fell at that hurdle.
A broker, if one could share high level data on here, might have a better breakdown.
People in the door, percentage applications submitted to bank, percentage of those submittals approved.


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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Tue Sep 27, 2016 6:32 pm 
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You also have to consider that as their online calculators improve people will self-select.

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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Tue Sep 27, 2016 9:08 pm 
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And formal rejection rates were higher back in the boom???


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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Tue Sep 27, 2016 10:05 pm 
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Joined: Oct 12, 2014
Posts: 553
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Skippy 3 wrote:
And formal rejection rates were higher back in the boom???

I've no idea, but I'd suspect not.
My Stephen Colbert-like "gut hunch" was that the rejection rate should be massively higher in the post-boom world, but like most things "gut-based" that I hadn't thought about for 10 seconds - it wasn't necessarily true according to the broker we used.

Again - I'd love to see meaningful numbers.
Any brokers out there with "hypothetical numbers"?


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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2016 8:28 pm 
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FTBer wrote:
Skippy 3 wrote:
And formal rejection rates were higher back in the boom???

I've no idea, but I'd suspect not.
My Stephen Colbert-like "gut hunch" was that the rejection rate should be massively higher in the post-boom world, but like most things "gut-based" that I hadn't thought about for 10 seconds - it wasn't necessarily true according to the broker we used.

Again - I'd love to see meaningful numbers.
Any brokers out there with "hypothetical numbers"?


My hunch would be the opposite -- in the CT days everyone applied for mortgages and *most* people got it. These days people expect it to be a nightmare so only apply if they have everything in order and the local bank person has given them an informal thumbs up. Equally a broker isn't going to submit an application that isn't pristine. I'd expect almost everyone who actually formally applies to get it.

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